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Forecasts of $20/t iron ore. The response? IO now $48/t.; Iron ore recovery offers budget boon hopes
Topic Started: 21 Feb 2016, 07:58 PM (42,870 Views)
Jimbo
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skamy
4 Mar 2016, 07:12 PM
The banks are raising on their own at the moment :( they think the market can take it.

Sqeezing the rind.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Trollie
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Andrew Judd
4 Mar 2016, 07:09 PM
Anybody got any ideas what is driving the iron ore price higher?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-28/iron-ore-rings-in-2016-with-port-stockpiles-at-seven-month-high

Rising stockpiles of ore in China are a precursor to further declines in steel output, Axiom Capital Management Inc. said in a report on Monday that repeated a forecast for ore prices to drop into the $20s. The global surplus may expand to 490 million tons in 2019 from 107 million tons this year, it said.

As policy makers steer Asia’s biggest economy away from investment-led growth, steel demand and production are contracting. Next year, supply will drop to about 783 million tons from 806 million tons in 2015, the China Iron & Steel Association has forecast.
It's probably because it's under valued. Cut through all the emotional click bait articles and you can see steel output has dropped a mere 3%, but the iron ore price dropped 60%.
It's following the steel futures, as the price for steel rises the traders are following it up because the supposed supply glut is rubbish made up by the above click baiters

Posted Image

Think about it, if it was all supply glut, why would the price be rising?





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Simon_S
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Trollie
5 Mar 2016, 10:22 AM
It's probably because it's under valued. Cut through all the emotional click bait articles and you can see steel output has dropped a mere 3%, but the iron ore price dropped 60%.
It's following the steel futures, as the price for steel rises the traders are following it up because the supposed supply glut is rubbish made up by the above click baiters

Posted Image

Think about it, if it was all supply glut, why would the price be rising?




Because its a Dead Cat Bounce?

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kodiak
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It's going to break the lows again.
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Rufus
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kodiak
5 Mar 2016, 12:50 PM
It's going to break the lows again.
That's not being indicated by the futures -
http://www.barchart.com/futures/commodities/ITI

China is announcing a stimulus package right now, and part of that is increasing the money supply by 13% by allowing easier lending conditions.
That should stimulate housing. That's why iron ore is up and the $AUD is above $0.74USD

Pity help any poor sap who shorted the $AUD.
Oh wait - didn't Simon_S short AUD?
Oh no, what a shame.

Quote:
 
AUD/USD Breakout; July Wicks of Interest Near .7500

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/elliott_wave/aud-usd/2016/03/03/eliottWaves_aud-usd.html
Edited by Rufus, 5 Mar 2016, 01:23 PM.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Terry
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Rufus
5 Mar 2016, 01:16 PM
That's not being indicated by the futures -
http://www.barchart.com/futures/commodities/ITI

China is announcing a stimulus package right now, and part of that is increasing the money supply by 13% by allowing easier lending conditions.
That should stimulate housing. That's why iron ore is up and the $AUD is above $0.74USD

Pity help any poor sap who shorted the $AUD.
Oh wait - didn't Simon_S short AUD?
Oh no, what a shame.



https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/elliott_wave/aud-usd/2016/03/03/eliottWaves_aud-usd.html
Are you some kind of adviser to the Communist party? Isn't that a bit odd that you understand that the Chinese govt's machinations are before they eventuate?

Reality is as follows:

-- The world "hopes" China starts building more ghost cities and the Chinese people take on more household debt. The rest of the word seems pretty tapped out on private debt.

-- Prices of commodities are rallying in general after massive sell offs. It's not a a harbinger of the "next big spend up".

-- AUD is a commodity currency. When it rises against the USD, it is not an indicator of how "special" we are.
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Trollie
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kodiak
5 Mar 2016, 12:50 PM
It's going to break the lows again.
I guess we will see, but nothing is indicating that right now, just as there's no indication of a major housing crash.
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Loki
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Trollie
5 Mar 2016, 02:43 PM
I guess we will see, but nothing is indicating that right now, just as there's no indication of a major housing crash.
If there was an indication of a major housing crash, wouldn't investors rush to get out before the crash, thus precipitating it?


“Talk sense to a fool and he calls you foolish.” - Euripides
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Trollie
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Terry
5 Mar 2016, 02:42 PM
Are you some kind of adviser to the Communist party? Isn't that a bit odd that you understand that the Chinese govt's machinations are before they eventuate?

Reality is as follows:

-- The world "hopes" China starts building more ghost cities and the Chinese people take on more household debt. The rest of the word seems pretty tapped out on private debt.

-- Prices of commodities are rallying in general after massive sell offs. It's not a a harbinger of the "next big spend up".

-- AUD is a commodity currency. When it rises against the USD, it is not an indicator of how "special" we are.
The cafe doesn't have good wifi or something? You need to check the news.
Loki
5 Mar 2016, 02:44 PM
If there was an indication of a major housing crash, wouldn't investors rush to get out before the crash, thus precipitating it?
Rush to the exits is just a bear fantasy.
Edited by Trollie, 5 Mar 2016, 02:46 PM.
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Rufus
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Terry
5 Mar 2016, 02:42 PM
Are you some kind of adviser to the Communist party? Isn't that a bit odd that you understand that the Chinese govt's machinations are before they eventuate?
Why did you say that? Are you just obfuscating for the sake of obfuscating?

Do you listen to or read the news?
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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