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Forecasts of $20/t iron ore. The response? IO now $48/t.; Iron ore recovery offers budget boon hopes
Topic Started: 21 Feb 2016, 07:58 PM (42,871 Views)
Rastus2
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Trollie
25 Feb 2016, 11:15 AM
Incorrect, the price crash he's waiting for is houses, since 2011 atleast. Like yourself.

$51.6 yesterday.

Do keep up.

I have been bullish on property for a while now :re:
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Ex BP Golly
21 Feb 2016, 10:47 PM
Trollie
21 Feb 2016, 07:58 PM
Seems like there's fight left in it yet.
You still flogging this dead horse TIMMY.?
Those who bought into the iron above $150 a ton mantra are so far underwater they may as well just write off the whole investment. It could take decades to come back the way the global economy is heading
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Rufus
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John F. Kennedy
4 Mar 2016, 02:32 PM
I couldn't comment on the effect upon Perth, but for Australia generally, an unexpected mining recovery (now seems to be in the news) will mean much higher interest rates.
We won't see a strong recovery. It's just bottoming that's all. It may drop again but the predictions of $20 do seem to be overreach on the part of those predicting it.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Ex BP Golly
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Rufus
4 Mar 2016, 02:48 PM
We won't see a strong recovery. It's just bottoming that's all. It may drop again but the predictions of $20 do seem to be overreach on the part of those predicting it.
BHP if I remember correctly, was predicting mid $20s.

Maybe a big reach around by them?
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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Trollie
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John F. Kennedy
4 Mar 2016, 02:32 PM
I couldn't comment on the effect upon Perth, but for Australia generally, an unexpected mining recovery (now seems to be in the news) will mean much higher interest rates.
"much" higher? No it won't push rates much higher if at all.

What were rates were bugger all in 2013 when IO was $150/tonne.
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Andrew Judd
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Anybody got any ideas what is driving the iron ore price higher?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-28/iron-ore-rings-in-2016-with-port-stockpiles-at-seven-month-high

Rising stockpiles of ore in China are a precursor to further declines in steel output, Axiom Capital Management Inc. said in a report on Monday that repeated a forecast for ore prices to drop into the $20s. The global surplus may expand to 490 million tons in 2019 from 107 million tons this year, it said.

As policy makers steer Asia’s biggest economy away from investment-led growth, steel demand and production are contracting. Next year, supply will drop to about 783 million tons from 806 million tons in 2015, the China Iron & Steel Association has forecast.
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skamy
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John F. Kennedy
4 Mar 2016, 02:07 PM
Yes, also would mean an interest rate rise.
The banks are raising on their own at the moment :( they think the market can take it.
Ex BP Golly
4 Mar 2016, 03:48 PM
BHP if I remember correctly, was predicting mid $20s.

Maybe a big reach around by them?
BHP were just scaring the competition.
Andrew Judd
4 Mar 2016, 07:09 PM
Anybody got any ideas what is driving the iron ore price higher?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-28/iron-ore-rings-in-2016-with-port-stockpiles-at-seven-month-high

Rising stockpiles of ore in China are a precursor to further declines in steel output, Axiom Capital Management Inc. said in a report on Monday that repeated a forecast for ore prices to drop into the $20s. The global surplus may expand to 490 million tons in 2019 from 107 million tons this year, it said.

As policy makers steer Asia’s biggest economy away from investment-led growth, steel demand and production are contracting. Next year, supply will drop to about 783 million tons from 806 million tons in 2015, the China Iron & Steel Association has forecast.
Anticipation.
Edited by skamy, 4 Mar 2016, 07:15 PM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Andrew Judd
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http://www.shippingherald.com/chinas-iron-ore-imports-surge-to-record-as-prices-hammered/

China’s iron ore imports jumped to a record last month, a sign that overseas miners are winning a greater share of the market in the world’s biggest consumer. Steel exports soared as the nation sells its glut overseas.
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Andrew Judd
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I wonder what impact Brazils woes will have on Vale?

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-economy-gdp-idUSKCN0W51CZ
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newjez
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Andrew Judd
4 Mar 2016, 07:09 PM
Anybody got any ideas what is driving the iron ore price higher?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-28/iron-ore-rings-in-2016-with-port-stockpiles-at-seven-month-high

Rising stockpiles of ore in China are a precursor to further declines in steel output, Axiom Capital Management Inc. said in a report on Monday that repeated a forecast for ore prices to drop into the $20s. The global surplus may expand to 490 million tons in 2019 from 107 million tons this year, it said.

As policy makers steer Asia’s biggest economy away from investment-led growth, steel demand and production are contracting. Next year, supply will drop to about 783 million tons from 806 million tons in 2015, the China Iron & Steel Association has forecast.
I would expect post chinese new year buying.

The only thing holding it up is the need to build containers to hold all the excess oil in.

TBH - after the current steel war ends I expect to see the price fall back down to the low thirties. That's where the futures are. But for now, I'm not unhappy that I bought a whole hunk of resources funds.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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