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Forecasts of $20/t iron ore. The response? IO now $48/t.; Iron ore recovery offers budget boon hopes
Topic Started: 21 Feb 2016, 07:58 PM (42,821 Views)
newjez
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Tiger Lily
3 May 2016, 11:21 AM
iron ore now up to $85 aussie dollars , no wonder ratsarse mad :D

Posted Image
Yes, Australian dollars aren't worth what they were.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Trollie
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Rastus2
3 May 2016, 02:39 PM
lol, it was not meant a verbatim quote you child, more a mockery
So there you go, more lies from Rastus.


Rastus2
3 May 2016, 02:39 PM
You are not willing to accept that prices from 1982 (actually around 1966) till 2013 are all shown on BHP/RBA/Berkley charts of Iron ore price, or that those data points indicate the very price that was being paid for the product.
Nothing but a strawman argument. The validity of a specific chart was never questioned by me.
Edited by Trollie, 7 May 2016, 04:50 PM.
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Rastus2
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Trollie
7 May 2016, 04:47 PM
So there you go, more lies from Rastus.



Nothing but a strawman argument. The validity of a specific chart was never questioned by me.
Aww.. did the joke go over lottle trolls head ? Ask mommy to explain it to you...


So you finally agree the chart is valid, you just refute that the Price of iron ore (as shown on the chart itself) is real in order to claim iron ore has not has a long bear cycle... :D


Despite your shrill cries, the price paid for IO in 1982 is pretty close to the price paid in 1992 and in 2002... that, my little troll, is a long bear market in Iron Ore.

Edited by Rastus2, 7 May 2016, 06:12 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Trollie
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Rastus2
7 May 2016, 05:31 PM
Aww.. did the joke go over lottle trolls head ? Ask mommy to explain it to you...


So you finally agree the chart is valid, you just refute that the Price of iron ore (as shown on the chart itself) is real in order to claim iron ore has not has a long bear cycle... :D


Despite your shrill cries, the price paid for IO in 1982 is pretty close to the price paid in 1992 and in 2002... that, my little troll, is a long bear market in Iron Ore.
What was the price mechanism in 1982 Rastus.

You're just a liar and a sore loser, too quick with the accusations and not smart enough to back up anything he says.
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Rastus2
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Trollie
7 May 2016, 06:23 PM
What was the price mechanism in 1982 Rastus.

You're just a liar and a sore loser, too quick with the accusations and not smart enough to back up anything he says.

Who cares except yourself ?

(The only reason you care is that it is a thin thread of a claim you have that Iron Ore has never suffered a protracted bear market cycle).

The price was what was paid.... Whatever price mechanism existed in 1982, or 1972, if the miners had more IO than the buyers were interested in, the price would not rise... if the miners had less than demand, the price would rise.

Just because a spot price was created post 2010, does not mean the prices before then were not hammered out between buyers and sellers you imbecile... just because daily prices were not available does not mean yearly prices did not exist, or that they could not change with supply/demand changes.



http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/aeaaddf4-e5de-11e5-a09b-1f8b0d268c39.html#ixzz47x9nMqlg

How was iron ore priced before 2010?
Iron ore prices have actually only been set on a daily basis for the past eight years, and are not as transparent as prices for many other industrial commodity markets.
For the 40 years before 2010, the price of iron ore was hammered out between buyers and sellers in smoke-filled rooms, on fixed one-year contracts.
That system started to break down with the rise of China and the rapid growth in the country’s steel demand, as it raced to build apartment complexes, skyscrapers and infrastructure.
Australia and Brazil, China’s traditional iron ore suppliers, struggled to keep up with the voracious appetite, so Chinese steel mills started to secure material from neighbouring India. These deals were done on an ad hoc basis, which led to the creation of the first spot price indices.
Starting in 2008, companies such as The Steel Index started to compile spot prices for traders, producers and consumers. Chinese mills soon realised that some of the year-long contracts they had set with the miners were higher than the spot prices.


Posted Image
Edited by Rastus2, 7 May 2016, 06:36 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Trollie
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Rastus2
7 May 2016, 06:36 PM

(The only reason you care is that it is a thin thread of a claim you have that Iron Ore has never suffered a protracted bear market cycle).
Like gold. And I'm 100% correct, your own chart shows it.
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Rastus2
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Trollie
7 May 2016, 07:11 PM
Like gold. And I'm 100% correct, your own chart shows it.

You pretend to be oblivious to how incorrect you are, but we all know you would not be able to be as stupid as you pretend to be.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Strindberg
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Rastus2
7 May 2016, 06:36 PM


Posted Image
There's no bear market there. Two reasons. One, there was no market in that long flat period. Two, a bear market is not a flat market. Look it up.

Quote:
 
Bear Market Definition | Investopedia
www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bearmarket.asp
A market condition in which the prices of securities are falling,....


Quote:
 
Bear Market Definition & Example | Investing Answers
www.investinganswers.com › Financial Dictionary › Stock Market
A bear market is a period of several months or years during which securities prices consistently fall.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Trollie
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Strindberg
7 May 2016, 08:00 PM
There's no bear market there. Two reasons. One, there was no market in that long flat period. Two, a bear market is not a flat market. Look it up.




It's wasted on him Strindberg, He's too focused on dancing at the end of my strings.

If he stopped furiously slamming that broken tablet screen and used those 2 neurons, he'd see flat lining commodities traded in private annual contracts privately businesses isn't even remotely comparable to gold traded daily on public exchanges.

Let's hope he fails to read this post like the rest of them, and keeps playing by my rule book :lol
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Rastus2
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Strindberg
7 May 2016, 08:00 PM
There's no bear market there. Two reasons. One, there was no market in that long flat period. Two, a bear market is not a flat market. Look it up.




You are incorrect.

One - actually there was.... the market may have not been as open as it is today, however buyers and sellers met, hammered out a price, and, based on the conditions of the time (supply/demand) a price was set.
You might not like the market that existed, you might call it not a free market, but it existed none the less

In fact, despite trollies' claims, a spot market for Iron Ore pellets has existed in America since 1982.

In 1982, major structural changes occurred in the domestic iron ore industry, one of which was the development of a U.S. spot market for pellets. Most spot sales are individually negotiated, one-time contracts made directly between buyer and seller.
http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/iron_ore/340798.pdf

Not that it matters, even before a spot market (which trollie got wrong), a market existed.

From the same webpage :

The spot market led to the beginning of price competition and a winding down of the Lower Lakes pricing system, which had served the iron ore industry for 100 years. Previously, only annual sales, multiyear contracts, or equity ownership transactions existed.


Finally.. lets go back to the 1850's... it seems that a market rate existed for Iron Ore back then :re:


http://www.clevelandmemory.org/glihc/oretrade.html

During the winter of 1850 about 25 double teams were employed in hauling ore to the forge at the mouth of the Carp River, where it was crushed and then made into bloom iron ready for shipment. The ore was hauled exclusively in sleighs during the winter. The attempt to make iron in the peninsula in these little forges proved most disastrous. The tedious hauling of the ore to the lake, the long carriage to the mills in Pennsylvania and Ohio made the cost of the bloom so expensive that it was impossible for the enterprise to recover its costs. By the time the blooms were laid down in Pittsburgh, they had actually cost $200.00 per ton, and the market rate for iron was then $80.00 per ton!


Still don't believe there were markets before 2013 ?

okay, look it up via wiki

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_ore#Iron_ore_market


Over the last 40 years, iron ore prices have been decided in closed-door negotiations between the small handful of miners and steelmakers which dominate both spot and contract markets. ...... which changed to the offering iron ore swaps clearing.


Iron Ore markets have existed well before 2013, or 1982... even more than the 40 years cited here.


Two - Why don't you take a closer look at that chart, the scale is not easy to see due to the final booming 8 years ... it does in fact fall... slowly rise, and then fall again... More importantly, it is not the complete picture of Iron Ore Price, just a chart I found from the 1980's... trollies claim was that IO had not suffered protracted bear markets (like Gold) ... in fact, lets look at a longer period if you don't like the look of that one.

From The Minerals Council of Australia.
http://www.minerals.org.au/file_upload/files/media_releases/Iron_ore__iron_law_FINAL.pdf

Posted Image

There are obvious falls for extended periods.


QED.
Trollie
7 May 2016, 08:11 PM
It's wasted on him Strindberg, He's too focused on dancing at the end of my strings.

If he stopped furiously slamming that broken tablet screen and used those 2 neurons, he'd see flat lining commodities traded in private annual contracts privately businesses isn't even remotely comparable to gold traded daily on public exchanges.

Let's hope he fails to read this post like the rest of them, and keeps playing by my rule book :lol

so now you want to squirm and claim that the Iron Ore Market which has existed for many decades is not the kind of Iron Ore Market you consider when making decisions on it's price because it's not like gold :re:


Classic... that one brain cell of your must be very lonely... tell me again how Iron Ore has never had a protracted bear market... don't forget to look at the nice post I did for strindberg while you grind your troll teeth :D
Edited by Rastus2, 7 May 2016, 09:44 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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