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Forecasts of $20/t iron ore. The response? IO now $48/t.; Iron ore recovery offers budget boon hopes
Topic Started: 21 Feb 2016, 07:58 PM (42,827 Views)
Ex BP Golly
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Rastus2
24 Apr 2016, 10:14 PM
Posted Image
It's amazing what happens when you let morons speculate on anything.

All those years it had a fair value, then it goes all tulip shaped!

Just like Australian house values :lol
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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Rastus2
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Trollie
25 Apr 2016, 12:23 PM
Poontang
20 Apr 2016, 07:28 PM
Not being a smart ass.. The question is genuine and sincere. Why do you think Gold can not do the same?


Trollie - Gold has long bear cycles. It could surprise us, I just think it's more of a long shot.

Rastus2
20 Apr 2016, 11:17 PM

Tell me, noticed anything about IO and it's chart ? Anh long bear cycles you happened to observe.

Trollie - Iron ore hasn't been a spot market long enough to make that call.


Rastus, you clearly need the blindly obvious spelled out to you like some kind of special needs kid. Iron ore Has been a spot market for just over 10 years. Gold has 20 year bear markets. You can't claim iron ore is going to have long term bear markets like gold because it hasn't even been a floating price for the length of time gold had it's last bear market.

It's clear the problem isn't just with your spelling ability, it's also with your reading and comprehension as well. Instead of running off like the ADD kid, next time take 5 minutes to read a post and avoid this kind of embarrassment in the future.

I posted the same details of the thread for you to mull over pages back, and you bleated over and over how correct you were, while continuing to be so very wrong :D



Your claim that iron ore could not possibly have ever had a long bear market because the price has only ever been recorded for 10 years is a joke.

What makes you think that an iron ore spot price from 2003 means that any price recorded for ore prior to that magically should be ignored ?

As another poster implied, how old are you ?


A little history lesson for the troll.

As it turns out, iron ore has been for sale, in one form or another for a very long time before 2003.

The Manufacturers' Encouragement Act 1908 set the bounties payable on Australian Pig Iron, Bar Iron and steel.
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/featurearticlesbytitle/523C5171921128AECA2569DE00271B20?OpenDocument


Wiki:
Over the last 40 years, iron ore prices have been decided in closed-door negotiations between the small handful of miners and steelmakers which dominate both spot and contract markets. Traditionally, the first deal reached between these two groups sets a benchmark to be followed by the rest of the industry.

In recent years, however, this benchmark system has begun to break down, with participants along both demand and supply chains calling for a shift to short term pricing.

-------------------

So, in other words, the spot price of iron ore for the previous 40 years was previously dictated by a small number of people, but still, remains the recorded historic price for that commodity.


Don't believe me, go and do some research.

A nice chart of IO price since 1982 (that's 44 years btw)

Posted Image


Don't like that chart ?

Lets pull one from MUNDI.. shall we say 30 years ?

http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=iron-ore&months=360

How about in AUD ?

http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=iron-ore&months=360&currency=aud


Notice that looooooong bit of 20 years ? That, my little troll, is what is called a protracted bear market.

So, tell me again how it's impossible that IO could have ever had a long bear market ?
Edited by Rastus2, 25 Apr 2016, 02:06 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Trollie
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Rastus2
25 Apr 2016, 02:04 PM

So, tell me again how it's impossible that IO could have ever had a long bear market ?
So after explaining it twice, you need it explained again?

I'm right, you're wrong. Job done.
Ex BP Golly
25 Apr 2016, 01:39 PM

Just like Australian house values :lol
Unfortunately for you, house prices have soared.
Edited by Trollie, 25 Apr 2016, 02:16 PM.
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Rastus2
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Trollie
25 Apr 2016, 02:15 PM
So after explaining it twice, you need it explained again?

I'm right, you're wrong. Job done.

Unfortunately for you, house prices have soared.
When your explanation consists of 'i refuse to see the 40 years of data on a chart' then yes, you will have to explain it endlessly because it is the response of a child.

Despite your cries, the price of iron ore has been agreed upon prior to 2003.

What do you think was used to pay for iron ore prior to 2003 you fool ? Popcorn ?
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Trollie
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Rastus2
25 Apr 2016, 02:26 PM
When your explanation consists of 'i refuse to see the 40 years of data on a chart' then yes, you will have to explain it endlessly because it is the response of a child.

Despite your cries, the price of iron ore has been agreed upon prior to 2003.

What do you think was used to pay for iron ore prior to 2003 you fool ? Popcorn ?
I've already pointed out 30 years of those weren't a market at all. That's 3 times now i've had to correct you.

Getting back to the topic Rastus is desperate to derail, IO has eased to $66, a long long way from the $20 range predicted. GS will have a hard time holding on to the $35/t average predicted for 2016.
Edited by Trollie, 25 Apr 2016, 03:07 PM.
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Rastus2
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Trollie
25 Apr 2016, 03:04 PM
I've already pointed out 30 years of those weren't a market at all. That's 3 times now i've had to correct you.


The price has existed prior to 2003, the method for determining that price is all that changed.

If the demand far exceeded supply in 1989, the price would have gone up despite the method being used to set price.. instead, there were decades of static prices.

That, was a bear market you buffoon.


If you want to learn instead of lecture, try reading this

It describes the spot market that was estanlished in the 1980's and the bear market that followed.


Just because you wish it was not so, does not make it true.

Why do you think BHP, Indexmundi, RBA and Berkley, as well as anyone else with a brain includes those pre 2003 prices in their data ?

http://www.minerals.org.au/file_upload/files/publications/Iron_ore_the_big_picture_PJP_FINAL.pdf

For fun ? :re:


BHP http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=iron-ore&months=360

RBA http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2011/pdf/rdp2011-08.pdf
The pick-up in commodity prices over recent years followed a period from the late 1980s to the early 2000s when real prices were unusually low by historical standards. Compared with the average price level in the United States, commodity prices fell noticeably from their peak in 1981, to be well below historical averages in the late 1990s;


Berkley - https://www.econ.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/Thesis%20Paper_Lingxiao%20Ou.pdf

Edited by Rastus2, 25 Apr 2016, 05:26 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Trollie
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Rastus2
25 Apr 2016, 04:45 PM

The price has existed prior to 2003, the method for determining that price is all that changed.

If the demand far exceeded supply in 1989, the price would have gone up despite the method being used to set price.. instead, there were decades of static prices.

That, was a bear market you buffoon.


If you want to learn instead of lecture, try reading this

It describes the spot market that was estanlished in the 1980's and the bear market that followed.


Just because you wish it was not so, does not make it true.

Why do you think BHP, Indexmundi, RBA and Berkley, as well as anyone else with a brain includes those pre 2003 prices in their data ?

http://www.minerals.org.au/file_upload/files/publications/Iron_ore_the_big_picture_PJP_FINAL.pdf

For fun ? :re:


BHP http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=iron-ore&months=360

RBA http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2011/pdf/rdp2011-08.pdf
The pick-up in commodity prices over recent years followed a period from the late 1980s to the early 2000s when real prices were unusually low by historical standards. Compared with the average price level in the United States, commodity prices fell noticeably from their peak in 1981, to be well below historical averages in the late 1990s;


Berkley - https://www.econ.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/Thesis%20Paper_Lingxiao%20Ou.pdf
The vast majority of iron ore was not part of any market based pricing you ignoramus.
You even acknowledge this when you point out the contract pricing resulted in a huge supply deficit.

Again, you are very clearly wrong on the topic.
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Rastus2
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Trollie
25 Apr 2016, 05:47 PM
The vast majority of iron ore was not part of any market based pricing you ignoramus.
You even acknowledge this when you point out the contract pricing resulted in a huge supply deficit.

Again, you are very clearly wrong on the topic.

lol, If I am wrong, then are all the others who use the Iron Ore price charts going back to the 80's

BHP,
RBA,
Berkley,
IndexMundi
and
Rio TInto.


Truth is, you are wrong in your claim, but too brain damaged to accept it... in the same way you claim not to understand your poor anal sex joke.
Edited by Rastus2, 25 Apr 2016, 05:56 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Trollie
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Rastus2
25 Apr 2016, 05:55 PM

lol, If I am wrong, then are all the others who use the Iron Ore price charts going back to the 80's

BHP,
RBA,
Berkley,
IndexMundi
and
Rio TInto.


Truth is, you are wrong in your claim, but too brain damaged to accept it... in the same way you claim not to understand your poor anal sex joke.
You're just making an appeal to authority, it's laughable that you think anyone is taken in by it.

Getting back on track (which Rastus is desperate to stop).

Credit Suisse are saying the steel bull market is only just starting.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/credit-suisse-prediction-on-chinas-steel-demand-to-bolster-iron-ore-bulls-20160425-goe4uy.html\

"a major restocking event which could last over four quarters, delivering a very strong 2017."
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Rastus2
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Trollie
25 Apr 2016, 07:58 PM
You're just making an appeal to authority, it's laughable that you think anyone is taken in by it.

Getting back on track (which Rastus is desperate to stop).

Credit Suisse are saying the steel bull market is only just starting.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/credit-suisse-prediction-on-chinas-steel-demand-to-bolster-iron-ore-bulls-20160425-goe4uy.html\

"a major restocking event which could last over four quarters, delivering a very strong 2017."
Oh, this is your comeback ?

So now you claim BHP, RBA, Rio Tinto, indexmundi and Berkley are less of an authority than yourself on the subject.


Classic ... do you do bookings for parties or stick to the clown show on forums alone ?,
Edited by Rastus2, 25 Apr 2016, 09:34 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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