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Forecasts of $20/t iron ore. The response? IO now $48/t.; Iron ore recovery offers budget boon hopes
Topic Started: 21 Feb 2016, 07:58 PM (42,834 Views)
newjez
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createdby
21 Apr 2016, 10:31 PM
IDIOT WE'VE DISCUSSED THIS BEFORE. THEY'RE RAMPING UP STEEL PRODUCTION BEFORE THEY CUT IT DOWN FOR THE TANGSHAN INTERNATIONA HORTICULTURAL EXPOSITION, running from 29 April to 16 October.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aiLEGhPlJIs




Once that is over, they'll return to normal pace of pollution, I mean production for these slaves.


Posted Image

Can I haz a $35 per tonne iron ore I mean oxygen tank?

Posted Image





FROM McGRAW HILL FINANCIAL
http://www.platts.com/latest-news/metals/singapore/tangshan-steelmakers-to-cut-emissions-by-at-least-27383567

Tangshan steelmakers to cut emissions by at least 50% during horticultural exposition
Singapore (Platts)--22 Mar 2016 551 am EDT/951 GMT

Steel mills in Tangshan will need to cut emissions by at least 50% when the major Chinese steelmaking hub plays host to key events held during the Tangshan International Horticultural Exposition, according to a government notice.

The strictest measures will take effect during six major events that total 33 days
, including regional political and business summits, a trade fair and a film award ceremony, a notice dated March 15 by the Tangshan municipal government said.

Photos of the document were found on a number of Chinese news websites since Friday, but it could not be located on the government's website.

When reached by phone, the municipal government's general office directed queries to its environment protection bureau, which confirmed the document.

A source at a major Tangshan steelmaker contacted by Platts confirmed the document was disseminated to them during a meeting called by the local iron and steel association. Over the weekend, spot prices of square billet in Tangshan rose Yuan 20/mt ($3/mt) to Yuan 1,930/mt ex-works including 17% value added tax. It rose a further Yuan 10/mt in Monday trading.

Details of the anti-pollution measures have been keenly awaited by the market, with speculation over its impact having contributed to volatility in steel and iron ore prices over the past two weeks.

Some, however, have played down its impact, saying only smaller companies that are less well-equipped to deal with emissions would be affected.

The exposition takes place from April 29-October 16, and is seeking to draw attendance of over 10 million.

Measures will be implemented according to two groups that divide companies by their location, although iron and steelmaking companies in both classifications are to observe emission cuts by at least 50% during the six major events.

The identified 361 Zone One companies are located in the districts Lunan, Lubei, Kaiping, Guye, Fengrun and Fengnan, and the Hi-Tech Industrial Development Zone. Major mills shortlisted include Tangshan Iron & Steel and Tangshan Guofeng Iron & Steel.

Zone Two enterprises are those located in the remaining areas of Tangshan.

Those in the iron and steel, coking, cement, glass and other industries that emit volatile organic compounds are also to observe emission cuts by at least 50%, while companies in less heavily emitting industries are to reduce emissions by at least 30%.

During the six major events, Zone One companies are to implement measures one level higher than the city's existing pollution alert classification, while Zone Two companies are to adhere to measures appropriate to current pollution levels.

Hebei Jinxi Iron & Steel and Jiujiang Wire Rod are classified under Zone Two.

Monitoring and implementation of the measures will be undertaken by at least 14 government agencies, including the city's development and reform commission, environmental protection bureau and transport department.

Activities including building construction and demolition, mining, transportation and stockpiling of bulk materials will also be controlled, as will the movement of traffic.

--Keith Tan, keith.tan@platts.com, with analysis by Zhang Jing and Sharon Liao
--Edited by Irene Tang, irene.tang@platts.com
Eight days away. Let's hope the wind blows.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Trollie
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Rastus2
21 Apr 2016, 11:48 PM
Right...... keep digging that hole :D


So you are now claiming that a bear market on iron ore has never happened because, until very recently, Iron Ore has not been freely traded ?

Did you wish to inform BHP who have been freely selling the stuff for decades ?


http://www.bhpbilliton.com/investors/reports/iron-ore-fundamentals

Like all free markets, supply and demand determine price. As the debate around iron ore has intensified, it is appropriate to reflect on the facts behind this important Australian industry.

Between 1980 and 2005, the price of iron ore leaving Port Hedland (in 2015 dollar terms, what we call ‘real Free on board Pilbara’) averaged US$30 per dry metric tonne (dmt). For the 10-year period from 2005 to 2015, the price of iron ore averaged US$96 per dmt. And driven by the Chinese industrialisation, we even saw once-in-a-generation prices that peaked at more than US$180 per dmt.

1980 to 2005 is a long time at $30 (2015 dollars) were they selling it to aliens on some kind of "unfree" market ?

Why don't you tell the class how long you consider iron ore to have been freely traded, and why ?

Here is another chart for for you to pour over... notice any long, flat bits yet ?

Posted Image


Btw, haste has an e on the end numb nuts... did your wrists cramp up masterbating over the 4 month IO chart ?
If you want me to bother checking my post for errors, how about you use a brain to construct your posts, and check your own spelling :)
Go back and read what I said, you've got it wrong yet again.
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Rastus2
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Trollie
22 Apr 2016, 12:57 AM
Go back and read what I said, you've got it wrong yet again.

Bullshit, you are squirming yet again... unlike yourself, I watched the hole being dug, you were the one digging it :D


Here is how we got to this point...


Poontang asked why you considered gold could not to rise to new highs as some shares did.

You posted

Gold has long bear cycles. It could surprise us, I just think it's more of a long shot.

I pointed out iron ore, like gold has had a long bear cycle...


You then claimed.


Iron ore hasn't been a spot market long enough to make that call.



I posted, the price of iron ore, as shown on a chart, clearly had a bear market..


You then claimed

How does a bear "market" happen in a commodity which isn't freely traded?




Why don't you stop squirming and explain just what you mean when you claim iron ore has not had a bear cycle.... all i see is denial from you.

Gold and iron ore have been traded throuh periods of both bull and bear markets... you are an idiot if you are not aware of this basic fact.
Rufus
21 Apr 2016, 08:43 AM
I can't predict the future, but I do know that the futures for the next two and a half years are well up at the moment.
http://www.barchart.com/futures/commodities/ITI

The Kouk is talking about $80USD/Tonne
https://twitter.com/TheKouk/status/722906334086082561

Also according to David Scutt of Business Insider the Sept futures for coking coal are up 55.5%
https://twitter.com/David_Scutt/status/722746255814709249


PS - you really do need to change the settings on your phone to auto correct.

If the futures market was always right, money would be pretty easy to make... they are a reflection of perceptions today for the future... watch them move around.

There are many analyists predicting higher IO prices... they may be right.. many of them predicted recovery of prices all the way down also so take their predictions with a grain of salt.


Btw... it is a tablet, not a phone, and auto correct does not fix touch screen problems... thanks anyway.
Edited by Rastus2, 22 Apr 2016, 01:27 AM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Rufus
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Rastus2
22 Apr 2016, 01:21 AM

If the futures market was always right, money would be pretty easy to make... they are a reflection of perceptions today for the future... watch them move around.

There are many analyists predicting higher IO prices... they may be right.. many of them predicted recovery of prices all the way down also so take their predictions with a grain of salt.


Btw... it is a tablet, not a phone, and auto correct does not fix touch screen problems... thanks anyway.
Had you looked you would have noticed that the futures market isn't predicting future prices around $70 but they are up. Here is the link again -
http://www.barchart.com/futures/commodities/ITI
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Sydneyite
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Rufus
22 Apr 2016, 08:35 AM
Had you looked you would have noticed that the futures market isn't predicting future prices around $70 but they are up. Here is the link again -
http://www.barchart.com/futures/commodities/ITI
Actually as a general rule futures do not attempt to, and are not used to "predict" the price of a commodity at a future date. They are used to "lock in" today's price at a future date. So going long or short on a particular expiry is either a reflection of your desire to lock in today's price, or a speculative play where you think the price will move in some direction over that timeframe. Thus the longer dated futures generally reflect spot price plus cost of carry - with maybe a little bending of the curve based on the weight of speculation one way or the other - but price can't move too far away from the spot + carry fundamentals, or else liquidity (ie people to take the other side of your trade) will dry up.
Edited by Sydneyite, 22 Apr 2016, 11:48 AM.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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Trollie
Member Avatar


Rastus2
22 Apr 2016, 01:21 AM

Bullshit, you are squirming yet again... unlike yourself, I watched the hole being dug, you were the one digging it :D


Here is how we got to this point...


Poontang asked why you considered gold could not to rise to new highs as some shares did.

You posted

Gold has long bear cycles. It could surprise us, I just think it's more of a long shot.

I pointed out iron ore, like gold has had a long bear cycle...


You then claimed.


Iron ore hasn't been a spot market long enough to make that call.



I posted, the price of iron ore, as shown on a chart, clearly had a bear market..


You then claimed

How does a bear "market" happen in a commodity which isn't freely traded?




Why don't you stop squirming and explain just what you mean when you claim iron ore has not had a bear cycle.... all i see is denial from you.

Gold and iron ore have been traded throuh periods of both bull and bear markets... you are an idiot if you are not aware of this basic fact.


If the futures market was always right, money would be pretty easy to make... they are a reflection of perceptions today for the future... watch them move around.

There are many analyists predicting higher IO prices... they may be right.. many of them predicted recovery of prices all the way down also so take their predictions with a grain of salt.


Btw... it is a tablet, not a phone, and auto correct does not fix touch screen problems... thanks anyway.
No, wrong again. You aren't capable of comhrending other peoples posts are you.
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Rastus2
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Trollie
22 Apr 2016, 10:42 AM
No, wrong again. You aren't capable of comhrending other peoples posts are you.

au contraire


Why don't you explain what you meant by your posts, reading them, you are all over the shop.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Matthew
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createdby
21 Apr 2016, 10:31 PM
IDIOT WE'VE DISCUSSED THIS BEFORE. THEY'RE RAMPING UP STEEL PRODUCTION BEFORE THEY CUT IT DOWN FOR THE TANGSHAN INTERNATIONA HORTICULTURAL EXPOSITION, running from 29 April to 16 October.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aiLEGhPlJIs




Once that is over, they'll return to normal pace of pollution, I mean production for these slaves.


Posted Image

Can I haz a $35 per tonne iron ore I mean oxygen tank?

Posted Image





FROM McGRAW HILL FINANCIAL
http://www.platts.com/latest-news/metals/singapore/tangshan-steelmakers-to-cut-emissions-by-at-least-27383567

Tangshan steelmakers to cut emissions by at least 50% during horticultural exposition
Singapore (Platts)--22 Mar 2016 551 am EDT/951 GMT

Steel mills in Tangshan will need to cut emissions by at least 50% when the major Chinese steelmaking hub plays host to key events held during the Tangshan International Horticultural Exposition, according to a government notice.

The strictest measures will take effect during six major events that total 33 days
, including regional political and business summits, a trade fair and a film award ceremony, a notice dated March 15 by the Tangshan municipal government said.

Photos of the document were found on a number of Chinese news websites since Friday, but it could not be located on the government's website.

When reached by phone, the municipal government's general office directed queries to its environment protection bureau, which confirmed the document.

A source at a major Tangshan steelmaker contacted by Platts confirmed the document was disseminated to them during a meeting called by the local iron and steel association. Over the weekend, spot prices of square billet in Tangshan rose Yuan 20/mt ($3/mt) to Yuan 1,930/mt ex-works including 17% value added tax. It rose a further Yuan 10/mt in Monday trading.

Details of the anti-pollution measures have been keenly awaited by the market, with speculation over its impact having contributed to volatility in steel and iron ore prices over the past two weeks.

Some, however, have played down its impact, saying only smaller companies that are less well-equipped to deal with emissions would be affected.

The exposition takes place from April 29-October 16, and is seeking to draw attendance of over 10 million.

Measures will be implemented according to two groups that divide companies by their location, although iron and steelmaking companies in both classifications are to observe emission cuts by at least 50% during the six major events.

The identified 361 Zone One companies are located in the districts Lunan, Lubei, Kaiping, Guye, Fengrun and Fengnan, and the Hi-Tech Industrial Development Zone. Major mills shortlisted include Tangshan Iron & Steel and Tangshan Guofeng Iron & Steel.

Zone Two enterprises are those located in the remaining areas of Tangshan.

Those in the iron and steel, coking, cement, glass and other industries that emit volatile organic compounds are also to observe emission cuts by at least 50%, while companies in less heavily emitting industries are to reduce emissions by at least 30%.

During the six major events, Zone One companies are to implement measures one level higher than the city's existing pollution alert classification, while Zone Two companies are to adhere to measures appropriate to current pollution levels.

Hebei Jinxi Iron & Steel and Jiujiang Wire Rod are classified under Zone Two.

Monitoring and implementation of the measures will be undertaken by at least 14 government agencies, including the city's development and reform commission, environmental protection bureau and transport department.

Activities including building construction and demolition, mining, transportation and stockpiling of bulk materials will also be controlled, as will the movement of traffic.

--Keith Tan, keith.tan@platts.com, with analysis by Zhang Jing and Sharon Liao
--Edited by Irene Tang, irene.tang@platts.com
Typing misguided racist comments in big bold letters does not prove a point nor make you appear intelligent.

Just saying.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Rastus2
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Sydneyite
22 Apr 2016, 09:49 AM
Actually as a general rule futures do not attempt to, and are not used to "predict" the price of a commodity at a future date. They are used to "lock in" today's price at a future date. So going long or short on a particular expiry is either a reflection of your desire to lock in today's price, or a speculative play where you think the price will move in some direction over that timeframe. Thus the longer dated futures generally reflect spot price plus cost of carry - with maybe a little bending of the curve based on the weight of speculation one way or the other - but price can't move too far away from the spot + carry fundamentals, or else liquidity (ie people to take the other side of your trade) will dry up.
yes, I see my error... there is no way that what you posted could possibly be confused with predicting the future price...



"a speculative play where you think the price will move in some direction over that timeframe "
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Trollie
Member Avatar


Rastus2
22 Apr 2016, 12:07 PM

au contraire


Why don't you explain what you meant by your posts, reading them, you are all over the shop.
Just how much do I need to dumb it down for you. You let me know ok.
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