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Forecasts of $20/t iron ore. The response? IO now $48/t.; Iron ore recovery offers budget boon hopes
Topic Started: 21 Feb 2016, 07:58 PM (42,854 Views)
Rastus2
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Rufus
7 Mar 2016, 11:07 PM
It has refused to fall to $20 though, wouldn't you agree?

This doesn't help us one bit on the East coast, but it's great for WA.

It has also refused to fall to $10... that does not make this any more impressive than a dead cat bounce on any other asset price.

Personally, I am quite happy to see IO or any Australian revenue stream increase... pragmatically, it does not mean we have anything other than a boom/bust cycle that went a little low on the down side as it usually does.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Rufus
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Terry
8 Mar 2016, 11:26 AM
The world is rejoicing about the iron ore price and FMG drops 8%. Pretty dramatic, even after y'day's fireworks.

Just goes to show, despite what the media says, the suburbanites are fumbling around in the dark and trying to appear in control of their decisions, where in fact many of them are little more than puppets without any speaking parts.
You don't bother to provide a link?

Can you analyse that fall?

Lets put it in perspective - on 12th February the FMG price was $1.62 and it leapt to almost double at $3.08 yesterday and now it's settled back a little to be currently trading at $2.85

Here are your data points - https://www.google.com.au/#q=asx+fmg

Now based on your extensive knowledge of statistical analysis - what will the price close at tomorrow?

Tell us all..... show us suburbanites just how an expert does this.
Edited by Rufus, 8 Mar 2016, 02:28 PM.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Trollie
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Like I've said here before, the io prices are following the steel price.



It's not some phantom rally in IO, it's driven by a fundamental increase in steel demand.
Edited by Trollie, 8 Mar 2016, 11:39 PM.
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Veritas
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Trollie
8 Mar 2016, 11:38 PM
Like I've said here before, the io prices are following the steel price.



It's not some phantom rally in IO, it's driven by a fundamental increase in steel demand.
Good boy

Quote:
 
Steel output in the world's largest producer posted the first annual contraction in a quarter century.

Mills in China, which make half of global supply, churned out less last year for the first time since at least 1991 as local demand dropped, prices sank and producers struggled with overcapacity. Crude steel production shrank 2.3 per cent to 803.83 million metric tons, the statistics bureau said Tuesday. December output fell 5.2 per cent to 64.37 million tons from a year earlier.



Read more: http://www.afr.com/business/mining/iron-ore/china-confirms-steel-industry-in-decline-20160119-gm9hkb#ixzz42K9FG83e
Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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newjez
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Strindberg
8 Mar 2016, 11:03 AM
sort of like "what the Romans ever done for us?....apart from....."....really funny....you reckon the iron ore price is not important now it's booming.....but you reckoned it was important when it was falling and justified selling up! You need to take a look at yourself.

http://australianpropertyforum.com/single/?p=8546765&t=10289858


Pot and kettle.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Rufus
8 Mar 2016, 02:27 PM
You don't bother to provide a link?

Can you analyse that fall?

Lets put it in perspective - on 12th February the FMG price was $1.62 and it leapt to almost double at $3.08 yesterday and now it's settled back a little to be currently trading at $2.85

Here are your data points - https://www.google.com.au/#q=asx+fmg

Now based on your extensive knowledge of statistical analysis - what will the price close at tomorrow?

Tell us all..... show us suburbanites just how an expert does this.
Lets put it in proper perspective then. Fmg was $12.13 in june 2008. Eight years ago.......

You seemed to leave that perspective out.



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Trollie
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Veritas
9 Mar 2016, 02:02 AM
Some doomer shit

You are easily the most one eye'd muppet on here.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-08/iron-ore-rally-consolidates-holds-record-gains/7231482

Looks like the chinese know their demand for steel is going to increase again.
Edited by Trollie, 9 Mar 2016, 10:03 AM.
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Terry
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Rufus
8 Mar 2016, 02:27 PM
You don't bother to provide a link?

Can you analyse that fall?

Lets put it in perspective - on 12th February the FMG price was $1.62 and it leapt to almost double at $3.08 yesterday and now it's settled back a little to be currently trading at $2.85

Here are your data points - https://www.google.com.au/#q=asx+fmg

Now based on your extensive knowledge of statistical analysis - what will the price close at tomorrow?

Tell us all..... show us suburbanites just how an expert does this.
Probability and magnitude of the movements of FMG would seem to live in a world of schizophrenia. If you take all the daily data points and band the magnitude of rises and falls, you at least get some idea of probability.
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Trollie
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Terry
9 Mar 2016, 10:47 AM
Probability and magnitude of the movements of FMG would seem to live in a world of schizophrenia. If you take all the daily data points and band the magnitude of rises and falls, you at least get some idea of probability.
Is that your idea of an expert analysis. Pathetic, drunks down at the local can do better.
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Terry
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Trollie
9 Mar 2016, 12:28 PM
Is that your idea of an expert analysis. Pathetic, drunks down at the local can do better.
Considering it's the basis of COV, it's best that the puppet master keeps working on its scripts.
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