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Forecasts of $20/t iron ore. The response? IO now $48/t.; Iron ore recovery offers budget boon hopes
Topic Started: 21 Feb 2016, 07:58 PM (42,856 Views)
skamy
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Mike
7 Mar 2016, 06:04 PM
Actually the Government get more corporate taxes, state government gets more royaly payments. Due to the Australian dollar being down some 30-40% off its peak when prices were well over $100 a ton means more dollars flowing into this nation and government coffers then you may think. 40% increase in Iron Ore prices combined with a 30-40% fall in the Aussie dollar equals alot more tax and royalty income.

Plus if you were looking at the longer term and recently purchased mining stocks you will reap those dividends. I said a few months back I was moving into buy mining stocks and I continue to do so while they are so cheap as it will not last forever.
I bought resources and banks a few weeks ago. All the low value mines etc are now priced in at rock bottom - it is hard to see how it cannot improve from here.
Rufus
7 Mar 2016, 08:00 PM
Huge jump to $62 USD which is close to $90 AUD.

Massive lift.
Have you got a link Peter?
Edited by skamy, 7 Mar 2016, 08:14 PM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Andrew Judd
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Rufus
7 Mar 2016, 08:00 PM
Huge jump to $62 USD which is close to $90 AUD.

Massive lift.
That does not seem to make any sense but what the heck!

Not much optimism here:

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/iron-ore-rally-wont-last-hsbc-tips-us39-by-2017-20160306-gnc6hn.html
Edited by Andrew Judd, 7 Mar 2016, 08:28 PM.
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Rufus
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skamy
7 Mar 2016, 08:13 PM

Have you got a link Peter?
Lol - an earlier article from zerohedge was all that I could find. Price was then $58.95 USD on a tear.
Link
Quote:
 
Shorts Pulverized As Iron Ore Soars 19% After Goldman Says "Bearish Case Intact"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/07/2016 03:12 -0500

Goldman does it again.

Just hours after the central banker-spawning investment bank issued a report in which it said the iron ore rally is likely to be short lived "in the absence of a material increase in Chinese steel demand, and steel raw materials will once again drive steel prices rather than the other way around", overnight Iron Ore futures traded on the Singapore SGX exploded as much as 19% higher to $58.95 in one session.


Pretty sure I've seen a later tweet quoting $62.

Oil is also rocketing upward.

Edited by Rufus, 7 Mar 2016, 09:13 PM.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Andrew Judd
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Rufus
7 Mar 2016, 09:10 PM
Lol - an earlier article from zerohedge was all that I could find. Price was then $58.95 USD on a tear.
Link



Pretty sure I've seen a later tweet quoting $62.

Oil is also rocketing upward.
Same ZH article is talking about dalian futures at 62.

bloomberg are also giving the same number

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-07/iron-ore-steel-soar-in-asia-as-china-pledges-to-support-growth

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Rufus
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Andrew Judd
7 Mar 2016, 09:27 PM
Same ZH article is talking about dalian futures at 62.

bloomberg are also giving the same number

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-07/iron-ore-steel-soar-in-asia-as-china-pledges-to-support-growth

Ah well that can't be right. Terry told me yesterday that China isn't doing that.
And Terry is all knowing, he can't ever be wrong.

Here is the chart. Stunning rise.
Now $64

Posted Image
Attached to this post:
Attachments: iron_ore.png (142.17 KB)
Edited by Rufus, 7 Mar 2016, 10:04 PM.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Andrew Judd
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Rufus
7 Mar 2016, 09:50 PM
Ah well that can't be right. Terry told me yesterday that China isn't doing that.
And Terry is all knowing, he can't ever be wrong.

Here is the chart. Stunning rise.
Now $64

Posted Image
What China appears to be saying is that it will carry on doing what it has been doing, which is increasing debt and will not stop that, while also saying it will step up efforts to sort out the state sector.

China last year had a target of 12% money supply growth and managed they say 12.5% and this year they are going for 13%.

On the other hand if the market thought china was going to very seriously tackle the imbalances and go austrian they would be dissapointed, because while China agrees they are in a mess the official policy is to carry on as before.
Edited by Andrew Judd, 7 Mar 2016, 10:24 PM.
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Rastus2
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Rufus
7 Mar 2016, 09:50 PM
Ah well that can't be right. Terry told me yesterday that China isn't doing that.
And Terry is all knowing, he can't ever be wrong.

Here is the chart. Stunning rise.
Now $64

Posted Image


Indeed.

Perhaps some context is required.

We are now almost back to where we were in august of last year.

However...
60 months paints a less impressive picture...


http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=iron-ore&months=60
Edited by Rastus2, 7 Mar 2016, 11:00 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Rufus
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Rastus2
7 Mar 2016, 11:00 PM


Indeed.

Perhaps some context is required.

We are now almost back to where we were in august of last year.

However...
60 months paints a less impressive picture...


http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=iron-ore&months=60
It has refused to fall to $20 though, wouldn't you agree?

This doesn't help us one bit on the East coast, but it's great for WA.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Veritas
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Rufus
7 Mar 2016, 11:07 PM
It has refused to fall to $20 though, wouldn't you agree?

This doesn't help us one bit on the East coast, but it's great for WA.
How is it great for WA apart form royalties?
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Terry
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Largest ever 1-day increase in iron ore price in history. The suburbs will brimming with joy in Perth and corks popping in celebration.
Rufus
7 Mar 2016, 11:07 PM
It has refused to fall to $20 though, wouldn't you agree?

This doesn't help us one bit on the East coast, but it's great for WA.
Why? Does Australia as a nation not benefit from higher iron ore prices?
Veritas
7 Mar 2016, 11:40 PM
How is it great for WA apart form royalties?
Higher salaries?
Edited by Terry, 7 Mar 2016, 11:53 PM.
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