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Forecasts of $20/t iron ore. The response? IO now $48/t.; Iron ore recovery offers budget boon hopes
Topic Started: 21 Feb 2016, 07:58 PM (42,863 Views)
Terry
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Rufus
5 Mar 2016, 11:40 PM
I never used the term "fiscal"

You added that because that's what you thought I said.

But they have allowed lending to increase, which is stimulative.

Are you finished yet or are you going to argue your strawman forever?
The Chinese govt is using monetary policy to maintain liquidity and implementing fiscal stimulus in line with their growth targets. It doesn't mean they're prime pumping so people can speculate on houses. Nor does it mean the iron ore price will continue to increases.
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skamy
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Andrew Judd
5 Mar 2016, 09:22 PM
Subprime loans are written to give poorer people and people with credit imperfections a chance to own a home.

I cant believe you would dispute that. You know that banks have increased restrictions for the mining towns. You know about 120% finance in the Uk and 95% in Australia.

No way are you going to tell me these practices would be normal/commonplace/typical in a market that was not strongly rising
And that Andrew is where you concede us the point - the demand must be there first- without the demand no amount of loose credit can push up prices,
Jimbo
5 Mar 2016, 09:48 PM
If two people want the same house and one can access 600k and the other 700k, the house will sell for north of 600k to the person with access to 700k.

If a third person joins the battle with access to 800k, the house will sell for north of 700k.

And so on.

Do you not agree?


So there you have it three people need to want the same house. If there were not three people bidding for one house the banks can lend as much as they want and it wont make a skerrick of difference to the price.

Are you guys being deliberately stubborn not conceding this point.
Edited by skamy, 6 Mar 2016, 12:44 AM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Jimbo
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skamy
6 Mar 2016, 12:42 AM
And that Andrew is where you concede us the point - the demand must be there first- without the demand no amount of loose credit can push up prices.
I demand that I am surrounded by naked supermodels all day long as I wander around my Bondi supermansion.

But my demand means nothing if I can't fulfill it with money (or access to borrowing).

Price = (Supply/Demand)*Ability to pay.

Concede.

FFS concede.



Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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skamy
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Andrew Judd
5 Mar 2016, 10:07 PM
The banks seems quite happy to lend on 'stupid' prices if they have 'stupid' ideas on the likely employment prospects of the areas in question.
I think you have a strange idea of what constitutes a stupid price. In Sydney people set the prices of houses - the banks will not try to lend more than they can see a person repaying them.

So first you need the wealth - then you need the income - then after all that the market will put a value to the house. There is serious wealth in a lot of our big cities and that is why house prices rise. The best house goes to the richest person the second best to the second richest and so on down the track. Rich cities have rich prices - poor cities not so much.

It has precious little to do with bank lending.

I am not claiming that irresponsible lending is not dangerous, it is, but it is not the cause of over inflation - it can just make the correction more painful for all involved in the silliness.
Jimbo
5 Mar 2016, 10:12 PM
It does (according to you).

But here is a sum you can't argue with.

Price = (Supply/Demand)*Access to funds

I would like to live in a 10 million dollar mansion in Peppermint Grove.

I am the demand on that mansion.

Apart from the fact that I don't have access to 10 million to buy the mansion.

So maybe I am not the demand on the mansion.

But if someone offered me a line of credit allowing me to buy the mansion and I believed that the mansion would be worth 20 million in five years time, I'd take the line of credit and buy the mansion. And if someone else was offered a higher line of credit, maybe the mansion would sell for 20 million today.

You should know this.

It is your business model.








Most people do not do this Jimbo - they have much better risk management and a sense of self preservation that they learn the first time they overdo it on debt.

Loki
5 Mar 2016, 10:49 PM
So when Trollie stated above that there was no indication of a coming house price crash, he was essentially stating exactly nothing. Because there is no such thing. Right?

Sounds much like his understanding. Exactly nothing.
Exactly, there are some useful indicators - markets usually crash after many years (10 maybe more ) of large price growth - long enough that people forget markets can crash. This is where risk taking gets rather silly in some markets.

So I would be pretty certain we will not see a crash in Australia for quite some time.

Booms tend to happen when demand has been held back for one reason or another ie a prolonged downturn in usual buying and building patterns.

So there is a pretty good chance we will see some booming behaviour sometime in the near future.

So I would say the the chances of losing out with rising prices is higher than losing out due to falling prices. Plus you can always ride out a downturn - you can never catch up again when prices rise.


Barden is right they should teach this stuff in schools -it could save a lot of young people from getting sucked in by those dreadful doomster charlatans.


Edited by skamy, 6 Mar 2016, 01:07 AM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Dr Kinetoscope
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skamy
6 Mar 2016, 12:53 AM
you can always ride out a downturn - you can never catch up again when prices rise.


Complete and utter garbage. Agent speak, nothing more.

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skamy
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Jimbo
6 Mar 2016, 12:52 AM
I demand that I am surrounded by naked supermodels all day long as I wander around my Bondi supermansion.

But my demand means nothing if I can't fulfill it with money (or access to borrowing).

Price = (Supply/Demand)*Ability to pay.

Concede.

FFS concede.


Jimbo I am sorry but you are being truly dense here.

In your own example you need the demand ie the three people - without that then no amount of extra credit can move the market.

We are all in agreement that if the banks restrict lending so that some people who could buy and could pay down a loan are removed from the market.

However you and Veritas have this crazy idea that house prices are pushed up by available credit when the evidence is before your own eyes. Why have we so many different markets in Australia.

We all agree that people should not gamble with housing either at the top of a booming market or the bottom of a downturn. That is excessive risk taking and I have only ever witnessed it a few times. Most people simply do not behave like that.


Dr Kinetoscope
6 Mar 2016, 01:11 AM
Complete and utter garbage. Agent speak, nothing more.
How can you perpetrate such an outright lie? Of course i am right - the evidence is all around you now.

Point out where this is wrong - this is exactly what has happened since I first locked horns with your pompous self. There are loads of seriously depressed bears who listened to idiots like you -- who were trying to make then take dangerous risks with their own financial futures. Probably because you were driving some political agenda of your own.

This is common sense - you try to encourage too much second guessing the market - this is foolishness.

People buy a home to save rent - to lock in housing costs and location and hope for some capital gains as a city grows over the long term.

It is irresponsible to tell young people other than this.

The lying doomsters that made a huge chunk of Gen Y miss out on their opportunity to invest in a timely fashion in their own home deserve the disdain they get these days.

I bet your own grandma tells you the exact same thing I do.

Edited by skamy, 6 Mar 2016, 01:24 AM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Dr Kinetoscope
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skamy
6 Mar 2016, 01:15 AM
We all agree that people should not gamble with housing either at the top of a booming market or the bottom of a downturn. That is excessive risk taking and I have only ever witnessed it a few times. Most people simply do not behave like that.
So, only reckless people like the 'Property Investor of the Year 2012' Kate Moloney take excessive risks eh?
http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/2016/02/10/investment-property-dream-becomes-nightmare/

Most people simply don't behave like that eh? :re: Pull the other one.

If the industry is lauding people like this, what does it say about everyone else?
skamy
6 Mar 2016, 01:15 AM
How can you perpetrate such an outright lie? Of course i am right - the evidence is all around you now.

Point out where this is wrong - this is exactly what has happened since I first locked horns with your pompous self. There are loads of seriously depressed bears who listened to idiots like you -- who were trying to make then take dangerous risks with their own financial futures. Probably because you were driving some political agenda of your own.


I'm not, because it isn't. I've met numerous people in my line of work and elsewhere who have NOT been able to 'ride out' a downturn, as well as countless others who successfully invested in aggressively rising markets without being 'left behind forever'. Your line is straight out of the Real Estate Sales 101 guidebook sKamy.

Quote:
 
It is irresponsible to tell young people other than this.
I'm not. Where did I?

Quote:
 
I bet your own grandma tells you the exact same thing I do.
She has long since passed on. Thanks for bringing family into the debate. Unlike you, i'll take the high road and not bring yours into it.
Edited by Dr Kinetoscope, 6 Mar 2016, 01:38 AM.
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skamy
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Dr Kinetoscope
6 Mar 2016, 01:26 AM
So, only reckless people like the 'Property Investor of the Year 2012' Kate Moloney take excessive risks eh?
http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/2016/02/10/investment-property-dream-becomes-nightmare/

Most people simply don't behave like that eh? :re: Pull the other one.

If the industry is lauding people like this, what does it say about everyone else?

I'm not, because it isn't. I've met numerous people in my line of work and elsewhere who have NOT been able to 'ride out' a downturn, as well as countless others who successfully invested in aggressively rising markets without being 'left behind forever'. Your line is straight out of the Real Estate Sales 101 guidebook sKamy.


I'm not. Where did I?


She has long since passed on. Thanks for bringing family into the debate. Unlike you, i'll take the high road and not bring yours into it.
You are selling the idea to young people that the risk of buying only to witness a fall is greater than the risk of waiting only to witness a price rise.

This is an utter lie and you are shamefully perpetuating it. Your pathetic attempt to sell your lies by labeling me as a real estate spruiker is typical of your dishonest and agenda driven posting.


It is a bit rich to now pretend that you care about people who suffered in the downturn - you were wildly irresponsible in your doom and glooming throughout. Since I met you you have had one goal and one goal alone and that was to destabilise people in their own homes.

I have watched you relish bad news, job losses etc etc. Why shed crocodile tears over the misfortune of a few when you were wishing it on the many.

Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Dr Kinetoscope
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skamy
6 Mar 2016, 02:31 AM
You are selling the idea to young people that the risk of buying only to witness a fall is greater than the risk of waiting only to witness a price rise.

This is an utter lie and you are shamefully perpetuating it. Your pathetic attempt to sell your lies by labeling me as a real estate spruiker is typical of your dishonest and agenda driven posting.


It is a bit rich to now pretend that you care about people who suffered in the downturn - you were wildly irresponsible in your doom and glooming throughout. Since I met you you have had one goal and one goal alone and that was to destabilise people in their own homes.

I have watched you relish bad news, job losses etc etc. Why shed crocodile tears over the misfortune of a few when you were wishing it on the many.
What you have written here is a total fabrication - a cursory look at my post history will prove that to anyone. Interesting that you avoided the Kate Moloney article like a hot potato.

I constantly ask you, rather politely I might add, for evidence to back the accusations, such as these above. You always refuse. Every. single. time.

What's more, you refuse to apologise for bringing my family into the discussion. It's a typical ploy of yours - when you get called out on your bullshit you pursue personal attacks like this, discharging baseless slur after slur, whilst seeking immunity behind the crooked facade of an elderly lady.

You have no moral high ground whatsoever. It's embarrassing to see you constantly trying to claim it.

Edited by Dr Kinetoscope, 6 Mar 2016, 02:58 AM.
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skamy
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Dr Kinetoscope
6 Mar 2016, 02:55 AM
What you have written here is a total fabrication - a cursory look at my post history will prove that to anyone. Interesting that you avoided the Kate Moloney article like a hot potato.

I constantly ask you, rather politely I might add, for evidence to back the accusations, such as these above. You always refuse. Every. single. time.

What's more, you refuse to apologise for bringing my family into the discussion. It's a typical ploy of yours - when you get called out on your bullshit you pursue personal attacks like this, discharging baseless slur after slur, whilst seeking immunity behind the crooked facade of an elderly lady.

You have no moral high ground whatsoever. It's embarrassing to see you constantly trying to claim it.
Mate you just called me a real estate spruiker for telling the truth and you claim you take the high ground. You actually scrape the bottom of the barrel with your behaviour.

You behave in this rude dishonest way and then make a great carry on moaning and whining when you get an earful back at ya.

You are just as bad as the rest of the doom spruikers who lie to young people to drive their own agenda.

Why don't you correct your post to me ? - It is clear that it was me who was being honest NOT YOU. Go back and withdraw your lies and you might claim you actually do take the high ground occasionally.

Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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