Glenn Stevens last year with RBA Chris Joye nominated to RBA board. Scandal in the AOFM. Operation Fox Hunt/ Skynet to have larger impact on Ozzy house prices. BHP to be hammered. Aud go to 0.62cRoy Hill smashed too, with good chance of Palmer doing a Christopher SKase
definitely second the AOFM, it is scandalous the failed RMBS auctions to date
well indicated by the fact that the November 2015, and December 2015 auctions have been cancelled, no auction scheduled to be held for January 2016, and it is still undecided whether an auction will be held February 2016 http://aofm.gov.au/operational-notice/rmbs-auction-update/
US herd will recover from terrible drought over next two years.Just checked. Amazing how quickly things change when you aren't watching closely:
"Cattle in the U.S. are now the fattest they’ve ever been, signaling an end to the seven-year run of record beef prices just as losses begin to mount for American feedlot owners. Tom Fanning, who manages a feedlot herd of 30,000 in Buffalo, Oklahoma, says he loses $100 to $300 on each animal he sells to slaughtering plants, even though they are bigger and produce more meat than ever. Its worse for other producers. On average, industry losses began in December and ballooned to $420 a head this month, the Livestock Marketing Information Center estimates. Cattle futures have plunged 22 percent from an all-time high a year ago as the U.S. herd began a long-awaited expansion and consumers switched to cheaper chicken and pork. That’s squeezed feedlot owners .... The U.S. cattle herd had shrunk to the smallest since 1952 after a 2012 drought parched pastures and sent corn futures surging to a record. Spurred by the jump in beef, ranchers are showing signs of rebuilding their inventory. The herd on July 1 was 98.4 million head, up 2 percent from a year earlier and the first increase for that time of year since 2006, the USDA reported on July 25. As of Nov. 1, feedlots held more animals for that time of year since 2012 and were growing at the fastest rate in four years, government data show....." http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-27/fattest-ever-u-s-cattle-herd-signals-end-to-record-beef-prices
Been a lot of Oz rural land sales and gains made on the back of beef prices!
Glenn Stevens last year with RBA Chris Joye nominated to RBA board. Scandal in the AOFM. Operation Fox Hunt/ Skynet to have larger impact on Ozzy house prices. BHP to be hammered. Aud go to 0.62cRoy Hill smashed too, with good chance of Palmer doing a Christopher SKase
Overall land prices will continue to warm up during the year as they continue to gather momentum towards the mother of all booms in ten years’ time although the rental market will remain soft. The supply of money will also continue to grow and find its way into land values as normal.
Looking at the US for an indication of where we are going we should expect to see an increase of on line lending with a goal to arranging a mortgage “without speaking to anyone” a bit of a stretch for 2016 as will P2P mortgages be a bit too ambitious for 2016 although we might see an increasing trend in the use of P2P for the deposit and closing costs emerging with a happy medium of 25% P2P and 80% traditional creeping in and the savings on arrangement fees, lower rates and no LMI costs going towards higher prices. We could even see a market trend developing whereby inner city or tourist type properties best suited to Airbnb higher cashflow occupancy creating higher demand and sale prices for this type of property. Any improvements in credit availability or increased rent through P2P, online lending or Airbnb will be bullish for property as the land value will take all of the increased earnings created by easier credit or higher cashflow.
China won’t crash and we will start to see the completion of some of the early milestone stages of the unparalleled infrastructure expansion such as some of the projects as part of the mind blowing new Silk Road project. Some would say that Singapore property will double once the rail hits there but this is far later than 2016 but an indication of how this boom is warming up. The worldwide infrastructure boom will continue to increase land prices in all areas that are affected. In Australia this boom will be most pronounced in Sydney and Melbourne with increased land values resulting in huge state govt windfall gains, triggering huge infrastructure budgets that produce higher demand which will eventually result in some wage breakouts appearing in the construction sector in Sydney before the end of 2016.
We might even start to see an increased appetite for ballsier investment commitments being made during the latter half of the year due to the reduced penalties for insolvency that are scheduled to begin in 2017.
Might be too early for a rate rise in 2016 which should occur when our employment levels continue to improve and eventually hit the bank’s full employment target of 5.3% unemployed.
With the renewal of gas sales agreements scheduled in 2016 domestic gas consumers will be forced to pay more for their gas as they will have to compete against international consumers on a price basis. The NSW CSG freeze may have to be lifted in 2016. We should also see the commitment of the first Aussie standalone commercial scale production of shale gas in the NT basins, if so, then properties like these below would represent excellent buying opportunities for those prepared to bet on the developments proceeding.
The bears will continue to utilise their prolific gift of a sixth sense for seeing crashes that aren’t there and will hold out throughout the year with their blind faith in the next crash which will be just over the horizon and getting closer by the end of 2016.
Sydney +4% Melbourne +6% Brisbane (not incl GC or SC) +4% Gold Coast +6% Sunshine Coast +4% (but higher for high-end in Noosa) Perth -4% Adelaide, Darwin, Hobart - don't know
- Iron ore back up to $45USD by end 2016, drifts very slowly upwards from there. - Thermal coal flatlines in real terms for the year as a whole. (No specific price prediction, as there are too many grades/benchmarks.) - Met coal, follows iron ore veeerrry slowly back up. - Several lightly capitalised Australian minor coal miners manage to re-open existing mines. - Galilee-basin players (Adani, GVK/Hancock, Palmer) continue to face years-worth of environmental lawsuit hurdles. Only Adani perseveres, but the fate of their project is *still* undecided by the end of 2016. - Nearly all Australian iron-ore minors are in terminal financial strife (or bought out) by end-2016 - FMG survives, but there is ongoing questioning about its true cost of production - Gina Rinehart's Roy Hill (well, there's too much of a lawsuit risk to be specific...)
AUD bottoms at USD $0.65 somewhere mid-year 2016 But AUD ends 2016 @ USD $0.70-0.75 as commodity cycle shows clear signs of a bottom.
Overall land prices will continue to warm up during the year as they continue to gather momentum towards the mother of all booms in ten years’ time although the rental market will remain soft. The supply of money will also continue to grow and find its way into land values as normal.
Looking at the US for an indication of where we are going we should expect to see an increase of on line lending with a goal to arranging a mortgage “without speaking to anyone” a bit of a stretch for 2016 as will P2P mortgages be a bit too ambitious for 2016 although we might see an increasing trend in the use of P2P for the deposit and closing costs emerging with a happy medium of 25% P2P and 80% traditional creeping in and the savings on arrangement fees, lower rates and no LMI costs going towards higher prices. We could even see a market trend developing whereby inner city or tourist type properties best suited to Airbnb higher cashflow occupancy creating higher demand and sale prices for this type of property. Any improvements in credit availability or increased rent through P2P, online lending or Airbnb will be bullish for property as the land value will take all of the increased earnings created by easier credit or higher cashflow.
China won’t crash and we will start to see the completion of some of the early milestone stages of the unparalleled infrastructure expansion such as some of the projects as part of the mind blowing new Silk Road project. Some would say that Singapore property will double once the rail hits there but this is far later than 2016 but an indication of how this boom is warming up. The worldwide infrastructure boom will continue to increase land prices in all areas that are affected. In Australia this boom will be most pronounced in Sydney and Melbourne with increased land values resulting in huge state govt windfall gains, triggering huge infrastructure budgets that produce higher demand which will eventually result in some wage breakouts appearing in the construction sector in Sydney before the end of 2016.
We might even start to see an increased appetite for ballsier investment commitments being made during the latter half of the year due to the reduced penalties for insolvency that are scheduled to begin in 2017.
Might be too early for a rate rise in 2016 which should occur when our employment levels continue to improve and eventually hit the bank’s full employment target of 5.3% unemployed.
With the renewal of gas sales agreements scheduled in 2016 domestic gas consumers will be forced to pay more for their gas as they will have to compete against international consumers on a price basis. The NSW CSG freeze may have to be lifted in 2016. We should also see the commitment of the first Aussie standalone commercial scale production of shale gas in the NT basins, if so, then properties like these below would represent excellent buying opportunities for those prepared to bet on the developments proceeding.
The bears will continue to utilise their prolific gift of a sixth sense for seeing crashes that aren’t there and will hold out throughout the year with their blind faith in the next crash which will be just over the horizon and getting closer by the end of 2016.
Cant you see it, the year is finishing with politicians falling all over themselves to announce ever bigger packages and incentives to reinvigorate Australia’s potential. This always translates to increased land values. They are not interested in genuinely solving today’s economic problems and only exists to protect property rights and the monetary systems.
The current real estate cycle is only just getting warmed up and it’s going to be the biggest boom that you will ever see.
Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.
Forum Rules:
The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.
Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.
Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.
This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.
Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ
Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy