Nah, they'd only do it if it's subsidised by the taxpayer. Sydney -15+% Melbourne -10+% Brisbane -5% Perth -20+% Darwin -5% Adelaide +5% Hobart neutral
Shit you are letting your bitterness cloud reality aren't you Chris.
Sydney +5% Melbourne + 7% Brisbane +6.5% Perth - 2.5% Darwin -2% Adelaide 0% Hobart 0%
A$ $0.68 - $0.72
Unemployment 5.7% trending down
Inflation 2.3% trending up
Interest rates unchanged
Iron Ore US$39/t minor miners closing shop inevitable
XJO - 5,350
APF Predictions:
1) Terry to realise that he is not an omnipotent force just a flaccid cock stroker (October 2016) 2) Peter to point to the 0.01% depreciation of the A$ against the Nuevo Sol as proof that prices in Perth have "already fallen 40% in real terms" (March 2016) 3) Dimbo to finally realise that he will never buy back in for free and be vindicated, with his rental bill consuming all $120,000 of his USD investment profits (November 2016). However so committed is he to his "cause" that he will just lie in an additional $200k of non existent profits to tide him over another 2,800 posts
Sydney -5 - party's over Melbourne 0 - after rising early in the year Perth -15 - disastrous AUD .60
Ratings agencies finally cutting on states
Banks raise equity and tank further
IO under 30 to stay Most minor miners going under - but not without silly secondaries, help from declining AUD, etc. This will take longer than people think. FMG gets bid from China.
1. As I do every year, I predict the USA, UK, Japan, Australia, NZ, Canada will not go broke. They will not have failed bond auctions (in their own currency), and there will be no hyperinflation in these countries 2. US growth will continue to muddle through (sub 3% GDP growth). 3. The Fed will raise interest rates in the first 6 months of the year, however the year end the rate will be below the current "dot forecast" of 1.5%. 4. US 10 year bond yields will be lower than where they are today (2.2%) 5. The RBA cash target will be "one point something" by December. 6. Central Banks (and markets) will spend more time worrying about deflation rather than inflation. 7. Aust GDP growth will remain below trend (<3%) - unemployment over 6% by December 8. AUDUSD closer to 0.80 than 0.70 9. Aus House prices flat - Sydney best performer +3%. Perth the worst.
1) Sydney house price +7% 2) National house prices +5% 3) Gold continues its terminal decline, falling below US$900 4) Unemployment rate falls to 5.7% 5) Still no house price crash in any major Australian city 6) More bears vanish from APF to be replaced by new bears spruiking same tired old doom and gloom 7) Rastus, Golly and Terry continue to chase Shadow obsessively around the forum, trying in vain to score a point 8) Bears continue to bleat and wail about trolls and sockpuppets at every opportunity 9) Macrobusiness continue to get everything wrong 10) At least one of the States reintroduce First Home Buyer Grants for buyers of existing property
ok.
I am going to assume your predictions of % are for the end of Dec (not sometime between now and then).
1) Sydney house price +7% +1% or even slightly negative (-2%) if factors change locally although 21) might keep it to +1. 2) National house prices +5% +4% 3) Gold continues its terminal decline, falling below US$900 (terminal decline implies it is headed to USD $0, I doubt it will ever reach that so your flawed). I use AUD to purchase/sell gold, not sure why you wish to mix up AUD and USD on gold while sticking to AUD for property. AUD Price back to around $1,800 or higher for end of year. 4) Unemployment rate falls to 5.7% Rises to 5.9 % 5) Still no house price crash in any major Australian city - what is a house price crash over 12 months equate to ? (One capital city will suffer negative property prices > 6%) 6) More bears vanish from APF to be replaced by new bears spruiking same tired old doom and gloom - Some perth bears accounts will do the same thing. 7) Rastus, Golly and Terry continue to chase Shadow obsessively around the forum, trying in vain to score a point- Rastus will continue to highlight where shadow is lying, misleading or avoiding telling the truth. 7)a - Shadow will continue to lie, mislead and avoid telling the truth when it suits him while claiming he never lies. 7)b - Stringberg will continue to avoid highlighting shadow doing the above while jumping on many others who do similar things. 8) Bears Posters continue to bleat and wail about trolls and sockpuppets at every opportunity 9) Macrobusiness continue to get everything some things wrong, bull property bloggs will continue to trick people into thinking returns will be far better than they really are. 10) At least one of the States reintroduce First Home Buyer Grants for buyers of existing property - agreed 11) Gold Coast free standing houses + 10%
Non property directly:
12) A capital city in Australia will suffer a terrorist attack 13) BlackPanther will continue to post non property related new threads into the property section of the forum and continue to be the biggest bear on the forum while being 100% bullish on property. 14) I will continue to post with a tablet that has random letter misses and not particularly care about it or my use of " ' ", much to the annoyance of others. 15) Turnbull over Shorten 16) Shorten dumped 17) Turnbull under threat from factions, but not ever serious threat. 18) Clinton to win US election 19) Trump not in the final race for US Election. 20) Refugee crisis continues, border control breaks down. Middle East spills over into Europe like never before causing social unrest. 21) Australia and USA become quite popular with people looking to get out of Europe... Immigration applications hit record numbers. 22) Qld credit rating takes a hit down. 23) WA credit rating takes a hit down.
The prediction industry will be stronger than ever in 2016. However, the old farts will continue to be phased out as younger people with a different mind and skill set will be exploring more interesting and realistic ways to determine how markets and suburbanites behave. More students of statistics, big data, and behavior will find themselves more valuable in the employment market (if they have the balls to be able to think for themselves. If they don't, there might be an opportunity of a comfy position in the public sector where they can be as nondescript as they like).
Out in the suburbs, nothing much will change and expectations will be manipulated through the media and those expectations will be disseminated via the BBQ and other social interaction point such as water coolers, cafes, internet forums, etc. Predictive abilities will remain in the realm of reacting to what the suburbanite wants to believe. Few will take it any further to understanding forecasting beyond airy fairy ideas based on "what the important people say."
Disruptive events will possibly occur in 2016 of which the probabilistic nature is unknown and undetermined, except by those who have taken the time and have the ability to estimate those probabilities. These people are likely to accept that they may be wrong. The govts, banks, institutional analysts, etc will come out with quantified predictions based on a narrow set of assumptions and parameters. These predictions will be tailored and communicated to ensure that nobody loses face and contrary events will be nullified by a "couldn't have seen it coming" (perfect for placating the suburbs).
I predict that boxplots will again be underutilised at APF in 2016.
I also predict that Terry won't produce one single model or boxplot to support his protests against people who don't produce models or boxplots to support their views.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
I predict that boxplots will again be underutilised at APF in 2016.
I also predict that Terry won't produce one single model or boxplot to support his protests against people who don't produce models or boxplots to support their views.
Boxplots will be quickly forgotten by students once exams have passed, yet they will continue to be used in interesting ways, but not so much in the suburbs (outside schools).
12) A capital city in Australia will suffer a terrorist attack
20) Refugee crisis continues, border control breaks down. Middle East spills over into Europe like never before causing social unrest. 21) Australia and USA become quite popular with people looking to get out of Europe... Immigration applications hit record numbers.
Until they realise we have one of the highest Sunni Islam populations per capita in the world, comparable to France I think it's about 3% of the population.
Of cause the 3% isn't a reflection of hardline elements but in relative terms the same danger exists, they by in large however lack the capability and sophistication of their well trained European counterparts. They well and truly make up for it with what is recognised globally as some of the most hardline beliefs of all believers.
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