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The APF 2016 Predictions Thread
Topic Started: 18 Dec 2015, 04:01 PM (13,278 Views)
Bardon
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newjez
29 Dec 2016, 01:03 PM
Perth was about right, which is the only market I care about. Sydney and Melbourne wrong.

The rest weren't out of the ballpark.
So was Brisbane.

I guess you can get very big ballparks these days.
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Rastus2
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Rastus2
21 Dec 2015, 12:59 PM

ok.

I am going to assume your predictions of % are for the end of Dec (not sometime between now and then).

1) Sydney house price +7% +1% or even slightly negative (-2%) if factors change locally although 21) might keep it to +1.
2) National house prices +5% +4%
3) Gold continues its terminal decline, falling below US$900 (terminal decline implies it is headed to USD $0, I doubt it will ever reach that so your flawed). I use AUD to purchase/sell gold, not sure why you wish to mix up AUD and USD on gold while sticking to AUD for property. AUD Price back to around $1,800 or higher for end of year.
4) Unemployment rate falls to 5.7% Rises to 5.9 %
5) Still no house price crash in any major Australian city - what is a house price crash over 12 months equate to ? (One capital city will suffer negative property prices > 6%)
6) More bears vanish from APF to be replaced by new bears spruiking same tired old doom and gloom - Some perth bears accounts will do the same thing.
7) Rastus, Golly and Terry continue to chase Shadow obsessively around the forum, trying in vain to score a point- Rastus will continue to highlight where shadow is lying, misleading or avoiding telling the truth.
7)a - Shadow will continue to lie, mislead and avoid telling the truth when it suits him while claiming he never lies.
7)b - Stringberg will continue to avoid highlighting shadow doing the above while jumping on many others who do similar things.
8) Bears Posters continue to bleat and wail about trolls and sockpuppets at every opportunity
9) Macrobusiness continue to get everything some things wrong, bull property bloggs will continue to trick people into thinking returns will be far better than they really are.
10) At least one of the States reintroduce First Home Buyer Grants for buyers of existing property - agreed
11) Gold Coast free standing houses + 10%

Non property directly:

12) A capital city in Australia will suffer a terrorist attack
13) BlackPanther will continue to post non property related new threads into the property section of the forum and continue to be the biggest bear on the forum while being 100% bullish on property.
14) I will continue to post with a tablet that has random letter misses and not particularly care about it or my use of " ' ", much to the annoyance of others.
15) Turnbull over Shorten
16) Shorten dumped
17) Turnbull under threat from factions, but not ever serious threat.
18) Clinton to win US election
19) Trump not in the final race for US Election.
20) Refugee crisis continues, border control breaks down. Middle East spills over into Europe like never before causing social unrest.
21) Australia and USA become quite popular with people looking to get out of Europe... Immigration applications hit record numbers.
22) Qld credit rating takes a hit down.
23) WA credit rating takes a hit down.

Lets do the same for me :c)


1) Sydney house price +7% +1% or even slightly negative (-2%) if factors change locally although 21) might keep it to +1.
- too conservative

2) National house prices +5% +4% - too conservative

3) Gold continues its terminal decline, falling below US$900 (terminal decline implies it is headed to USD $0, I doubt it will ever reach that so your flawed). I use AUD to purchase/sell gold, not sure why you wish to mix up AUD and USD on gold while sticking to AUD for property. AUD Price back to around $1,800 or higher for end of year. - Got to $1,800 AUD but has since fallen... failed prediction

4) Unemployment rate falls to 5.7% Rises to 5.9 % - it rose to 6 %, then fell.

5) Still no house price crash in any major Australian city - what is a house price crash over 12 months equate to ? (One capital city will suffer negative property prices > 6%) - Perth > 3.5%, so failed prediction

6) More bears vanish from APF to be replaced by new bears spruiking same tired old doom and gloom - Some perth bears accounts will do the same thing. yup
7) Rastus, Golly and Terry continue to chase Shadow obsessively around the forum, trying in vain to score a point- Rastus will continue to highlight where shadow is lying, misleading or avoiding telling the truth. - yup
7)a - Shadow will continue to lie, mislead and avoid telling the truth when it suits him while claiming he never lies. - yup
7)b - Stringberg will continue to avoid highlighting shadow doing the above while jumping on many others who do similar things. - yup
8) Bears Posters continue to bleat and wail about trolls and sockpuppets at every opportunity - yup
9) Macrobusiness continue to get everything some things wrong, bull property bloggs will continue to trick people into thinking returns will be far better than they really are. - yup
10) At least one of the States reintroduce First Home Buyer Grants for buyers of existing property - agreed - not sure this happened
11) Gold Coast free standing houses + 10% - nope, I was too bullish.

Non property directly:

12) A capital city in Australia will suffer a terrorist attack - hmmm
13) BlackPanther will continue to post non property related new threads into the property section of the forum and continue to be the biggest bear on the forum while being 100% bullish on property. - yup
14) I will continue to post with a tablet that has random letter misses and not particularly care about it or my use of " ' ", much to the annoyance of others. - yup
15) Turnbull over Shorten - yup
16) Shorten dumped - nope
17) Turnbull under threat from factions, but not ever serious threat. - yup
18) Clinton to win US election - nope
19) Trump not in the final race for US Election. - nope x 2
20) Refugee crisis continues, border control breaks down. Middle East spills over into Europe like never before causing social unrest. - hmmm
21) Australia and USA become quite popular with people looking to get out of Europe... Immigration applications hit record numbers. - yup
22) Qld credit rating takes a hit down. - nope
23) WA credit rating takes a hit down. - nope
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Khaderbhai
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Wealthy Suburbanite

Shadow
20 Dec 2015, 10:56 AM
1) Sydney house price +7%
2) National house prices +5%
3) Gold continues its terminal decline, falling below US$900
4) Unemployment rate falls to 5.7%
5) Still no house price crash in any major Australian city
6) More bears vanish from APF to be replaced by new bears spruiking same tired old doom and gloom
7) Rastus, Golly and Terry continue to chase Shadow obsessively around the forum, trying in vain to score a point
8) Bears continue to bleat and wail about trolls and sockpuppets at every opportunity
9) Macrobusiness continue to get everything wrong
10) At least one of the States reintroduce First Home Buyer Grants for buyers of existing property
1 & 2. Full year 2016 data not out yet but latest quarterly data is shown below... http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/6416.0Sep%202016

Dec-2015 ... Syd -1.6, Aus +0.2
Mar-2016 ... Syd -0.7, Aus -0.2
Jun-2016 ... Syd +2.8, Aus 2.0
Sep-2016 ... Syd +2.6, Aus 1.5

With another ~2.5% growth for Sydney and ~2% for Australia in the Dec Quarter, we'll see Sydney at ~7% and Australia at ~5% for the year. Good call by the Mighty One.

3. Gold fell to $1050 this month. Not close enough though, so I guess this must be one of the 10-20% of predictions that The Great Shadow gets wrong.

4. Another excellent prediction by Lord Shadow.

5,6,7,8,9. All came to pass exactly as His Mightiness foretold. APF bears failing, bailing and wailing in record numbers.

10. Coming in 2017!

So that's an 80-90% success rate, as per normal for The Great One.

Only The Prophet BearTrap can achieve a 100% or higher success rate.

Cue Rastus to deal with this latest Shadow emergency.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Trollie
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Khaderbhai
29 Dec 2016, 03:09 PM


Cue Rastus to deal with this latest Shadow emergency.
F*ck, he just had to cancel his new years plans. There's a Shadow emergency to deal with.
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Jon Snow
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Bardon
29 Dec 2016, 12:54 PM
Domestic gas prices were less than the yare now when I made my prediction that they would rise.
Sure, and since you haven't provided any evidence of this, I'm sure I can take you at your word, such that it is. :lol :lol
Speak when you are angry and you will make the best speech you will ever regret.
Ambrose Bierce
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Bardon
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Jon Snow
29 Dec 2016, 10:49 PM
Sure, and since you haven't provided any evidence of this, I'm sure I can take you at your word, such that it is. :lol :lol
No dont just take my word for it look for yourself and all will be revealed.
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Jon Snow
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Bardon
29 Dec 2016, 11:00 PM
No dont just take my word for it look for yourself and all will be revealed.
I already have, and concluded you are full of it.
Speak when you are angry and you will make the best speech you will ever regret.
Ambrose Bierce
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Bardon
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Jon Snow
29 Dec 2016, 11:04 PM
I already have, and concluded you are full of it.
Yes market knowledge is one of my strong points.
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Jon Snow
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Bardon
29 Dec 2016, 11:06 PM
Yes market knowledge is one of my strong points.
When you are in the middle of a REM cycle, definitely. When you wake up tomorrow, see if you can find some actual evidence that supports your claim, or we will be left with the impression that you are simply an empty braggart.
Speak when you are angry and you will make the best speech you will ever regret.
Ambrose Bierce
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Bardon
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Jon Snow
29 Dec 2016, 11:08 PM
When you are in the middle of a REM cycle, definitely. When you wake up tomorrow, see if you can find some actual evidence that supports your claim, or we will be left with the impression that you are simply an empty braggart.
You know that you will always be envious of my foresight, nothing that I ever do or tell you will ever change your feelings about me.
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