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The APF 2016 Predictions Thread
Topic Started: 18 Dec 2015, 04:01 PM (13,277 Views)
Trollie
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Sydney +3%
Melbourne +4%
Brisbane +5%
Perth 0%
Darwin -3%
Hobart 0%

AUD 65 cents

unemployment flat

Turnbull with make a meal out of Bill shorten.
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Rufus
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Trollie
18 Dec 2015, 04:01 PM
Sydney +3%
Melbourne +4%
Brisbane +5%
Perth 0%
Darwin -3%
Hobart 0%

AUD 65 cents

unemployment flat

Turnbull with make a meal out of Bill shorten.
That looks reasonable, although as Brisbane has gained about 4% over the last 6 months I think Bris will do a little better than that, but then I was over optimistic in 2015 when I expected Brisbane to do a little better than it did.

Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Elastic
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Sydney flat
Melbourne +5%
Brisbane +5%
Perth -5%
Darwin -5%
Adelaide +2%
Hobart +2%

Not expecting any rate cuts in 2016 as NSW and Vic continue to grow strongly and inflation to pick up slightly.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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newjez
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Sydney -5%
Melbourne -3%
Brisbane 0%
Perth -5%
Darwin -7
Hobart 0%

AUD 60 cents

unemployment flat / higher

US rates 1% higher

Gold lower

Oil picking up from $20

Iron ore $30 but starting to look promising after many mine closures.

UK makes first rate rise end of year

EU stops qe.

Chinese growth falls below 5%

Far fetched

Isis dirty bomb causes 1000+ deaths

USA and NATO exchange fire

USA(partners) and China exchange fire

Ground troops in Syria, new Isis starts up in Libya
Edited by newjez, 18 Dec 2015, 05:43 PM.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Poontang
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Sydney + 3%
Melbourne + 5%
Brisbane +7%
Perth -8%
Darwin -5%
Hobart +5%

AUD 60 to 65 cents

unemployment 6.3%

US rates Lowered again
Gold in AUD to break $1800AUD gains from a rising USD Gold price and falling AUD (less than 10% from that target this year at one point)

Oil $25 to $30 Spiking greatly a possibility if (Middle Eastern/ European nations engage in armed conflict.

Iron ore Flat
Japan Increases stimulus (additional to that just announced)

More Stimulus in the EU

China Growth 5% to 6%

RBA Rate Same as now. 1 move up and 1 move down quite possible during year.
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict.
Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.

The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it.
The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.

Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
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Veritas
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Trollie
18 Dec 2015, 04:01 PM
Sydney +3%
Melbourne +4%
Brisbane +5%
Perth 0%
Darwin -3%
Hobart 0%

AUD 65 cents

unemployment flat

Turnbull with make a meal out of Bill shorten.
Gay marriage legalised.

Trollie marries Shadow.
Edited by Veritas, 19 Dec 2015, 06:07 PM.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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John Frum
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I have absolutely no idea. But plenty of faith.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness.
"Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
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Iownyourehome
Unregistered

By this time next year bear will be saying 2017 will be an interesting year and a big crash is 2 - 3 years away.....
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Chris
Default APF Avatar


Veritas
19 Dec 2015, 06:07 PM
Gay marriage legalised.

Trollie marries Shadow.
Nah, they'd only do it if it's subsidised by the taxpayer.
Elastic
18 Dec 2015, 04:43 PM
Sydney flat
Melbourne +5%
Brisbane +5%
Perth -5%
Darwin -5%
Adelaide +2%
Hobart +2%

Not expecting any rate cuts in 2016 as NSW and Vic continue to grow strongly and inflation to pick up slightly.
Sydney -15+%
Melbourne -10+%
Brisbane -5%
Perth -20+%
Darwin -5%
Adelaide +5%
Hobart neutral
Edited by Chris, 19 Dec 2015, 06:48 PM.
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Trollie
Member Avatar


Veritas
19 Dec 2015, 06:07 PM
Gay marriage legalised.

Trollie marries Shadow.
Maybe you could marry those sour grapes you keep holding onto?
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