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Foxbats new prediction; House prices and all assets to come under pressure
Topic Started: 25 Nov 2015, 06:17 PM (59,358 Views)
Foxy
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Zero is coming...

If you read this story you may get parallels with the Perth property market...


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-24/northwest-territorial-mint-scandal-investors-had-fair-warning-blowup-well
Mr President
25 May 2016, 12:49 PM
Your prediction is vague and meaningless. Come under pressure? What does that mean? There's always pressure on assets.

Give us a real prediction. By what percentage do you predict each of the following asset classes will drop, between now and lets say the end of 2017.

1. Perth median dwelling price
2. Sydney median dwelling price
3. Australia national median dwelling price
4. ASX200
5. Gold in Australian Dollars
6. Gold in US Dollars

Come on Foxy, time to make a proper prediction instead of waving your arms about.
I will go first, then you.
Gold Australian dollars, $2,000.00 within 12 months.
Australian dollar $0.63 to the U.S. Dolar within 12 months.
Perth house prices will continue to trend down, and for some investors, this is the subtle point will be worth zero dollars or In fact NEGITIVE, ( please try to understand this point), not all property owners are equal.

Now to clarify, I have weighted my investments to this trend, I am not dependent on the above happening.

My income stream is not dependent on the above.

So if it happens I can profit handsomely.

If it does not I simply do not care.

So again, do the math.

And ask one question is the upside potential greater or lesser than the downside risk.

Again do your own research.

And good luck.

Now it is your turn.



Edited by Foxy, 25 May 2016, 01:31 PM.
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Khaderbhai
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Wealthy Suburbanite

foxbat
25 May 2016, 01:03 PM
Perth house prices will continue to trend down
How much do you reckon Perth prices will have fallen (in nominal terms) within 12 months? 10%? 20%?

How about the All Ords... 20%?
Edited by Khaderbhai, 25 May 2016, 03:05 PM.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

Khaderbhai
25 May 2016, 03:04 PM
How much do you reckon Perth prices will have fallen (in nominal terms) within 12 months? 10%? 20%?

How about the All Ords... 20%?
I am looking at a unit in West Perth, valued at $3.8m during the boom, it is for sale now at $2.3.
You do the math.
:D

Your asking a question that has already been answered.
Just got to open your eyes.

I am thinking of offering $1.5m.
Edited by Foxy, 25 May 2016, 03:31 PM.
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Khaderbhai
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Wealthy Suburbanite

foxbat
25 May 2016, 03:30 PM
I am looking at a unit in West Perth, valued at $3.8m during the boom, it is for sale now at $2.3.
You do the math.
Doing the math, that's about 40%... so your call is for Perth's median to be down 40% (in AUD nominal terms) within 12 months. OK, let's lock that one in.

And then what about the All Ords? (you said all assets would be under pressure, so I assume you've given due consideration to equities?).
Edited by Khaderbhai, 25 May 2016, 03:38 PM.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Terry
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foxbat
25 May 2016, 03:30 PM
I am looking at a unit in West Perth, valued at $3.8m during the boom, it is for sale now at $2.3.
You do the math.
:D

Your asking a question that has already been answered.
Just got to open your eyes.

I am thinking of offering $1.5m.
That's the spirit Foxy. You can always wheel out the replacement cost puzzle. However, take it from me, the corporate world is a minefield at the moment and some of these people are better to take what they can get and go and study permaculture.
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newjez
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Mr President
25 May 2016, 12:49 PM
Your prediction is vague and meaningless. Come under pressure? What does that mean? There's always pressure on assets.

Give us a real prediction. By what percentage do you predict each of the following asset classes will drop, between now and lets say the end of 2017.

1. Perth median dwelling price
2. Sydney median dwelling price
3. Australia national median dwelling price
4. ASX200
5. Gold in Australian Dollars
6. Gold in US Dollars

Come on Foxy, time to make a proper prediction instead of waving your arms about.
Unless you can provide a formula which can be trusted, playing guessing games doesn't achieve much. We can all guess the beans in a jar, and one of us will be right, or at least closest. Does it mean that person has special powers? No. All you can really say is up, down or flat.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

Khaderbhai
25 May 2016, 03:37 PM
Doing the math, that's about 40%... so your call is for Perth's median to be down 40% (in AUD nominal terms) within 12 months. OK, let's lock that one in.

And then what about the All Ords? (you said all assets would be under pressure, so I assume you've given due consideration to equities?).
Hmmm, I always said "real" terms.

But your move is interesting.

I would like to explore the depth of your statment.

Without the preamble what is your point,

Are you prepared to state what your view of the Perth market will be in that time.

So I have stated that the Perth residential property market will drop by 40% in real terms from peak to trough, so I will renew that statment.

I thank you for acknowledging that the property I am looking at has dropped 40% in Nominal Terms, but in real terms the drop is closer to 90%,.

Anyway so as not to complicate this any more, you must take all the costs, let's say inputs, then deduct that from net sale price, so interest on the unit at say 5% on $3,000,000 for 8 years so, $1,200,000 in interest.

Renovation, $600,000.

All other fees, $400,000.

Now simple addition, $1,200,000 plus $600,000 plus $400,000 = $2,200,00 then agents fee of say, $50,000.

What is left.

newjez
25 May 2016, 06:45 PM
Unless you can provide a formula which can be trusted, playing guessing games doesn't achieve much. We can all guess the beans in a jar, and one of us will be right, or at least closest. Does it mean that person has special powers? No. All you can really say is up, down or flat.
Ok,
So,
Up, down or flat???

I said and remain 40% decline in real terms from peak to trough.

Peter
Terry
25 May 2016, 04:30 PM
That's the spirit Foxy. You can always wheel out the replacement cost puzzle. However, take it from me, the corporate world is a minefield at the moment and some of these people are better to take what they can get and go and study permaculture.
The owners never lived in it, only used it for cocktail parties.

Peter
Edited by Foxy, 25 May 2016, 09:09 PM.
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

Reality is coming.
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

Is this the start??


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-03/deutsche-bank-atms-block-cash-withdrawal-due-technical-glitch

Check out the gold price.


Peter
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

This is the no tucker part of Foxbats "compression".


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-03/were-hungry-and-tired-protesters-venezuela-march-toward-presidential-palace-demandin

You see, if you don't compensate the farmers, but instead over compensate the consumers what else could happen.

Simple logic.

Foxbat

Enjoy the ride boys and girls.

If you want to eat, find a farmer and pay them.

You must get the money to the producer, not the fat middleman. The middle man does not produce anything.
Mathews departure was so well timed, his stupid position became impossible to maintain,

As they say money talks and bullshit walks,


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-03/were-hungry-and-tired-protesters-venezuela-march-toward-presidential-palace-demandin

Keep walking boy...


Skamy, care to comment????

Or perhaps Trollie.

Any pearls of wisdom,

You fought Foxbat, what did you expect???
Edited by Foxy, 4 Jun 2016, 11:48 AM.
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