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Foxbats new prediction; House prices and all assets to come under pressure
Topic Started: 25 Nov 2015, 06:17 PM (59,359 Views)
Foxy
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Zero is coming...

I am not so much thinking that gold will go up as much as our dollar could go down.
So if the Australian dollar drops to fifty cents U.S.then I need to hedge that if I can, so some gold shares, if I get the right ones could do just that.

Luckily :oo:

That's what I want.
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/2016/04/14/great-house-price-myth/
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hidflect
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foxbat
18 May 2016, 12:56 PM
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-17/humungous-depression
For a lot of people, a taste of what's to come...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-17/middle-class-destitution-%E2%80%93-devastating-tale-americas-heartland

Fast food for now...

But why would a fast food mogul sell fast food to people with no money???

Shrink his boat by 6 feet???

I think not.
Oz wages are still very, very high. I'm sitting up here in Leonora earning 2.5x what I got in Tokyo for about 20% of the workload. A Geo just finished telling me there's no way he can get ahead on just his wage. I blinked. He's probably earning what a senior manager in a Japanese corporation gets. But prices in WA are so high, this place HAS to go through deflation to get anywhere near normal. A 500ml can of Coke from a vending machine in Tokyo is $1.20. Here? $3.00+. ANd don't give me that "transportation" line, either. If that was truly the factor then courier packages would cost 3x more but they don't. It's the overpriced cost of land rent forcing cost-push inflation on everything.
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

hidflect
22 May 2016, 07:54 PM
Oz wages are still very, very high. I'm sitting up here in Leonora earning 2.5x what I got in Tokyo for about 20% of the workload. A Geo just finished telling me there's no way he can get ahead on just his wage. I blinked. He's probably earning what a senior manager in a Japanese corporation gets. But prices in WA are so high, this place HAS to go through deflation to get anywhere near normal. A 500ml can of Coke from a vending machine in Tokyo is $1.20. Here? $3.00+. ANd don't give me that "transportation" line, either. If that was truly the factor then courier packages would cost 3x more but they don't. It's the overpriced cost of land rent forcing cost-push inflation on everything.
I talked to an accountant in the grotto on Christmas Island, he worked in a cooldrink factory in Germany, that can of soda is worth about $0.02, I worked in Leonora in 1983.
It must be getting cold.
Say hello to Larny at the Central hotel if you get time.
Peter
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newjez
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hidflect
22 May 2016, 07:54 PM
Oz wages are still very, very high. I'm sitting up here in Leonora earning 2.5x what I got in Tokyo for about 20% of the workload. A Geo just finished telling me there's no way he can get ahead on just his wage. I blinked. He's probably earning what a senior manager in a Japanese corporation gets. But prices in WA are so high, this place HAS to go through deflation to get anywhere near normal. A 500ml can of Coke from a vending machine in Tokyo is $1.20. Here? $3.00+. ANd don't give me that "transportation" line, either. If that was truly the factor then courier packages would cost 3x more but they don't. It's the overpriced cost of land rent forcing cost-push inflation on everything.
Try a bottle of water at Perth airport.

Friend just sold her house. Buyer has applied for $500,000 mortgage. Ouch.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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hidflect
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foxbat
22 May 2016, 08:07 PM
I talked to an accountant in the grotto on Christmas Island, he worked in a cooldrink factory in Germany, that can of soda is worth about $0.02, I worked in Leonora in 1983.
It must be getting cold.
Say hello to Larny at the Central hotel if you get time.
Peter
Ha, yes! It is getting frikkin' cold. I'm shivering every time I step out of the donga for a durie. I bought a six pack at the White House but I'll stop at the Central tomorrow.
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Trollie
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hidflect
22 May 2016, 07:54 PM
Oz wages are still very, very high. I'm sitting up here in Leonora earning 2.5x what I got in Tokyo for about 20% of the workload. A Geo just finished telling me there's no way he can get ahead on just his wage. I blinked. He's probably earning what a senior manager in a Japanese corporation gets. But prices in WA are so high, this place HAS to go through deflation to get anywhere near normal. A 500ml can of Coke from a vending machine in Tokyo is $1.20. Here? $3.00+. ANd don't give me that "transportation" line, either. If that was truly the factor then courier packages would cost 3x more but they don't. It's the overpriced cost of land rent forcing cost-push inflation on everything.
Our disposable income is 20% higher than the japanese

http://www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org/topics/income/

Their household wealth per capita is MUCH higher than ours.

You are full of shit.
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

Trollie
22 May 2016, 10:46 PM
Our disposable income is 20% higher than the japanese

http://www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org/topics/income/

Their household wealth per capita is MUCH higher than ours.

You are full of shit.
Your insight is something to behold.

Keep going, tell us more.

Please.
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

Foxbat asked me to restate and review his prediction,

Firstly if you have a home and it's paid for, this does not worry you in the least, particularly if you intend to leave it to your family on your death.

In other words it is a home, not an investment.

The over view is as property in Perth drops it will peel away firstly the people that are the closest to the margins.
So if you have an investor that went no money down interest only at the peak of the boom, and now has no job and an empty rental, well you go figure the math.

And as the leading edge of the economy mr. No money down starts to falter he (with a lag) starts to effect mr. 10% down, and so it goes.

So what I am now seeing is slack in the system building up, that slack affects the most marginal first.

Then as the marginal positions get taken out more property stock will hit the market, as I said when the tide goes out you know who was swimming with no bathers.

You may be surprised.

If anyone needs to know why we have zero interest rates in some places in the world, well this is a good place to start looking.

So some math.

$1m investment property.

At 5% interest. = $50,000 p.a., plus all other costs, $10,000.00

So $60,000 p.a. At least, minimum.

Now let's go worst case, and for 20,000 properties in Western Australia it is the unfortunate case, it is empty.

And let's say it is in Mount Lawley, well Mount Lawley is down 11.8% this year, so in this year alone, if our champion had a 10% deposit, he is underwater.

So let's look at this.

$60,000 just to hold the property for 1 year, plus a capital decline of say $118,000, so $178,000 down in just 1 year???

Ask yourself how long can the investor hold that position????

And you wonder why I sold???

We cleared out $2m plus from a market that unless we get loans paying us is in my opinion unsustainable.

In other words the properties will be like a boat, a great place to tear up perfectly good money.

Do your own research.

Foxbat


http://www.yourinvestmentpropertymag.com.au/market-report/wa/wa-excerpt-from-the-2016-may-market-report-215084.aspx
Edited by Foxy, 25 May 2016, 12:36 PM.
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Mr President
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Quote:
 
Foxbats new prediction; House prices and all assets to come under pressure
Your prediction is vague and meaningless. Come under pressure? What does that mean? There's always pressure on assets.

Give us a real prediction. By what percentage do you predict each of the following asset classes will drop, between now and lets say the end of 2017.

1. Perth median dwelling price
2. Sydney median dwelling price
3. Australia national median dwelling price
4. ASX200
5. Gold in Australian Dollars
6. Gold in US Dollars

Come on Foxy, time to make a proper prediction instead of waving your arms about.
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