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Foxbats new prediction; House prices and all assets to come under pressure
Topic Started: 25 Nov 2015, 06:17 PM (59,374 Views)
Tiger Lily
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foxbat
3 Feb 2016, 02:23 AM
Foxbat has spoken to me today.

He is an old fellow, some say a little odd.

He said Peter, you are going to live through the second great depression.
Tiger Lily spoke to me today. She said Foxbat is an idiot. She said 40% Perth fall haha LOL. :D
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

Tick tock...
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

Things will get cheaper...

http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/companies/adelaide-shoppers-embrace-aldi-as-the-retailer-opens-its-first-south-australian-stores/news-story/6193d67475b4449f3a70ca0fe58d4743
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skamy
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Veritas
27 Jan 2016, 01:05 PM
Do let us know how much your tenants take you for when the lease is up.

Rent reduction of 60 dollars a week perhaps?

If you're lucky.
Are you dreaming Veritas?

My rental yields are all good - actually up there among the best in the big Australian cities. Just because rents fell after the huge rises does not make IP owners lose a moments sleep.

You are making the big mistake of taking everyone else for fools.

You are also daft enough to assume that there are 10,000 rental vacancies when many of those adverts are now placed weeks before the tenant leaves.

Last year at this time everyone was renegotiating leases for reduced rents and there were 1387 new leases.

This week there are 1700 new leases, and you cannot use your old excuse of renegotiating this time around hey?

I am thinking we might even get a rent rise this year.

Veritas will you give away the crash dream now? WA has been hit by huge negative forces and last year we saw property prices recover and now we are seeing listings drop and number of sales increasing. Blind Freddy can see that your crash has yet again disappeared around the corner.

Don't follow the doomsters into losing more that a year or so's rent Veritas.


Rufus
28 Jan 2016, 09:42 PM
It's a nice enough place, but really there is nothing there. I doubt if I could last more than a week there. A tourist can only look at so many limestone caves and wineries before they get bored.

Why would they build an international airport to nowhere?
They would do better to target Esperance and/or Ningaloo reef these have serious tourism potential.

The Margaret river is indeed lovely it has a Noosa/Byron Bay type appeal on a much smaller scale. We go down there a lot for events and small holidays, I love Busselton, it just has a really nice vibe and we almost always see dolphins in the bay.

The biggest problem that the Margaret River has is its lack of good modern accommodation. We once stayed in a resort advertised as 4 star and it was back to the 70s and not even clean the aircon was ancient and the front was greasy. They charge 4 star prices because they have no competition because no one has invested there for ages.
Even the supposed 5 star resort in Dunsborough had pokey accommodation with no views (planning would not allow the resort to be seen from the sea).
foxbat
1 Feb 2016, 12:37 AM
When in a burning building jumping from the 100th floor looks like a great option.

Peter
straw man
titus
2 Feb 2016, 04:34 PM
Rule #1

Greed will ALWAYS lay you on your ass in due time.
Heed that lesson well young man.

It has been a good few generations since a person could buy a house cheaper than it was 9 years ago in Perth. You greedy gulpins crash spruikers who are hoping to squeeze home sellers further into the ground will get your comeuppance, just as the greedy Sydney and Melbourne bears did.

Wishing too much bad luck on your peers never leads to good Karma IMHO.
foxbat
3 Feb 2016, 02:23 AM
Just to be clear,

Foxbat has spoken to me today.

He is an old fellow, some say a little odd.

He said Peter, you are going to live through the second great depression.

It will be very good to you because you have prepared,

There is no problem for the people that are prepared to change.

Infact life will be better than ever, just do not hold onto the old ways.

Then we sauna.

Peter
Foxbat has been swallowing the zerohedge drama queens and their promises of future riches for their legions of angry young things and disaster for normal working people buying a home.

Come on Peter you know it is all bullshit really - zero hedge is not for smart people they are just the snake oil Armageddon salesmen of our day. Selling ideas that young people will get something for nothing and selling the financial futures of those same young people down the drain.
Edited by skamy, 4 Feb 2016, 11:32 AM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Elastic
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skamy
4 Feb 2016, 11:04 AM
Are you dreaming Veritas?

My rental yields are all good - actually up there among the best in the big Australian cities. Just because rents fell after the huge rises does not make IP owners lose a moments sleep.

You are making the big mistake of taking everyone else for fools.

You are also daft enough to assume that there are 10,000 rental vacancies when many of those adverts are now placed weeks before the tenant leaves.

Last year at this time everyone was renegotiating leases for reduced rents and there were 1387 new leases.

This week there are 1700 new leases, and you cannot use your old excuse of renegotiating this time around hey?

I am thinking we might even get a rent rise this year.

I am going to explain this to you once only because I don't wish to waste my time any further.

The number of new rentals being leased tells us the average length of tenancy.

I'll step you through this.
10000 available rentals, 6% vacancy means there 100/6 * 10000 = ~ 167000 rental properties in Perth.

This week there were 1700 new leases. If that was the case every week of the year we would have 52*1700 = 88400 rental properties leased for the year.
Then we divide 167000 by 88400 to get 1.89 years as the average length of tenancy.

You think that new leases is somehow equivalent to number of homes sold in determining the strength of the rental market.
In fact it indicates how regularly people are moving rentals and at the moment that is very often because they are looking for cheaper rentals.
When rents were skyrocketing a couple of years back, people were staying put because of the intense competition for rentals and so the number of new leases was very low.

The only number useful in determining the state of the rental market is the vacancy rate and rental prices.

Only a rat can win a rat race.

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skamy
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Elastic
4 Feb 2016, 11:52 AM
I am going to explain this to you once only because I don't wish to waste my time any further.

The number of new rentals being leased tells us the average length of tenancy.

I'll step you through this.
10000 available rentals, 6% vacancy means there 100/6 * 10000 = ~ 167000 rental properties in Perth.

This week there were 1700 new leases. If that was the case every week of the year we would have 52*1700 = 88400 rental properties leased for the year.
Then we divide 167000 by 88400 to get 1.89 years as the average length of tenancy.

You think that new leases is somehow equivalent to number of homes sold in determining the strength of the rental market.
In fact it indicates how regularly people are moving rentals and at the moment that is very often because they are looking for cheaper rentals.
When rents were skyrocketing a couple of years back, people were staying put because of the intense competition for rentals and so the number of new leases was very low.

The only number useful in determining the state of the rental market is the vacancy rate and rental prices.
Elastic you missed the point.

There are two pertinent things going on

1. There has been a significant increase in new leases to 1700. This cannot be explained by Veritas claiming it is people rewriting cheaper leases as we do not do rental leases over a year long as a rule. So there should have been the same number of new leases for that purpose as last year,ie 1387. If this continues and it is likely that it will - as a lot of regional workers move to Perth for the infrastructure spend projects, retail construction etc and improved retail opportunities, then it does not take a lot to move to a rental shortage in this town. It has happened over and over again.

2. Reiwa will always overshoot or undershoot on vacancy rate estimation. Why? because a few years ago people never even had to advertise a vacancy as the tenant would likely tell a friend as the market was so tight. So for many vacancies they would not even end up advertised on Reiwa. Now properties are advertised 3-4 weeks before the tenant vacates as the market is now a renters market. So one rental vacancy that may not have appeared at all now can show up over several weeks. Veritas is making the rookie mistake that 10,000 adverts is directly equivalent to 10,000 vacant rentals which is just silly.

Maybe actually reading my posts is not wasting your time Elastic - you should do it instead of arrogantly dismissing this old codgers wisdom.

The Perth bears are too greedy Elastic and they will get their fingers burned there is nothing surer. I am confident that older wiser members of their own families are telling them the cold hard facts too.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Elastic
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You may be old but you are definitely not wise.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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skamy
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Elastic
4 Feb 2016, 12:17 PM
You may be old but you are definitely not wise.
Aha Elastic - you provide no retraction for your errors in your previous post - in fact your only offer to this debate is an ad hominem.

You are not looking too wise yourself young man.

Why are you not interested in chasing down the truth? Why do you prefer to live in denial? You only disadvantage yourself.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Elastic
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skamy
4 Feb 2016, 12:26 PM
Aha Elastic - you provide no retraction for your errors in your previous post - in fact your only offer to this debate is an ad hominem.

You are not looking too wise yourself young man.

Why are you not interested in chasing down the truth? Why do you prefer to live in denial? You only disadvantage yourself.
Why has the vacancy rate continued to rise strongly over the past year despite the number of new leases being so high each week?

No idea?
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

skamy
4 Feb 2016, 11:04 AM
Are you dreaming Veritas?

My rental yields are all good - actually up there among the best in the big Australian cities. Just because rents fell after the huge rises does not make IP owners lose a moments sleep.

You are making the big mistake of taking everyone else for fools.

You are also daft enough to assume that there are 10,000 rental vacancies when many of those adverts are now placed weeks before the tenant leaves.

Last year at this time everyone was renegotiating leases for reduced rents and there were 1387 new leases.

This week there are 1700 new leases, and you cannot use your old excuse of renegotiating this time around hey?

I am thinking we might even get a rent rise this year.

Veritas will you give away the crash dream now? WA has been hit by huge negative forces and last year we saw property prices recover and now we are seeing listings drop and number of sales increasing. Blind Freddy can see that your crash has yet again disappeared around the corner.

Don't follow the doomsters into losing more that a year or so's rent Veritas.



They would do better to target Esperance and/or Ningaloo reef these have serious tourism potential.

The Margaret river is indeed lovely it has a Noosa/Byron Bay type appeal on a much smaller scale. We go down there a lot for events and small holidays, I love Busselton, it just has a really nice vibe and we almost always see dolphins in the bay.

The biggest problem that the Margaret River has is its lack of good modern accommodation. We once stayed in a resort advertised as 4 star and it was back to the 70s and not even clean the aircon was ancient and the front was greasy. They charge 4 star prices because they have no competition because no one has invested there for ages.
Even the supposed 5 star resort in Dunsborough had pokey accommodation with no views (planning would not allow the resort to be seen from the sea).

straw man

Heed that lesson well young man.

It has been a good few generations since a person could buy a house cheaper than it was 9 years ago in Perth. You greedy gulpins crash spruikers who are hoping to squeeze home sellers further into the ground will get your comeuppance, just as the greedy Sydney and Melbourne bears did.

Wishing too much bad luck on your peers never leads to good Karma IMHO.

Foxbat has been swallowing the zerohedge drama queens and their promises of future riches for their legions of angry young things and disaster for normal working people buying a home.

Come on Peter you know it is all bullshit really - zero hedge is not for smart people they are just the snake oil Armageddon salesmen of our day. Selling ideas that young people will get something for nothing and selling the financial futures of those same young people down the drain.
Well Skamy,
Interesting perspective.
House prices could double in Perth and still be down in real terms.

Again I ask, please state your yield on these "Assets".

After landtax, water rates, Shire rates, strata fees, management fees, insurance, cost of capital at say2%, your time and then income tax.

So triple net yield after tax.

Please Skamy answer this question in numbers not words.

Truth not rhetoric.

Peter

It will be so painful for you to actually do it and not create a fantasy world answer, I predict you will never answer the question.

Prove me wrong Skamy :D

Oh and the village idiot can have a go to, but he will never understand the question, let alone the answer.
Edited by Foxy, 4 Feb 2016, 02:44 PM.
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