I put the probability of a Perth median house price touching $356k to fulfil Drunkbats prophecy in the same basket as predictions that Perth will have a median of $1m by 2020. Contact Profile
I think Shadow, who made that prediction, has basically retired it now.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Oh dearie me you are not another one of those fools that have fallen for the "back to the good old days of bartering and gold standards" lunacy.
How can you ever expect to do well in today's world if you are going to spend your days harking back to the good old times in your Great Granddaddy's world.
What sort of fool should I be Shamy, one that accepts your stance on the world and nothing else.
You call me a fool and yet I'm happy to see opportunity and risk where you only ever see an infallible system that rewards risk. I'm sure after reading your posts most sound minded people are well aware of who the fool is.
As per usual Terry you interject to have your say without actually saying anything at all.
Suburbanite BBQ. Fuck off dickhead.
I would be more that interested to hear about human conditions and price floors and how Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs is transformed into social indicator.
Imagine you were holding court at the BBQ, how would you explain these phenomenon to a captive audience of suburbanites?
What sort of fool should I be Shamy, one that accepts your stance on the world and nothing else.
You call me a fool and yet I'm happy to see opportunity and risk where you only ever see an infallible system that rewards risk. I'm sure after reading your posts most sound minded people are well aware of who the fool is.
There are plenty of fools on this forum Chris.
Dimbo made an incredibly smart investment in US$ and US$ assets. That he sold his family home to do it instead of borrowing against it and now hands back the gains in rent because the second part of the puzzle (the price crash) hasn't materialised makes him a fool.
Terry is a smug fuck who denigrates every comment or opinion anyone has or makes, but does not make one himself. That makes him a fool.
Peter thinks that Australians transact houses in US$ and that prices have fallen 40% in US$ real terms. Neither is true so that makes him a fool.
I am a fool for trying to have intelligent conversations with people who simply want to close their eyes, block their ears and pray that the world ends but does not hurt them or their families on the way.
Most of the fools are the ones who sit on the edge waiting for a crash to come claiming anyone who hasn't sold out like them to wait like them is an idiot. They are not foolish for waiting on its own, they are fools for laughing at those who don't follow them and hope too.
That strategy may work for shares, may work for gold and other metals, but housing is not a short term flip to profitability. Transaction costs in and out are simply too high.
If you are looking to buy a house to live in then the question is will prices fall far enough, fast enough for me to recover my rent I spend waiting for the price fall. If the answer to that is yes, then by all means wait. If the answer is maybe or no, then you are wasting time and ultimately money waiting. To wait hoping makes you a fool.
If you are looking for an investment then the question should be can I generate a guaranteed yield of 5% or more? If the answer to that is yes then by all means buy. If the answer to that is no then I would buy TLS, CBA, NAB, WBC, SCG etc etc who have a current dividend yield greater than 5% and pocket franking credits.
The main reason I will not sell my first 2 IP's (first 2 PPOR's) is that I can simply not generate the same return on investment elsewhere if I was to sell them, pay fees, taxes and reinvest, so I am smarter to keep them and collect rent.
You seem to think you have nothing to learn here by listening to people who have succeeded by doing exactly what you want to do yourself Chris. That is what makes you, in my opinion, a fool. And I am sure I am not the only one who thinks it. Calling Skamy or others a fool for being able to succeed in what you yourself want to be successful in would generally be otherwise called Tall Poppy Syndrome.
You said you are looking for a home to live in. If that is true then what does it matter if prices fall 15% or rise 10%? It does not. Buy a house you are happy in and pay it off. Once you move you are moving within the market anyway.
If prices rise 10% before you buy, and you spend $50k in rent in the same timeframe waiting for prices to fall exactly how does that make you smart?
If they fall 20% and you have spent $50k in rent you my break even. That doesn't make you smart either, it just makes you older.
Terry
22 Jan 2016, 03:29 PM
I would be more that interested to hear about human conditions and price floors and how Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs is transformed into social indicator.
Imagine you were holding court at the BBQ, how would you explain these phenomenon to a captive audience of suburbanites?
I would be more interested in masturbating with a cheese grater than engaging in a discussion with a fuckstain like you.
Dimbo made an incredibly smart investment in US$ and US$ assets. That he sold his family home to do it instead of borrowing against it and now hands back the gains in rent because the second part of the puzzle (the price crash) hasn't materialised makes him a fool.
Terry is a smug fuck who denigrates every comment or opinion anyone has or makes, but does not make one himself. That makes him a fool.
Peter thinks that Australians transact houses in US$ and that prices have fallen 40% in US$ real terms. Neither is true so that makes him a fool.
I am a fool for trying to have intelligent conversations with people who simply want to close their eyes, block their ears and pray that the world ends but does not hurt them or their families on the way.
Most of the fools are the ones who sit on the edge waiting for a crash to come claiming anyone who hasn't sold out like them to wait like them is an idiot. They are not foolish for waiting on its own, they are fools for laughing at those who don't follow them and hope too.
That strategy may work for shares, may work for gold and other metals, but housing is not a short term flip to profitability. Transaction costs in and out are simply too high.
If you are looking to buy a house to live in then the question is will prices fall far enough, fast enough for me to recover my rent I spend waiting for the price fall. If the answer to that is yes, then by all means wait. If the answer is maybe or no, then you are wasting time and ultimately money waiting. To wait hoping makes you a fool.
If you are looking for an investment then the question should be can I generate a guaranteed yield of 5% or more? If the answer to that is yes then by all means buy. If the answer to that is no then I would buy TLS, CBA, NAB, WBC, SCG etc etc who have a current dividend yield greater than 5% and pocket franking credits.
The main reason I will not sell my first 2 IP's (first 2 PPOR's) is that I can simply not generate the same return on investment elsewhere if I was to sell them, pay fees, taxes and reinvest, so I am smarter to keep them and collect rent.
You seem to think you have nothing to learn here by listening to people who have succeeded by doing exactly what you want to do yourself Chris. That is what makes you, in my opinion, a fool. And I am sure I am not the only one who thinks it. Calling Skamy or others a fool for being able to succeed in what you yourself want to be successful in would generally be otherwise called Tall Poppy Syndrome.
You said you are looking for a home to live in. If that is true then what does it matter if prices fall 15% or rise 10%? It does not. Buy a house you are happy in and pay it off. Once you move you are moving within the market anyway.
If prices rise 10% before you buy, and you spend $50k in rent in the same timeframe waiting for prices to fall exactly how does that make you smart?
If they fall 20% and you have spent $50k in rent you my break even. That doesn't make you smart either, it just makes you older.
I would be more interested in masturbating with a cheese grater than engaging in a discussion with a fuckstain like you.
So was it effluent after all? How about the preceding ramble that you've just dazzled the world with?
I think Shadow, who made that prediction, has basically retired it now.
Shadow's prediction was for Perth house prices to approach $1M by the end of 2021 (not hit $1M by 2020 as you incorrectly claim). AFAIK he hasn't retired it, and it's looking more and more likely to eventuate the longer Perth fails to crash. Perth is now like a tightly coiled spring, getting ready to spring into life. Strong population growth, strong jobs growth, rising asking prices (SQM) and rising sales prices (RPData and Landgate). This could become the Mother of All Housing Booms. Shadow's prediction might be conservative.
That has absolutely noting to do with ordinary people buying houses to live in, that is just your piss weak attempt to divert attention away from your horribly bad prediction that has gone horribly wrong for you.
Now enough of this bullshit about Australian home prices measure in $USD or trying to divert attention by referring to land tax which few people pay, just accept the fact that your prediction was a piece of crap that probably hurt anyone who took notice of it.
Foxbat is a hairbrained lunatic with zero insight into anything.
Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.
Forum Rules:
The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.
Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.
Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.
This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.
Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ
Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy