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Foxbats new prediction; House prices and all assets to come under pressure
Topic Started: 25 Nov 2015, 06:17 PM (59,382 Views)
skamy
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Chris
22 Jan 2016, 07:47 AM
Shamy it's one for breakfast eeeeevery day, tastes so much better than real eggs.
Oh dearie me you are not another one of those fools that have fallen for the "back to the good old days of bartering and gold standards" lunacy.

How can you ever expect to do well in today's world if you are going to spend your days harking back to the good old times in your Great Granddaddy's world.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

skamy
22 Jan 2016, 10:53 AM
Oh dearie me you are not another one of those fools that have fallen for the "back to the good old days of bartering and gold standards" lunacy.

How can you ever expect to do well in today's world if you are going to spend your days harking back to the good old times in your Great Granddaddy's world.
Land tax Skamy...

Past three years please.

Peter

I just want to know if your land tax has doubled in that time.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/aurizon-seeks-relief-from-customers-as-coal-freight-volumes-slide-20160120-gmaj8h.html

Sounds good...
Edited by Foxy, 22 Jan 2016, 11:06 AM.
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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Rufus
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foxbat
22 Jan 2016, 10:56 AM
Land tax Skamy...

Past three years please.

Peter

I just want to know if your land tax has doubled in that time.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/aurizon-seeks-relief-from-customers-as-coal-freight-volumes-slide-20160120-gmaj8h.html

Sounds good...
Most people don't pay land tax.

What is your point, or is this just another of you very slippery posts.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

Rufus
22 Jan 2016, 11:54 AM
Most people don't pay land tax.

What is your point, or is this just another of you very slippery posts.
Do you pay landtax???
Skamy,
One question.

Do you accept that in U.S. dollars Perth real estate has dropped by say 50% in real terms over 3 years???

Peter
Edited by Foxy, 22 Jan 2016, 12:15 PM.
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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Matthew
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foxbat
21 Jan 2016, 11:10 PM
would you not agree that the "real" perth house prices are down at least 40% from their peak???

I for one would not, because it is false.

The last peak of Perth property was November 2014 at which point the median house price was $585,000. Adjusted for actual inflation over the past 14 months that is now $593,869 "in real terms".

The current market median is about $550,000.

1 Australian dollar continues to buy 1 Australian Dollar.

So in "real terms" Perth Property prices are currently down 7.4% from their peak and 5.9% in Nominal Terms A$ currency adjusted.

If you insist on continuing your long running role as the village idiot and crapping on about prices in US$ for Australian Property that does not transact in US$, the US$ in November 2014 (the peak) the inflation adjusted price of a Perth median house was US$510,667 (with the exchange rate of the day $.08599A$ = 1US$). Today that is $379,775 or a fall of 26%.

For you to be correct the current Perth median would need to be $356k in A$ terms, or $306,400 in US$ terms. No matter what you pick you are wrong. Get it or did the year 4 level math confuse you?

Perth house prices are not down 40% from their peak in real or nominal terms, in A$ or US$ terms. You are simply wrong.

Time for you to fuck off isn't it Drunkbat?
Edited by Matthew, 22 Jan 2016, 01:37 PM.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Veritas
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Matthew
22 Jan 2016, 01:35 PM
I for one would not, because it is false.

The last peak of Perth property was November 2014 at which point the median house price was $585,000. Adjusted for actual inflation over the past 14 months that is now $593,869 "in real terms".

The current market median is about $550,000.

1 Australian dollar continues to buy 1 Australian Dollar.

So in "real terms" Perth Property prices are currently down 7.4% from their peak and 5.9% in Nominal Terms A$ currency adjusted.

If you insist on continuing your long running role as the village idiot and crapping on about prices in US$ for Australian Property that does not transact in US$, the US$ in November 2014 (the peak) the inflation adjusted price of a Perth median house was US$510,667 (with the exchange rate of the day $.08599A$ = 1US$). Today that is $379,775 or a fall of 26%.

For you to be correct the current Perth median would need to be $356k in A$ terms, or $306,400 in US$ terms. No matter what you pick you are wrong. Get it or did the year 4 level math confuse you?

Perth house prices are not down 40% from their peak in real or nominal terms, in A$ or US$ terms. You are simply wrong.

Time for you to fuck off isn't it Drunkbat?
I agree. They are not down 40%

But he could still be proved right.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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hidflect
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Jimbo
21 Jan 2016, 10:42 PM
Most Seek ads don't state a salary.

It is very easy to run a query on any data set. Not so easy to get it right.

Maybe he looked at all WA jobs and specified a wage range. But where no wage is stated, that job will appear as matching, under and over the wage specified in the search criteria.

But I do agree with the findings. Three years ago we imported a highly skilled Engineer from Malaysia, paid his visa charges, paid for his family to fly over and check Perth out, check out the schools. Put them in a rental when they first arrived, paid their shipping costs, sorted him with a car.

Last week we let him go because we had nothing left for him to do (plus he was a lazy <unt).

If we needed a replacement, we wouldn't even need to log onto Seek. Just pick from the 5 or so a day that have been dropping in their CV's over the last year.








Most Seek ads don't state a salary to the end user but they ALL state a salary range to Seek. If you move the salary range sliders or type in a number, you can see what jobs pop in and out of view.
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Matthew
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Veritas
22 Jan 2016, 01:42 PM
I agree. They are not down 40%

But he could still be proved right.
He could be, but Drunkbat is saying it has already happened (in US$ terms) and will happen in A$ terms.

It has not happened in US$ terms, and is unlikely to happen in A$ terms (more likely to happen in US$ terms).

When assessing the likelihood however you need to look at factors more than just the nominal house value.

Last time we had a median house price of $356k in Perth was January 2006.

In December 2005 (to get full year results) RBA Cash Rate was 5.5% (now 2%). Wages have outpaced inflation significantly. Housing desirability remains strong amongst citizens.

Reality is that the human condition (Maslows hierarchy of needs or any other social indicator you choose to insert here) would put a floor under the median house price before that point. Market dynamic between rental cost and ownership cost would be broken somewhere around $500k (repayments on $500k are $620 per week) - remembering most people would pay a reasonable premium to live in a home that they own rather than pay for somebody elses.

If I was to put on a pair of bear paws and be as beary as Yogi, I would say Perth median property prices will not drop below $450,000. The economic conditions that would lead us to that point would make Australia almost unliveable as a country.

If I was to put on bull horns and bear feet to try and find the middle, I think it is believable that Perth property has a floor in median house pricing at something like $490k - $515k.

I put the probability of a Perth median house price touching $356k to fulfil Drunkbats prophecy in the same basket as predictions that Perth will have a median of $1m by 2020.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Terry
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Matthew
22 Jan 2016, 02:04 PM

Reality is that the human condition (Maslows hierarchy of needs or any other social indicator you choose to insert here) would put a floor under the median house price before that point. Market dynamic between rental cost and ownership cost would be broken somewhere around $500k (repayments on $500k are $620 per week) - remembering most people would pay a reasonable premium to live in a home that they own rather than pay for somebody elses.

The human condition provides a price floor.

Maslows hierarchy of needs is a "social indicator."

Wow....the effluent is flowing thick and fast.
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Matthew
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Terry
22 Jan 2016, 02:35 PM
The human condition provides a price floor.

Maslows hierarchy of needs is a "social indicator."

Wow....the effluent is flowing thick and fast.
As per usual Terry you interject to have your say without actually saying anything at all.

Suburbanite BBQ. Fuck off dickhead.
Edited by Matthew, 22 Jan 2016, 02:50 PM.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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