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Foxbats new prediction; House prices and all assets to come under pressure
Topic Started: 25 Nov 2015, 06:17 PM (59,411 Views)
skamy
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Elastic
26 Nov 2015, 03:09 PM
You don't need everybody selling their homes for prices to fall.
The market is whoever is selling, and if only the desperate are selling, and the vultures are buying, price falls happen.
Prices are sticky Elastic especially in a rich city like Perth.

People are not stretched they have the lowest housing purchase costs to income in the country. WA is still making money, iron ore export volumes are huge and soon the gas will start to flow. WA will get much more of its own GST back. WA is still growing at 3.5% for heavens sake, we are way way off any kind of recession - the bears are totally mad in the head expecting this economy to crash.

They have their head stuck in the doom and gloom sold by snake oil salesmen and they cannot see reality.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

skamy
26 Nov 2015, 02:09 PM
Peter, I am just saying Foxbat is not so good when it come to financial advice.

I note that you are still referring to the dodgy Perth news article which claims a 30% drop for Mosman park which was completely false - go check it out - the actual drop is just a few %. I posted links on the thread.

There has been no boom in Perth for over 9 years Peter. There was a boom in Karratha and that boom was unsustainable post the CAPEX spending. It is just ridiculous to compare the drop in a boomtown with the stagnation experienced in the Perth property during the same time.

Why don't you sell your expensive property in Perth ? I know why - because you are not going to sell into this poor market. I won't be selling, Blondie wont be selling Mike wont be selling, Mathew wont be selling -this is how most people in Perth will behave.

Yet, Foxbat tells you that somehow everybody is going to start selling their homes en mass with ridiculous losses of up to 40% - it is nonsense absolute nonsense.
Two things Skamy.

1) everyone sells
2) 40 % in real terms.

Are you able to confirm that you understand the concept of "real" terms pricing??

Peter

And Skamy i am not sure how you place me in the doom and gloom category when i have stated multiple times i have sold 3 properties in Perth and bought 9 in Margaret River.

Perth was just toppy with the mining money and Marges was flat on its back like a drunken whore.




Here is more Assumptions.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-25/if-everythings-awesome-why-did-aussie-capex-just-collapse-most-its-30-year-history

Tick tock....

Peter
Edited by Foxy, 26 Nov 2015, 03:51 PM.
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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Jimbo
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skamy
26 Nov 2015, 02:09 PM
It is just ridiculous to compare the drop in a boomtown with the stagnation experienced in the Perth property during the same time.
Let me get this straight.

Perth has been a stagnant market since 2007 and people have been gripped with fear since the GFC.

Too afraid to spend money and instead using every penny to save or pay down debt.

They have been holding off buying having been convinced by evil, selfish, crash spruiking bears and the MSM doomster cultists.

A boom is coming that will leave all the bears behind.

You are trying to rescue them from their foolishness so that they can enjoy a secure future.

Fair enough..


foxbat
26 Nov 2015, 03:24 PM
Ahh ya silly Billy, that is a Zero Hedge doomster blog post.

Maybe you should have posted the Bloomberg original...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-26/australian-business-investment-falls-by-record-as-mining-slumps
Edited by Jimbo, 26 Nov 2015, 04:27 PM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

Jimbo
26 Nov 2015, 04:20 PM
Let me get this straight.

Perth has been a stagnant market since 2007 and people have been gripped with fear since the GFC.

Too afraid to spend money and instead using every penny to save or pay down debt.

They have been holding off buying having been convinced by evil, selfish, crash spruiking bears and the MSM doomster cultists.

A boom is coming that will leave all the bears behind.

You are trying to rescue them from their foolishness so that they can enjoy a secure future.

Fair enough..



Ahh ya silly Billy, that is a Zero Hedge doomster blog post.

Maybe you should have posted the Bloomberg original...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-26/australian-business-investment-falls-by-record-as-mining-slumps
Perth and Australia avoided most of the GFC.

Not sure about this time.

Peter
Assumptions
25 Nov 2015, 06:25 PM
I'm still expecting at least an 80% drop in prices.

The 1st article mentions a 32% drop........only 8% to go and we're at the Half way mark!

Where are all the Bulls now?
Just look at the price of BHP.

Peter
There would be a lot of very wealthy people in the world sitting on an asset worth 60% less.

The houses are the flowers of the business world.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/companyInfo.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=BHP
Edited by Foxy, 26 Nov 2015, 05:13 PM.
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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doubleview
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foxbat
26 Nov 2015, 04:28 PM

Just look at the price of BHP.

Peter
BHP's share price says a thousand words alright.

C-mon bears....do the humane thing and leave the Perth bulls splash around and eat their own excrement.

They will all start turning on each other like starved wild dogs soon enough. As shit doesn't taste that good after a while.

Seriously, stop worrying about the PR hired fools....its for all to see now...anyone with half a brain knows who is real and who is vested/delusional or living under a rock.

The reality noose is that tight around their necks the lack of air is now making them all come across as delusional nut cases.

Yes we tried to warn the average mum an dad of the imminent/inevitable WA economic downturn, but now its too late for anyone who didn't listen.

Now its time to watch the bull shit artists talk shit among themselves and die their deaths much like a lot of the other fake phucks who have capitulated.

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2015/11/26/business-investment-hits-all-time-low
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

doubleview
26 Nov 2015, 05:22 PM
BHP's share price says a thousand words alright.

C-mon bears....do the humane thing and leave the Perth bulls splash around and eat their own excrement.

They will all start turning on each other like starved wild dogs soon enough. As shit doesn't taste that good after a while.

Seriously, stop worrying about the PR hired fools....its for all to see now...anyone with half a brain knows who is real and who is vested/delusional or living under a rock.

The reality noose is that tight around their necks the lack of air is now making them all come across as delusional nut cases.

Yes we tried to warn the average mum an dad of the imminent/inevitable WA economic downturn, but now its too late for anyone who didn't listen.

Now its time to watch the bull shit artists talk shit among themselves and die their deaths much like a lot of the other fake phucks who have capitulated.

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2015/11/26/business-investment-hits-all-time-low
Amen brother amen.

Peter
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k0UEw9lz6ng
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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skamy
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foxbat
26 Nov 2015, 03:24 PM
Two things Skamy.

1) everyone sells
2) 40 % in real terms.

Are you able to confirm that you understand the concept of "real" terms pricing??

Peter

And Skamy i am not sure how you place me in the doom and gloom category when i have stated multiple times i have sold 3 properties in Perth and bought 9 in Margaret River.

Perth was just toppy with the mining money and Marges was flat on its back like a drunken whore.




Here is more Assumptions.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-25/if-everythings-awesome-why-did-aussie-capex-just-collapse-most-its-30-year-history

Tick tock....

Peter
Read the article all it says is that this could lead to a disappointing recovery in growth. You guys are trying to make out there is going to be some big further price drop. The reality is that the WA economy is still growing and at a fair pace at that, 3.5%. Just think about that one fact for a few minutes this is a high growth economy by anyone's measure, - Why do you fall for the silly doomster claims that falling to 3% or 2% growth is gonna wipe us out? - Can you not see how much all this doomster nonsense is just drama about nothing.



It is obvious that the biggest growth in capex spending would be followed by the biggest fall. However, you guys act as if the party is over when this huge investment has just been made. You and I Peter know that the party is just beginning, this investment will deliver in spades to the Australian and WA economy over the next few decades.

Perth house prices have not changed since Capex spending was much much less than it is today ie in 2006/2007. If Capex spending affected house prices, prices would have boomed whereas prices are only about 3% higher than they were in 2007.
Posted Image

Zero Hedge is a drama queen's news source full of disinfo and anger and blame gaming etc etc. It has a lexicon of bubbles bursting, bloodbaths, imploding this and exploding that, most of ot is silly biased nonsense.

Perthite and Veritas think you are talking about real prices drops. Prices in real terms mean nothing to them- they are still wasting 10s of thousands in rent every year. Money that should be spent getting them nearer to the end of their mortgage.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Jimbo
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skamy
26 Nov 2015, 06:12 PM
Zero Hedge is a drama queen's news source full of disinfo and anger and blame gaming etc etc.
Try reading this one from doomster blog Bloomberg then...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-26/australian-business-investment-falls-by-record-as-mining-slumps
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Elastic
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HyBrasil or Perth?

I can't help but think of this scene every time I read one of Skamy's posts.



Only a rat can win a rat race.

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Veritas
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Jimbo
26 Nov 2015, 06:15 PM
It might be easier if Skamy just gave us a list of sources that are not part of the doomster death cult.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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