Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
Foxbats new prediction; House prices and all assets to come under pressure
Topic Started: 25 Nov 2015, 06:17 PM (59,388 Views)
skamy
Member Avatar


Jimbo
22 Dec 2015, 07:09 AM
One thing every surfer knows, is that the waves don't keep getting bigger forever.

They get bigger as the set builds and if you time it right, if you can count, you will make sure that you are in the right place to catch the biggest wave.

Taj and co make it look easy. Effortless. Anybody can do it?

But if you don't understand the basics, you will miss the big wave and sit there out the back watching those who do understand, have the ride of their lives.

Bobbing around, in a falling swell, at the mercy of the sharks, as the sun goes down, waiting to have your bones picked.

Peaks are hard to spot if you don't know what you are looking for. If you go in the water thinking it is easy because someone told you it was easy.

Get dumped a few times and you will soon learn.

But if you are going to learn, don't set off blind in the biggest swell WA has ever seen. So many did, so many will be left behind, to be eaten by the sharks.

Tried to warn you all.

You wouldn't listen, you knew how to surf the big waves because you went to a seminar and read a blog.

I'm in the beach bar watching.
Nice rhetoric Jimbo. The only trouble is that the waves have not been building to a crescendo they have been flat as a pancake for almost a decade.


Chris
3 Jan 2016, 06:07 PM
A very good question, I realise it's leading but a good question none the less. It's all a matter of justification Matthew, it's not a matter of a price point really. What I can afford could buy an extremely nice place 40-50km from the cbd, if would also buy something pretty shit closer to the cbd so it's very much in the middle ground. If I could buy something shit e.g. 2 bedroom house 15-20km from the city I would but 6-700k is just insanity.

The reality is I am being asked to take on 3 times the debt level than my olds for their first home, either way I go I am fucked before I start something you will never comprehend.
This is just not true. You will take on very similar debt repayments to income as your parents.

You want to wipe out all the city growth that your parents witnessed and get a home in a much bigger city for the same price today. That is completely unreasonable.

We could not afford to buy where our parents bought either that is just the consequences of living in a growing city. We still did as well as our parents as the city growth continued.

The young Sydneysiders who bought on Rudds FHB grants in 2012 have seen better capital growth than your parents could have dreamed off in their first few years of home ownership.

My Uncle could have bought a big house in Centennial Park for $25K in the 60s/70s do you seriously think big houses in Centennial Park will ever be affordable to building site labourers again?

You should sanity test some of your notions Chris before you get left behind like the legions of eternal doomsters from the 90s who are now renting way out is Sydney's western suburbs.
Jimbo
3 Jan 2016, 06:27 PM
If you attend a home open, they will ask you to fill in a registration form. Some will insist you fill it in before you look around (not so much now, but back in 2007, defo).

They want to know how much you have to spend. The maximum you can borrow plus every penny you can get from selling all of your stuff and bludging a few grand from your parents and mates.

They will then milk you for every cent of that plus 10% extra for good measure.

I don't fill out the forms. I had one agent a few weeks ago tell me that registration was complusory for "security purposes".

I showed her my driving licence and told her I had a sprained wrist and couldn't write.

Never, ever, ever tell the person you are buying from, how much you are prepared to pay.
What rubbish? I have never ever been asked to fill in such information in my life. You make up some right tales sometimes Jimbo.
hidflect
4 Jan 2016, 02:04 AM
Precisely. $450K tops anywhere else. It's the banks' willingness to lend the money that has lowered the bar to entrants and ballooned the demand of people with capacity. As somebody insightfully asked, "How much would houses cost if people couldn't borrow 8x their wages?". The levels of demand and supply would be the same, just the level of price would be massively lower. That would've left more money over to spend on the real economy or even reduce wages but it was not to be. Banks hoover profits on billions in debt and distort the market doing it.
Sheesh you are totally crazy.

Who the heck borrows 8 times their wage? No bank ever would lend under those conditions.

People borrow such that the cost of servicing is about 30% of their income.

Where on earth do you guys get this silly nonsense from.

Edited by skamy, 19 Jan 2016, 12:48 PM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Foxy
Member Avatar
Zero is coming...

skamy
19 Jan 2016, 12:21 PM
Nice rhetoric Jimbo. The only trouble is that the waves have not been building to a crescendo they have been flat as a pancake for almost a decade.



This is just not true. You will take on very similar debt repayments to income as your parents.

You want to wipe out all the city growth that your parents witnessed and get a home in a much bigger city for the same price today. That is completely unreasonable.

We could not afford to buy where our parents bought either that is just the consequences of living in a growing city. We still did as well as our parents as the city growth continued.

The young Sydneysiders who bought on Rudds FHB grants in 2012 have seen better capital growth than your parents could have dreamed off in their first few years of home ownership.

My Uncle could have bought a big house in Centennial Park for $25K in the 60s/70s do you seriously think big houses in Centennial Park will ever be affordable to building site labourers again?

You should sanity test some of your notions Chris before you get left behind like the legions of eternal doomsters from the 90s who are now renting way out is Sydney's western suburbs.

What rubbish? I have never ever been asked to fill in such information in my life. You make up some right tales sometimes Jimbo.
Skamy your faith in the past is astonishing.

Walking into the future backwards works until it does not.

Agents do try to get as much info on you as possible at home opens.

I just hand them my business card and tell them to fill in their forms.

And please remember the key is that our money has lost value, so if you could have bought bread in 1964 and kept it till today and it was still "fresh" you would find it would have been a great investment.

Or cigarettes now $40 per pack or whiskey or art or any number of things that cost just a few dollars or cents.

Gold?? Silver""

You see homes are a hedge against inflation or dollar destruction.

But they still come at a cost..


https://www.google.com.au/search?q=purchasing+power+of+u.s.+dollar+chart&espv=2&biw=911&bih=449&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjO_5rt4LTKAhWH5KYKHZTIAGkQ_AUIBigB#imgrc=qeVmcHjVHpWo1M%3A


Skamy you are basically using the position of a child in a sandpit, saying the rules as you see it.
Not dishonest but limited in your view.

Houses perform many functions for people, only one of them being somewhere to live.

1) store of wealth
2) Prestige symbol
3) Hedge against inflation
4) A means of raising capital.

Peter

From this can be built a matrix.

A person with an unencumbered house has many options.

I have a number of "houses" i have never said i would have no houses as i live in the society that "values" houses.

I will not add to that holding at this time.

Perth in my opinion must adjust to the post mining boom normal.

I do not want to get caught in that readjustment phase.













https://www.google.com.au/search?q=purchasing+power+of+u.s.+dollar+chart&espv=2&biw=911&bih=449&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjO_5rt4LTKAhWH5KYKHZTIAGkQ_AUIBigB#imgrc=y9HqghAYB4s3wM%3A


Have your houses gone up in "real" terms???

I am not so sure...

Peter
Edited by Foxy, 19 Jan 2016, 12:56 PM.
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
skamy
Member Avatar


foxbat
19 Jan 2016, 12:55 PM
Skamy your faith in the past is astonishing.

Walking into the future backwards works until it does not.

Agents do try to get as much info on you as possible at home opens.

I just hand them my business card and tell them to fill in their forms.

And please remember the key is that our money has lost value, so if you could have bought bread in 1964 and kept it till today and it was still "fresh" you would find it would have been a great investment.

Or cigarettes now $40 per pack or whiskey or art or any number of things that cost just a few dollars or cents.

Gold?? Silver""

You see homes are a hedge against inflation or dollar destruction.

But they still come at a cost..


https://www.google.com.au/search?q=purchasing+power+of+u.s.+dollar+chart&espv=2&biw=911&bih=449&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjO_5rt4LTKAhWH5KYKHZTIAGkQ_AUIBigB#imgrc=qeVmcHjVHpWo1M%3A


Skamy you are basically using the position of a child in a sandpit, saying the rules as you see it.
Not dishonest but limited in your view.

Houses perform many functions for people, only one of them being somewhere to live.

1) store of wealth
2) Prestige symbol
3) Hedge against inflation
4) A means of raising capital.

Peter

From this can be built a matrix.

A person with an unencumbered house has many options.

I have a number of "houses" i have never said i would have no houses as i live in the society that "values" houses.

I will not add to that holding at this time.

Perth in my opinion must adjust to the post mining boom normal.

I do not want to get caught in that readjustment phase.













https://www.google.com.au/search?q=purchasing+power+of+u.s.+dollar+chart&espv=2&biw=911&bih=449&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjO_5rt4LTKAhWH5KYKHZTIAGkQ_AUIBigB#imgrc=y9HqghAYB4s3wM%3A


Have your houses gone up in "real" terms???

I am not so sure...

Peter
Peter,

Perth is taking a very long time to adjust, don't you think you may be the one failing to understand the lessons in the past.

All the crap you post from sites like zerohedge is mostly garbage that sites like these have been selling angry young things for generations.

Read this
http://www.infomarketingblog.com/armageddon-advertising/

These fake economic pundits sell a heady mix. They offer people the promise of huge financial gains for zero effort. They make up and exaggerate economic tales of woe that convince pundits that they will get the chance to outsmart all their peers. They sell people not only a dream of making a motza but a dream of watching others get their comeuppance. They tailor their messages for the angry disenfranchised punters.

I am surprised you have fallen for it Peter.

The real bargains in WA at the moment are the multimillion dollar homes some of which are still selling at almost 1/2 the price they sold for at peak. The under $1m market is steady it has recovered from the worst of the GFC. The Margaret River has some great buys but there is just so much land available down there and it also depends on rich Perthites for its value.

I think you have an ok investment strategy - especially that you choose to hold your expensive Perth properties. However, your constant wishing upon a dream for a Perth crash is IMHO borderline insanity. Stupid people do not know how much WA earns but you and I know don't we Peter. The State is still a top performer compared to other states, there will be no crash.

Read today's Business News and don't get caught with no shorts on when the tide goes out.


Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Foxy
Member Avatar
Zero is coming...

Again a simplistic view, i have never wished that the Perth market has a "collapse", i am simply observing the laws of supply and demand.

And i have repeated that theme many times.

By the way Perth property has had a 40% plus drop in value against the U.S. dollar.

And in a very short time.

Skamey, i really hope you are right, i never for one moment want you to lose money or value on your investments.

I am simply putting forward my view.

I have hedged my position against a dramatic drop in the Australian dollar and a dramatic drop in Perth property values.

I have still got my main Perth property.

And it is not for sale.

My view is that Perth property will drop 40% in "real" terms.

It has already done that when valued against the worlds reserve currency.

And it did it in a very short space of time.

Skamey without talking about a completely different subject can you please acknowledge that fact.

So i will spell it out for you to make it easy.

I Skamey agree that Foxbats call of a 40% drop in "real terms" for Perth property has already happened, when valued in the worlds official reserve currency.

If you have any issues understanding any part of the above statement please let me know and i can help you work through it.

Peter

But please do not come up with a chart of fish and chip prices in Rockingham or some other totally unrelated subject.



http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Lizzie
Unregistered

foxbat
19 Jan 2016, 02:53 PM
But please do not come up with a chart of fish and chip prices in Rockingham or some other totally unrelated subject.



Your original prediction was a 40 pc fall and you didnt mention real terms. Later you changed it to real terms. Now your changing it again to a 40 pc fall against a foreign currency. By that measure nearly everything in Australia has fallen 40 pc which makes your prediction meaningless and facile.
"REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
skamy
Member Avatar


foxbat
19 Jan 2016, 02:53 PM
Again a simplistic view, i have never wished that the Perth market has a "collapse", i am simply observing the laws of supply and demand.

And i have repeated that theme many times.

By the way Perth property has had a 40% plus drop in value against the U.S. dollar.

And in a very short time.

Skamey, i really hope you are right, i never for one moment want you to lose money or value on your investments.

I am simply putting forward my view.

I have hedged my position against a dramatic drop in the Australian dollar and a dramatic drop in Perth property values.

I have still got my main Perth property.

And it is not for sale.

My view is that Perth property will drop 40% in "real" terms.

It has already done that when valued against the worlds reserve currency.

And it did it in a very short space of time.

Skamey without talking about a completely different subject can you please acknowledge that fact.

So i will spell it out for you to make it easy.

I Skamey agree that Foxbats call of a 40% drop in "real terms" for Perth property has already happened, when valued in the worlds official reserve currency.

If you have any issues understanding any part of the above statement please let me know and i can help you work through it.

Peter

But please do not come up with a chart of fish and chip prices in Rockingham or some other totally unrelated subject.



No that is a cop out Peter - you never predicted the dropping AUD you made wild predictions on dropping house prices. This has not occurred.



You could have borrowed off any of your homes and invested in USD however this was not the play which you made.

You claimed that Perth prices would drop by 40% and you have been wrong and that is just them facts Peter.


Your news sources are seriously dodgy Peter, these blogs and so called alternative economic analysis (which is always doom and glooming) are selling a recipe that has sold to the disenfranchised for decades.

Are you seriously trying to wiggle out of your 40% claims? I debated you at the start and I know exactly the line you were selling.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
H.E Pennypacker
Member Avatar

Posted Image
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Terry
Member Avatar


foxbat
19 Jan 2016, 02:53 PM
My view is that Perth property will drop 40% in "real" terms.

It has already done that when valued against the worlds reserve currency.

And it did it in a very short space of time.

Not at all an unrealistic possibility. That might trigger a few gasps in the suburbs, audible or not, but not a ludicrous outcome at all.
Edited by Terry, 19 Jan 2016, 08:27 PM.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Foxy
Member Avatar
Zero is coming...

skamy
19 Jan 2016, 07:47 PM
No that is a cop out Peter - you never predicted the dropping AUD you made wild predictions on dropping house prices. This has not occurred.



You could have borrowed off any of your homes and invested in USD however this was not the play which you made.

You claimed that Perth prices would drop by 40% and you have been wrong and that is just them facts Peter.


Your news sources are seriously dodgy Peter, these blogs and so called alternative economic analysis (which is always doom and glooming) are selling a recipe that has sold to the disenfranchised for decades.

Are you seriously trying to wiggle out of your 40% claims? I debated you at the start and I know exactly the line you were selling.
The original post seed was in "real" terms.
Read page one of the thread.

Peter
http://australianpropertyforum.com/topic/10276715/1/

I always said "real" terms.

Peter
Lizzie
19 Jan 2016, 07:29 PM
Your original prediction was a 40 pc fall and you didnt mention real terms. Later you changed it to real terms. Now your changing it again to a 40 pc fall against a foreign currency. By that measure nearly everything in Australia has fallen 40 pc which makes your prediction meaningless and facile.
So you agree that everything in Australia has dropped by 40% in real terms valued against the worlds reserve currency??

Good, that was easy...

Peter

Oh,
Crayfish just hit $90 per kilo.
But not in U.S. dollars :D :D :D
Edited by Foxy, 20 Jan 2016, 12:11 AM.
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
skamy
Member Avatar


foxbat
20 Jan 2016, 12:02 AM
The original post seed was in "real" terms.
Read page one of the thread.

Peter
http://australianpropertyforum.com/topic/10276715/1/

I always said "real" terms.

Peter

So you agree that everything in Australia has dropped by 40% in real terms valued against the worlds reserve currency??

Good, that was easy...

Peter

Oh,
Crayfish just hit $90 per kilo.
But not in U.S. dollars :D :D :D
wriggle wriggle

You called it wrong Peter cop it sweet.

Are you claiming that your 40% crash has been and gone.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
ZetaBoards - Free Forum Hosting
Create a free forum in seconds.
Learn More · Register for Free
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy