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Foxbats new prediction; House prices and all assets to come under pressure
Topic Started: 25 Nov 2015, 06:17 PM (59,412 Views)
kodiak
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Sydney appears to have peaked. Melbourne is going full retard, but the peak is near.

Perth is going to be ugly as a bucket of arseholes. And it's going to last for years. IO will probably bounce off 40, but it will break 40 and possibly get to a 2-handle. There's going to be an epic wipeout of all the miners save RIO and BHP (both with considerable pain) and perhaps FMG if Twiggy cuts a deal with the Chinese or Australian government. All of the industries reliant on the mining dollar are are double-fisted.

Miners down. Banks down. ASX down. AUD down. Imported inflation up.
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Matthew
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John F. Kennedy
25 Nov 2015, 08:46 PM
There will be some place in a Karri forest with a name like "gnanjerup" where prices will fall 80%. Or more. So this man will be right! No laughing matter.
Wont happen.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

kodiak
25 Nov 2015, 10:28 PM
Sydney appears to have peaked. Melbourne is going full retard, but the peak is near.

Perth is going to be ugly as a bucket of arseholes. And it's going to last for years. IO will probably bounce off 40, but it will break 40 and possibly get to a 2-handle. There's going to be an epic wipeout of all the miners save RIO and BHP (both with considerable pain) and perhaps FMG if Twiggy cuts a deal with the Chinese or Australian government. All of the industries reliant on the mining dollar are are double-fisted.

Miners down. Banks down. ASX down. AUD down. Imported inflation up.
Man it is going to hurt...

Double bubble.

Peter
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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Chris
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stinkbug
25 Nov 2015, 08:49 PM
There will always be outliers, but a median drop of 80%...?
The worlds a strange place, if you think about it, any things possible!

It's funny though that you wouldn't give an 80% rise in the midst of a boom a second thought but you scoff at an 80% decline as though it is conceivably and literally impossible.

Just because something is improbable does not make it impossible.
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

http://hfgapps.hubb.com/asxtools/Charts.aspx?asxCode=BHP&chartType=3&volumeInd=9&TimeFrame=D6
http://hfgapps.hubb.com/asxtools/Charts.aspx?asxCode=RIO&compare=comp_index&indicies=0&pma1=0&pma2=0&volumeInd=9&vma=0&TimeFrame=M5
http://hfgapps.hubb.com/asxtools/Charts.aspx?asxCode=fmg&compare=comp_index&indicies=0&pma1=0&pma2=0&volumeInd=9&vma=0&TimeFrame=M5


Can someone do the percentage drops in "real" terms for these companies over say 3 years please.

Remembering these companies control Australia's biggest money earning commodity.

Edited by Foxy, 26 Nov 2015, 11:18 AM.
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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Matthew
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Chris
26 Nov 2015, 10:49 AM
It's funny though that you wouldn't give an 80% rise in the midst of a boom a second thought but you scoff at an 80% decline as though it is conceivably and literally impossible.
I would give an 80% rise a second thought, I would think it is a bubble that must come to an end.

But in 8 years property prices in Perth haven't budged an inch. Deflation has occurred without the crash. Affordability is restored.

Sydney and Melbourne could crash. They could also stagnate for the next decade. Both events have the same effect on pricing, one is just not spectacular enough for the bears to feel the vindication that they crave.

My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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skamy
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Assumptions
25 Nov 2015, 06:25 PM
I'm still expecting at least an 80% drop in prices.

The 1st article mentions a 32% drop........only 8% to go and we're at the Half way mark!

Where are all the Bulls now?
Karratha boomed ya silly then dropped back. Perth never boomed in fact the opposite occurred.

Foxbat is a really bad financial adviser he has lost poor Peter a fortune on his good Mount Lawley unit. He cannot tell the difference between a small town which boomed for a few years and a huge city of over 2m people which has been stagnant for almost a decade.

He is as bad as Veritas with his daft comparisons between Perth and Dublin.

Foxbat is the classic doomster who extrapolates a downturn to zero from a few years of bad times and ignores the longer term reality. Iron ore prices will grow again, of course they will, global construction levels are at all time lows, this will not stay like this forever. Iron ore prices will even boom again and bust again.

Do you seriously think the huge iron ore and oil investors are totally stupid? Do you think India, China and the Eastern nations have stopped growing in wealth and will never invest in infrastructure again? What about the one trillion European infrastructure spend? - Foxbat conveniently forgot all about that. He believes the US will remain in the construction doldrums forever etc etc.



Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

skamy
26 Nov 2015, 11:47 AM
Karratha boomed ya silly then dropped back. Perth never boomed in fact the opposite occurred.

Foxbat is a really bad financial adviser he has lost poor Peter a fortune on his good Mount Lawley unit. He cannot tell the difference between a small town which boomed for a few years and a huge city of over 2m people which has been stagnant for almost a decade.

He is as bad as Veritas with his daft comparisons between Perth and Dublin.

Foxbat is the classic doomster who extrapolates a downturn to zero from a few years of bad times and ignores the longer term reality. Iron ore prices will grow again, of course they will, global construction levels are at all time lows, this will not stay like this forever. Iron ore prices will even boom again and bust again.

Do you seriously think the huge iron ore and oil investors are totally stupid? Do you think India, China and the Eastern nations have stopped growing in wealth and will never invest in infrastructure again? What about the one trillion European infrastructure spend? - Foxbat conveniently forgot all about that. He believes the US will remain in the construction doldrums forever etc etc.


I am not a financial advisor, Foxbat, i have never stated that i am,
Please correct that statement Skamy.

Peter

Perth never boomed?? Skamy you are one interesting person.

Again Skamy, i have bought 9 properties in the last 3 years and sold 3.

If that makes me a "doomster" well i just can not see how.

Maybe you should contact Perth Now and express your concerns???


Prestige Perth house prices plunge by up to 30 per cent

http://www.perthnow.com.au/realestate/news/perth-wa/prestige-perth-house-prices-plunge-by-up-to-30-per-cent/news-story/da43bc1cd034231cfd72605f8d055b2d

Perhaps you could get a reporter to do a story on "your" Perth market, they may even put a chart in it for you..

Oh Skamy could you let me know how much you land tax has gone up :oo:




Edited by Foxy, 26 Nov 2015, 01:18 PM.
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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skamy
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foxbat
26 Nov 2015, 01:06 PM
I am not a financial advisor, Foxbat, i have never stated that i am,
Please correct that statement Skamy.

Peter

Perth never boomed?? Skamy you are one interesting person.

Again Skamy, i have bought 9 properties in the last 3 years and sold 3.

If that makes me a "doomster" well i just can not see how.

Maybe you should contact Perth Now and express your concerns???


Prestige Perth house prices plunge by up to 30 per cent

http://www.perthnow.com.au/realestate/news/perth-wa/prestige-perth-house-prices-plunge-by-up-to-30-per-cent/news-story/da43bc1cd034231cfd72605f8d055b2d

Perhaps you could get a reporter to do a story on "your" Perth market, they may even put a chart in it for you..

Oh Skamy could you let me know how much you land tax has gone up :oo:



Peter, I am just saying Foxbat is not so good when it come to financial advice.

I note that you are still referring to the dodgy Perth news article which claims a 30% drop for Mosman park which was completely false - go check it out - the actual drop is just a few %. I posted links on the thread.

There has been no boom in Perth for over 9 years Peter. There was a boom in Karratha and that boom was unsustainable post the CAPEX spending. It is just ridiculous to compare the drop in a boomtown with the stagnation experienced in the Perth property during the same time.

Why don't you sell your expensive property in Perth ? I know why - because you are not going to sell into this poor market. I won't be selling, Blondie wont be selling Mike wont be selling, Mathew wont be selling -this is how most people in Perth will behave.

Yet, Foxbat tells you that somehow everybody is going to start selling their homes en mass with ridiculous losses of up to 40% - it is nonsense absolute nonsense.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Elastic
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You don't need everybody selling their homes for prices to fall.
The market is whoever is selling, and if only the desperate are selling, and the vultures are buying, price falls happen.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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