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Foxbats new prediction; House prices and all assets to come under pressure
Topic Started: 25 Nov 2015, 06:17 PM (59,396 Views)
skamy
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foxbat
14 Dec 2015, 11:09 AM
Checked the price of BHP RIO WOW FMG lately Skamy.

How long do you think your dog and pony show will go on with no hay or dog bones??

It's over Skamey.

Peter
So you keep saying Peter - everything is always going to end in tears according to old Foxbat - but it never really does does it Peter.

Dump the doomsters and the MB and zero hedge weep-me-a -valley-of-tears-blogs/"news"(spews) outlets and get your head back in the real world -

Perth is not crashing anytime soon Foxbat is still waiting for his crash that is still just around yet another corner.
foxbat
18 Dec 2015, 08:05 PM
In a nut shell credit squeeze is coming.
Peter
The credit squeeze started almost a decade ago where on earth have you been hiding out. Credit has been easing for a few years now with less deposits required and very competitive interest rates. Interest rates will begin rising next year as soon as the RBA is confident in the economy.

You gotta feel it for the Perth bears missing out on this time of cheap money to chase a price drop that never ever happened.
Edited by skamy, 19 Dec 2015, 12:16 AM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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newjez
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Strindberg
14 Dec 2015, 01:53 PM
Yes, it is the result of buyers and sellers agreeing to conclude transactions at higher prices than 3 months ago for similarly located and appointed properties. It's the system we have in this country where the buyers and sellers freely make agreements.
So, with car sales, if a load of Hyundai's get sold, the price of cars is falling, and if a load of Mercedes get sold, the price of cars is rising?

Good to know.

But when there's a load of Hyundai's selling, it doesn't mean I'll get a cheap Mercedes.

However, if the total volume of sales collapses, if I keep my eyes open, there might be a sale on somewhere.

I think you are confusing medians and prices again.

http://www.perthnow.com.au/realestate/news/perth-wa/real-estate-wrap-perth-leads-nation-for-falling-house-prices-in-2015/news-story/a353c9153825fd79d32168a3b202ffdb
Edited by newjez, 19 Dec 2015, 07:29 AM.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

newjez
19 Dec 2015, 04:09 AM
So, with car sales, if a load of Hyundai's get sold, the price of cars is falling, and if a load of Mercedes get sold, the price of cars is rising?

Good to know.

But when there's a load of Hyundai's selling, it doesn't mean I'll get a cheap Mercedes.

However, if the total volume of sales collapses, if I keep my eyes open, there might be a sale on somewhere.

I think you are confusing medians and prices again.

http://www.perthnow.com.au/realestate/news/perth-wa/real-estate-wrap-perth-leads-nation-for-falling-house-prices-in-2015/news-story/a353c9153825fd79d32168a3b202ffdb
Just think of this.
The demand signal is dropping.
Supply of everything is rising.
What do you think will happen???
Just look at BHP RIO WOW FMG et.Al.
The price of oil, iron ore and practicaly all industrial commodities.
Do you think your pile of mud and sticks is impervious to the market forces???

I don't think so.

But good luck.
Tick tock.
Peter
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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Strindberg
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newjez
19 Dec 2015, 04:09 AM
So, with car sales, if a load of Hyundai's get sold, the price of cars is falling, and if a load of Mercedes get sold, the price of cars is rising?

Good to know.
Perfect illustration of the unconscious directional bias in a bear.

That argument of yours could equally be adopted by bulls in reverse to question and reject all house price falls and say they are rises. But they don't do that. Bulls don't spend mindless effort postulating why the data is wrong when prices are shown to have fallen. They accept data and price falls as real.

On the other hand jerks like yourself spend time dreaming up irrational excuses for why house price rises are really falls. There's one of your excuses above. The other day your excuse, with no evidence, was that that prices in Perth are always shown as wrongly rising in the pre-Xmas period. Another gormless bear, hidflect, this morning suggested that house price rises are not rises at all and they represent "a massive loss" due to redecorating etc.

....and

PERTH house prices rose again.

RP Data daily index today: 607.72

UP 1.40% QTR on QTR

UP 2.4% for DECEMBER so far.


Funny how there was so much glee with the October RP Data figure (and zilch questioning) and yet the only comment on the December figure (and latest qtr on qtr figure) is that they are "noise".

Funny how 3 month figures are now "noise" and only the 12 month figure can show the trend.

As I posted elsewhere, Veritas has revealed that he reckons that in the following 12 month chart the trend is DOWN 'cus it ends lower than it starts. I suggest he keeps well clear of playing the markets, any markets, applying that view.

Posted Image
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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newjez
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Strindberg
19 Dec 2015, 04:04 PM
Perfect illustration of the unconscious directional bias in a bear.

That argument of yours could equally be adopted by bulls in reverse to question and reject all house price falls and say they are rises. But they don't do that. Bulls don't spend mindless effort postulating why the data is wrong when prices are shown to have fallen. They accept data and price falls as real.

On the other hand jerks like yourself spend time dreaming up irrational excuses for why house price rises are really falls. There's one of your excuses above. The other day your excuse, with no evidence, was that that prices in Perth are always shown as wrongly rising in the pre-Xmas period. Another gormless bear, hidflect, this morning suggested that house price rises are not rises at all and they represent "a massive loss" due to redecorating etc.

....and

PERTH house prices rose again.

RP Data daily index today: 607.72

UP 1.40% QTR on QTR

UP 2.4% for DECEMBER so far.


Funny how there was so much glee with the October RP Data figure (and zilch questioning) and yet the only comment on the December figure (and latest qtr on qtr figure) is that they are "noise".

Funny how 3 month figures are now "noise" and only the 12 month figure can show the trend.

As I posted elsewhere, Veritas has revealed that he reckons that in the following 12 month chart the trend is DOWN 'cus it ends lower than it starts. I suggest he keeps well clear of playing the markets, any markets, applying that view.

Posted Image
I think the bias is yours.

I wasn't preparing a bull or a bear case. I was just telling as it is. Reading an index without consideration of other factors, will tell you how that index has moved. Nothing more, nothing less.

When you say rp index has shown houses have fallen or gained x%, you are wrong. All that has happened is the index has changed. It may relate to house prices, or it may not.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

newjez
20 Dec 2015, 09:30 AM
I think the bias is yours.

I wasn't preparing a bull or a bear case. I was just telling as it is. Reading an index without consideration of other factors, will tell you how that index has moved. Nothing more, nothing less.

When you say rp index has shown houses have fallen or gained x%, you are wrong. All that has happened is the index has changed. It may relate to house prices, or it may not.
Well spotted, the bull can only see prices rising.
So he tricked himself.
Very interesting.
Peter
Maybe the banks can see something different


http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/wa-tops-national-mortgage-default-list-according-to-reserve-bank-20151217-glqclf.html
Edited by Foxy, 20 Dec 2015, 03:25 PM.
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Rufus
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foxbat
20 Dec 2015, 03:24 PM
Well spotted, the bull can only see prices rising.
So he tricked himself.
Very interesting.
Peter
Maybe the banks can see something different


http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/wa-tops-national-mortgage-default-list-according-to-reserve-bank-20151217-glqclf.html
God help us.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

Rufus
20 Dec 2015, 05:03 PM
God help us.
Yes god has made trees, for the dumb dumbs to smack their heads on.

Peter
Nominal, real = 10%

Stand by for one hell of an arse reaming....

In U.S. dollars terms 60%, after all it is the reserve currency...

http://www.perthnow.com.au/realestate/news/perth-wa/real-estate-wrap-perth-leads-nation-for-falling-house-prices-in-2015/news-story/a353c9153825fd79d32168a3b202ffdb
ream those arseholes out boys, it's your turn now...

Peter

http://www.skynews.com.au/business/business/market/2015/12/18/perth-house-prices-down-almost-10-.html
Edited by Foxy, 20 Dec 2015, 09:19 PM.
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

Hmmmmmm


http://www.afr.com/real-estate/satterley-offloads-third-property-in-subdued-perth-20151218-glr0i6
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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Veritas
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Quote:
 
As I posted elsewhere, Veritas has revealed that he reckons that in the following 12 month chart the trend is DOWN 'cus it ends lower than it starts. I suggest he keeps well clear of playing the markets, any markets, applying that view.


Actually Strindeberg I totally ignored your chart.

Just another example of you arguing semantics.

What I said was that Perth prices are trending down.

Which they are.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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