Yep, If govt stands back long enough, I reckon they could nationalise a lot of things like mines, and distressed banks etc, at a few cents in the dollar.
It's time for the handouts and favours to end.
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE! Share a cot with Milton?
Yep, If govt stands back long enough, I reckon they could nationalise a lot of things like mines, and distressed banks etc, at a few cents in the dollar.
Basically i see a systemic reduction, a classic musical chairs scenario. Where there is a slow and steady decline in money in the system for most people. Then the stupids will not be able to spend money they do not have and over time they will simply not be able to participate in the endless stupidity that got them there in the first place, they will then wither and die.
To be replaced by frugal hard working people that will shovel the stupids into graves.
Peter
foxbat
6 Dec 2015, 04:48 PM
Basically i see a systemic reduction, a classic musical chairs scenario. Where there is a slow and steady decline in money in the system for most people. Then the stupids will not be able to spend money they do not have and over time they will simply not be able to participate in the endless stupidity that got them there in the first place, they will then wither and die.
To be replaced by frugal hard working people that will shovel the stupids into graves.
Peter
If you want a visualisation imagine a big fat dinosaur that wakes up in the desert.
Mr Palmer, Bellyup??? Tick tock. Dominoes falling into place. How much is that house worth tick tock??? Peter
foxbat
8 Dec 2015, 10:14 AM
Mr Palmer, Bellyup??? Tick tock. Dominoes falling into place. How much is that house worth tick tock??? Peter
The post mining boom economy is coming. The easy loose money is gone. Ask yourself one question. Is my house really worth the price it is at?? Peter If BHP drops from $50 to $17 over 10 years, what is the "real" drop, in real terms?? If BHP is Australia what does that say about Australia?? All that lost capital. RIO??? How much capital has been lost from the balance sheets of Australians in the last 12 months??
That is like port Hedland and Karratha price drops delivered right to your door.
Yep, If govt stands back long enough, I reckon they could nationalise a lot of things like mines, and distressed banks etc, at a few cents in the dollar.
It's time for the handouts and favours to end.
Banks maybe. The mines are fucked.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
What are you wittering on about now Strindberg? When did I say that the factors listed above do not contribute to household formation. My basic point is that less adults moving to the State results in less demand for housing. Do you disagree?
Strindberg if I moved to Melbourne tomorrow there would be a drop in demand seeing as I am no longer spending money in the Perth economy. Unless someone takes my place (assuming people spend roughly the same amount) there is a drop in demand. This is not hard.
Look at the graph you posted only Victoria is now growing faster than WA.
WA is growing faster than any other state and here you are thinking that is bad news. The truth is WA grew hugely over the past decade and it is still growing at a rate of knots yet house prices have stayed stagnant throughout that time.
The Veritas is a good news story for property not a bad news story.
You are just one of the thousands of lemmings sitting around awaiting a crash or listening to the MSN scaremongers who have kept Perth property prices stagnant for almost a decade.
You missed the bottom in 2012 and you could have saved yourself 3 years of rent and finished your home loan 3 years earlier, if you had any sense in your head. Do you think these low interest rates will last forever?
You will turn into an embittered old bear renting in the boondocks complaining that the world was set against you. Yet it was you and you alone who failed to take opportunities that were available to you. Look at poor Mr Frum is you need an example of what missing the boat looks like.
hidflect
2 Dec 2015, 08:22 PM
I notice you're very careful to avoid saying rents will increase because of the growth in any demand from people moving here. And you're right to do so. It's not the absolute number coming here but their individual capacity to pay. With all the high=pay jobs evaporating, if no one can afford more than $400/week then that's your rent ceiling. Sure, it could have a bit of the LA effect where people are doubling and tripling up in houses with 5-8 cars on the lawn but then why move here? The rest of the high costs involved make it prohibitive. The yield for the owner of the house I'm renting is 3.5% GROSS. And there's been plenty of repairs let alone the govt. fees. The only reason it makes sense for them is they bought it 12 years ago at third of its current "value". So their estimation of the price ($700+K) is unrealisable. No new investor will buy this place to get almost null return. Which means the price has to drop at least 25%. Or more as the rent drops.
You are assuming that the owner would be stupid enough to sell his investment just because he is seeing a drop in yields. The owner made a motza renting during the investment boom and they know that the good times will return, they always do.
This is the big mistake the bears make - they do not even ask themselves what they would do if they were in the landlords shoes.
Instead they fall for fools selling them gold so that they push up gold prices for the big folk during an economic downturn.
Every penny you pay to your landlord is covering repairs and renos ready for the next upturn. Meanwhile you waste money that could be paying down a mortgage at record low interest rates.
I just do not get the idiocy of the bear lemmings.
https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/30248374/dvg-cuts-jobs-as-car-sales-slide/Remember any house bought on credit only. Has to drop by the amount of the deposit and the owner suffers a 100% loss if he is forced to sell. A $1m house with a $100,000 deposit only has to drop be 10% to wipe outtheowner. A 30% drop would claim a lot of victims. Peter
But that is just not happening is it Peter despite your years of dooming and glooming on APF. Number of house sales are increasing again Peter as is mortgage activity - there will be no crash. Glen Stevens was in town last week and he is upbeat about WA.
You sit in a gloomy place reading the angry blogs and the "we hate the world" news sources. Get out in the sunshine and take a look at the city we live in and you will see why people are still coming in huge numbers despite the slowdown in the investment boom.
Perth prices are not going to crash Peter.
foxbat
5 Dec 2015, 12:37 AM
What about all that money that just disappeared, how many billion in capitalization has BHP, RIO and FMG and Atlas Iron lost??
That money belonged to some people, they are a whole lot poorer today??
Peter Just tell the stumbles to shut the mines. Peter
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
WA is growing faster than any other state and here you are thinking that is bad news. The truth is WA grew hugely over the past decade and it is still growing at a rate of knots yet house prices have stayed stagnant throughout that time.
If its growing a rate of knots where are all these people living?
Why are there more rental properties on the market now than ever before?
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
If its growing a rate of knots where are all these people living?
Why are there more rental properties on the market now than ever before?
Well this is the question Veritas is it not?
How could you possibly believe in a crash in a State with a growth of 3.5% unemployment of 6% and population growth? Use your head - do your own thinking- drop the doomsters they will impoverish and embitter you.
That growth is going to show up in the market at some stage, it always has before - you are gambling on the very very low odds outcome that the market will not return to normal at some stage. (ie revert to mean)
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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