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Has The Penny Dropped Yet?; It Must Have
Topic Started: 15 Oct 2015, 06:31 AM (2,818 Views)
Jimbo
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Here we are, in the 7th year of a global recovery, and where exactly are we?

Global trade nosediving, currency devaluation, lowest interest rates in history, mammoth debt.

The "everything is fixed" interest rate rises that were supposed to happen every month for the last year, have failed to materialise yet again.

Do we believe that rates will go up next month? The month after? Next year? The year after?

Ever played a penny falls?

You put in a penny and dislodge a whole heap of pennies hanging over the ledge. Instant profit, anyone can do it.

But any fool knows that you can't get more out than you put in. If you get more, someone else gets less (or loses).

I assume so anyway?

Has the penny dropped yet?
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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stinkbug
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Australia never had a huge crash (during the GFC), never went into recession (since the early 90s), growth slowed down. We muddled through. And we'll continue to muddle through for the next few years, I suspect.

We're far from perfect, of course, but also far from screwed.
Edited by stinkbug, 15 Oct 2015, 06:38 AM.
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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provocateur
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stinkbug
15 Oct 2015, 06:37 AM
Australia never had a huge crash (during the GFC), never went into recession (since the early 90s), growth slowed down. We muddled through. And we'll continue to muddle through for the next few years, I suspect.

We're far from perfect, of course, but also far from screwed.
I disagree. It's been 20-plus years since the last recession. The imbalances are palpable and policy has exacerbated the potential downside. We're in more trouble than a lot of other countries - for the next few years, anyway.

The penny is going to drop in Australia before it drops on a global scale.
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Jimbo
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provocateur
15 Oct 2015, 06:56 AM
I disagree. It's been 20-plus years since the last recession. The imbalances are palpable and policy has exacerbated the potential downside. We're in more trouble than a lot of other countries - for the next few years, anyway.

The penny is going to drop in Australia before it drops on a global scale.
The average Australian has no concept of recession and they are ill prepared for it.

When you live in a country where the younger generation expect to own three investment properties by aged 30 and retire at 40 on the profits and travel the world 1st class, riding a pushbike to work for minimum wage is not going to sit well.

Welcome to the real world, Australia.

stinkbug
15 Oct 2015, 06:37 AM
Australia never had a huge crash (during the GFC), never went into recession (since the early 90s), growth slowed down. We muddled through. And we'll continue to muddle through for the next few years, I suspect.

Muddled through because we had shit that the rest of the world wanted and were prepared to pay a lot of money for.

Have you seen commodities prices recently?
Edited by Jimbo, 15 Oct 2015, 07:13 AM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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John Frum
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Jimbo
15 Oct 2015, 07:10 AM
The average Australian has no concept of recession and they are ill prepared for it.

When you live in a country where the younger generation expect to own three investment properties by aged 30 and retire at 40 on the profits and travel the world 1st class, riding a pushbike to work for minimum wage is not going to sit well.

Welcome to the real world, Australia.


Muddled through because we had shit that the rest of the world wanted and were prepared to pay a lot of money for.

Have you seen commodities prices recently?

There's a 30 year old bloke I currently work with who bought a family home in Sydney in 2011 with a 50k deposit. He's made around 300k in capital gains since then. Not surprisingly, he's going gangbusters for property and considering a couple of I.Ps

How on earth do you think the penny is going to drop on someone like that? From a guy like me, almost 10 years his senior, who was too slow to get off his backside and buy back then and missed out? He's just going to think that I'm jealous and spiteful (which, being human, I am to a mild extent).

And to be frank, I think 30 year old me in exactly the same situation would be doing exactly the same thing.

The penny isn't going to drop. It'll be side-on with a freight train when it comes.


"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness.
"Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
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newjez
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John Frum
15 Oct 2015, 07:36 AM

There's a 30 year old bloke I currently work with who bought a family home in Sydney in 2011 with a 50k deposit. He's made around 300k in capital gains since then. Not surprisingly, he's going gangbusters for property and considering a couple of I.Ps

How on earth do you think the penny is going to drop on someone like that? From a guy like me, almost 10 years his senior, who was too slow to get off his backside and buy back then and missed out? He's just going to think that I'm jealous and spiteful (which, being human, I am to a mild extent).

And to be frank, I think 30 year old me in exactly the same situation would be doing exactly the same thing.

The penny isn't going to drop. It'll be side-on with a freight train when it comes.

Why didn't you buy property John? You knew it was going up?
Jimbo
15 Oct 2015, 06:31 AM
Here we are, in the 7th year of a global recovery, and where exactly are we?

Global trade nosediving, currency devaluation, lowest interest rates in history, mammoth debt.

The "everything is fixed" interest rate rises that were supposed to happen every month for the last year, have failed to materialise yet again.

Do we believe that rates will go up next month? The month after? Next year? The year after?

Ever played a penny falls?

You put in a penny and dislodge a whole heap of pennies hanging over the ledge. Instant profit, anyone can do it.

But any fool knows that you can't get more out than you put in. If you get more, someone else gets less (or loses).

I assume so anyway?

Has the penny dropped yet?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/11930506/UK-unemployment-jobs-recovery-seven-year-low.html


But I worry about the rest of the world. You can't play monopoly by yourself.
Edited by newjez, 15 Oct 2015, 07:44 AM.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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And gold heading north fast now the fed lies are becoming undone.

We could move forward from the great depression, but how do we move forward this time ? With debt in property and stocks and motorcars much higher than the great depression, lvrs 100% plus into both, and an abundance of dirt cheap asain labour making everything we ONCE used to for a MERE fraction of the cost, how can you POSSIBLY compete ? Did I mention computerised automation ?

How do you raise rates after nine years when your economy is a mere shadow of what it once was ? This would mean higher housing and buisiness costs if rates were to rise. They cant afford it now, how could they afford more ?

Out of cycle rate rises for investors and owner occupieds recently, combined with 20% required deposit asnproperty literally floods onto the market.

Would appear prices and rents are now falling in ALL capitals, if not they will be soon, and with the lowest rates in history.

Get used to the future, there is no way forward like there was coming out of the last great depression.

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Ex BP Golly
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provocateur
15 Oct 2015, 06:56 AM

The penny is going to drop in Australia before it drops on a global scale.
Pennies dropping?

This is a housing forum isn't it?


newjez
15 Oct 2015, 07:41 AM
Why didn't you buy property John? You knew it was going up?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/11930506/UK-unemployment-jobs-recovery-seven-year-low.html


But I worry about the rest of the world. You can't play monopoly by yourself.
I love that url.

Unemployment Jobs recovery 7 year low!

You don't even have to read the article lol.
Edited by Ex BP Golly, 15 Oct 2015, 08:28 AM.
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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Jimbo
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John Frum
15 Oct 2015, 07:36 AM
I think 30 year old me in exactly the same situation would be doing exactly the same thing.
30 year old me did do the same thing. 30 year old me bought into the UK late 80's bubble and got arse reamed as a result.

You only let yourself get arse reamed once and you learn to recognise when it is going to happen again.

And being a concerned citizen, I have been pointing out the bloody obvious approach of a large arse reaming device for the last 15 months.

Grab the KY lads, you are going to need a tonne of it.



Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Ex BP Golly
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Jimbo
15 Oct 2015, 08:25 AM
30 year old me did do the same thing. 30 year old me bought into the UK late 80's bubble and got arse reamed as a result.

You only let yourself get arse reamed once and you learn to recognise when it is going to happen again.

And being a concerned citizen, I have been pointing out the bloody obvious approach of a large arse reaming device for the last 15 months.

Grab the KY lads, you are going to need a tonne of it.


Do you recommend K.Y Jelly shares as a possible hedge to short the housing market?
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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