I know exactly what happened to BP. I was there as the last admin and Dan made a decision that there was no need to continue. So it stopped. Simple as that.
Dan was a kind man - In some ways at least.
I can accept that he just might have said that to you to shelter you from feeling/knowing you were a total screw-up.
(With me NOT being as kind as Dan Cox pretty obviously.)
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer:"negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
Have to feel a bit sorry for the long term Sydney bears and especially their partners. Imagine the shit their partners are now giving them. Their partners constantly had to listen to all the promises of the "inevitable and cannot be avoided crash" preached to themselves and spouted at friends and family gatherings. For the female partners it is not just about the monetary costs from not buying in 2000/2003/2005/2008/2011, but the lost years of establishing a family in their own home adapted to their own tastes and wishes.
You sound like you just stepped off the ark. My wife knows the UK property market much better than I do.
I have friends who are property developers. She picks the houses and does the figures. He does the donkey work. Times have moved on a bit since the sixties. Women are allowed to take an active role in partnerships nowadays. I wouldn't let my wifevgo on here though. This place is a rugby club
Have to feel a bit sorry for the long term Sydney bears and especially their partners. Imagine the shit their partners are now giving them. Their partners constantly had to listen to all the promises of the "inevitable and cannot be avoided crash" preached to themselves and spouted at friends and family gatherings. For the female partners it is not just about the monetary costs from not buying in 2000/2003/2005/2008/2011, but the lost years of establishing a family in their own home adapted to their own tastes and wishes.
I feel for them also.
At least they had a few years to get into the market.
Gold coast pretty much followed the bear wet dream... even people like us who owned our ppor pretty much outright would hafe been wiser to rent rather than buy... no matter, it suited us and the surge is certainly on now.
Brisbane was a mix... long flat period with a recent surge and more to come i suspect.
FNQ (Townsville) had a good run up in prices but took a hit as well...newman era seemed to hurt some areas worse than others...
At least they had a few years to get into the market.
Gold coast pretty much followed the bear wet dream... even people like us who owned our ppor pretty much outright would hafe been wiser to rent rather than buy... no matter, it suited us and the surge is certainly on now.
Brisbane was a mix... long flat period with a recent surge and more to come i suspect.
FNQ (Townsville) had a good run up in prices but took a hit as well...newman era seemed to hurt some areas worse than others...
But in the long term none of that matters. In 10 years time all of those areas will be higher priced than now.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
But in the long term none of that matters. In 10 years time all of those areas will be higher priced than now.
In current dollar terms, almost certainly. But in real dollar terms, the 10-year-tale is yet to be told for QLD.
- Gold Coast is bound to recover something, if only because it's been thoroughly smashed already, and has upsides both as a mass-market tourist destination, and as Brisbane's (rather distant) commuter hinterland.
- FNQ may seem to have yet more tourist-industry upside, but the IP unit market throughout FNQ has been smashed not just by the recent tourism bust, but more profoundly by a rocketing insurance premium crisis for storm coverage. (It is not unusual for 25-40% of gross rental income to be chewed up by insurance cover, for coastal or near-coastal units.)
- The main question-mark is Brisbane itself. It's coming off a resource-boom-at-one-remove, i.e. as a home for FIFO workers, and white-collar office wages for sundry NG and coal projects, all of which are shedding head-count at the moment. It's had some episodic upside from film production, and video-game production, albeit not at even remotely stable FTE headcounts. And QLD as a whole has yet to recover its status as a magnet for interstate migration.
Put another way, it's hard to identify some new massive and incontrovertible "driver" for the SEQ economy, particularly not one that would justify Sydney-like waves of RE value-appreciation across places like Logan or Burpengary.
- So the prospect of Brisbane-area growth roughly tracking, or mildly lagging, national growth, will make sense for a long while yet--as indeed it has already while SYD and MEL have taken off.
Irrelevant and you know it, yet continue to piss into your own face and tell yourself it's lemonade!
You're irrelevant Timmy.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Problem is current economics focuses on inflation of widget items that can be mass produced and increased with more money printing while ignoring inflating housing costs. The money supply increases at around 10% per year with the majority going into housing inflating the prices. Back in the 2000's everyone realised property always goes up, some people went onto the internet and discovered property was in a bubble and decided to wait it out. Well 15 years later the bubble has not burst and the government is doing everything it can to keep it inflated with a fail safe option if property does not keep increasing in price, they will nuke Sydney.
Seriously they are not going to nuke Sydney, just buy.
In current dollar terms, almost certainly. But in real dollar terms, the 10-year-tale is yet to be told for QLD.
- Gold Coast is bound to recover something, if only because it's been thoroughly smashed already, and has upsides both as a mass-market tourist destination, and as Brisbane's (rather distant) commuter hinterland.
- FNQ may seem to have yet more tourist-industry upside, but the IP unit market throughout FNQ has been smashed not just by the recent tourism bust, but more profoundly by a rocketing insurance premium crisis for storm coverage. (It is not unusual for 25-40% of gross rental income to be chewed up by insurance cover, for coastal or near-coastal units.)
- The main question-mark is Brisbane itself. It's coming off a resource-boom-at-one-remove, i.e. as a home for FIFO workers, and white-collar office wages for sundry NG and coal projects, all of which are shedding head-count at the moment. It's had some episodic upside from film production, and video-game production, albeit not at even remotely stable FTE headcounts. And QLD as a whole has yet to recover its status as a magnet for interstate migration.
Put another way, it's hard to identify some new massive and incontrovertible "driver" for the SEQ economy, particularly not one that would justify Sydney-like waves of RE value-appreciation across places like Logan or Burpengary.
- So the prospect of Brisbane-area growth roughly tracking, or mildly lagging, national growth, will make sense for a long while yet--as indeed it has already while SYD and MEL have taken off.
Brisbane experienced rapid price growth about 10 years ago when our median house price was roughly the same as Melbourne, which clearly couldn't last. We have probably come back to a little lower than where we should be, but ample supply is keeping the prices in check. I think that apartments will struggle to see any growth but detached homes in the 15K to the CBD limits will do OK with gains of about 7% over the next 12 months.
Buying on the GC was a no brainer yet few did even though they knew prices had crashed by 80% in some extreme cases.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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