I rarely read Macrobusiness any more, but I popped over there this evening for a look.
The mood has really changed.
A year ago they sounded very confident, convinced 'The Bubble' will pop very soon based on macroprudential, crackdown on foreign buyers etc.
But now they seem resigned to continued house price growth. Some of the old bears there are saying it could run for another ten years.
Many are talking about leaving the country. Their confidence has totally evaporated.
Is it the same for bears here on APF?
I wonder how long it took for you to log on all those socks and write such tripe, it seems once you downed bubblepedia you got a taste for it. It's becoming a nasty little habit grey man.
I have never met a 'bear' that talks like this or shares the same views as these 'posters'. Like you're Moops sock you are forever trying to make people who cannot, or chose not to buy as irrational, ignorant and simple.
I wonder how long it took for you to log on all those socks and write such tripe, it seems once you downed bubblepedia you got a taste for it. It's becoming a nasty little habit grey man.
I have never met a 'bear' that talks like this or shares the same views as these 'posters'. Like you're Moops sock you are forever trying to make people who cannot, or chose not to buy as irrational, ignorant and simple.
You are a sad sad life form, you really are.
Paranoid much???
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
I wonder how long it took for you to log on all those socks and write such tripe, it seems once you downed bubblepedia you got a taste for it. It's becoming a nasty little habit grey man.
I have never met a 'bear' that talks like this or shares the same views as these 'posters'. Like you're Moops sock you are forever trying to make people who cannot, or chose not to buy as irrational, ignorant and simple.
What's that supposed to mean? You think Revert2Mean is my sock puppet?
I know exactly what happened to BP. I was there as the last admin and Dan made a decision that there was no need to continue. So it stopped. Simple as that.
Yes - those finance numbers look very bullish. I thought it was over a few months ago when the numbers dipped, but now I don't think so. Probably what happening is Sydney might slow a bit in price growth as volume picks up, but other cities might be starting to take off.
IMHO it's busier now than before. All of the lenders that I deal with are stressed and running behind due to the volumes. I can't see that easing until Xmas when it traditionally drops off until February.
October and November figures will be even better.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
If I was a Sydney bear I'd be near suicidal by now. Surprised if moops hasn't taken a contract out on his parents.
Have to feel a bit sorry for the long term Sydney bears and especially their partners. Imagine the shit their partners are now giving them. Their partners constantly had to listen to all the promises of the "inevitable and cannot be avoided crash" preached to themselves and spouted at friends and family gatherings. For the female partners it is not just about the monetary costs from not buying in 2000/2003/2005/2008/2011, but the lost years of establishing a family in their own home adapted to their own tastes and wishes.
Have to feel a bit sorry for the long term Sydney bears and especially their partners. Imagine the shit their partners are now giving them. Their partners constantly had to listen to all the promises of the "inevitable and cannot be avoided crash" preached to themselves and spouted at friends and family gatherings. For the female partners it is not just about the monetary costs from not buying in 2000/2003/2005/2008/2011, but the lost years of establishing a family in their own home adapted to their own tastes and wishes.
You love that little fantasy don't you Stringy?
How do you know its not wives being bearish?
Also, how many 1 million dollar standard suburban Sydney homes will you be going into hoc for this year?
How sensible do you think it is for someone to owe a bank north of 700k?
Underlying the micro is a macro picture which shows Australia households levered up to the gills in mortgage debt.
And yet you take it as a an article of faith that that is hunky dory.
House price are up because people are borrowing (and being allowed to borrow) much more to get into the market. Do you think that is sensible economic policy? Smacks of a credit bubble to me.
We know why don't we? Powerful and deeply entrenched vested interests including State and Federal Governments that know that any hit to housing could take down the economy.
What a fuck up.
Quote:
First home buyers in NSW are loading up on nearly 25 per cent more debt than they were when the Reserve Bank began cutting official interest rates, as buyers scramble to get a foot in the door as house prices soar. They are, on average, borrowing $68,400 more today than they were three and a half years ago, when RBA governor Glenn Stevens kicked off the round of interest rate cuts that have put a rocket under house prices.
The average new loan for a first home buyer has risen 23 per cent over this period to $362,000, significantly outpacing growth in wages, as buyers across the board take out bigger loans in response to very cheap debt. Overall, the average loan size in NSW has jumped by 18 per cent since late 2011, to $384,500, Bureau of Statistics figures showed this week.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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