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Mood on Macrobusiness has changed - a lot less confidence, the bears sound resigned and despondent; Are the bears here feeling the same way?
Topic Started: 9 Oct 2015, 08:20 PM (4,562 Views)
Rastus2
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Trollie
9 Oct 2015, 08:55 PM

Was it too complex for you, do I need to break things down for you a bit more?
Unlike yourself, i am not fluent in baby trash talk.... as i said, if you have something you wish to say, get mummy to type it out for you next time... the adults are unable to understand your keyboard mashing..
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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herbie
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Rastus2
9 Oct 2015, 08:41 PM
If you right, it does not bode well for the boom...

Have to say, i hafe not talked to anyone for ages in the real world who is bearish on property... a few young guys at work just bought, usually a good sign the gold coast bull has almost done, but i suspect the commonwealth gams might push us along for a 0bit longer...

I thought this bull market had far stronger legs than that.
Us Brisbane bears have had a reasonable run - IMO - 15% up maybe tops since the start of the GFC until now.

15% in 7 yrs. Definitely nothing to write home to Mother about (if one was a leveraged bull.)

Providing we were whacking cash in bank for that seven yrs (which I was) it was a very nice little respite from the very nasty very strong upward momentum that had been in play from since the start of the noughties.

Personally reckoned that was good enough though - For me anyway - And bought another IP (for cash) a few months back.

At least hedge me bearish bet a bit hey? ... :)

Though they've tickled me up since with talk of neg interest rates - I'll surely not try to pretend I might know what might happen if that shit happens.
Edited by herbie, 9 Oct 2015, 09:35 PM.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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createdby
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Dear Lord, please help the Chinese to save the Australian real estate market. Please ward the Chinese shadow dollar remittance system from the evil prying eyes of the Australian money laundering police. Please Lord, bless the holy ass crack of the 7 extended Chinese family members to slip and smuggle the $1 million worth of bills undetected through customs. Thank you Lord for the Chinese and their powerful wealth. Please blind the customs officer with your bright light whenever they try to pry into the suitcase or ass crack of the Chinese saviors.

Also Lord, please use your holy power to make Australians jittery about the economy to take out a big mortgage? God, please strengthen their faith. Not just in you, but in the resilience of Australian house prices to weather the deflationary headwinds blowing from the EM and commodities collapse. May the Lord strengthen their faith and spirit in house prices continuing increase in the next financial year. If not, at least move sideways for a decade.

Dear Holy Spirit, please shine your holy light upon Glen Stevens brain, that he may see the path to righteousness and cut interest rates. Also, please quicken the spirit of the board members, and CEOs, of the big 4 banks who were tempted by the Devil APRA into stopping speculative investors from buying more property. Dear Holy Spirit, please release APRA from the clutches of the Devil. Please use your power to let banks issue more loans. Please work with Mother Mary and all the saints and angels to bring ZIRP into Australia and subprime loans. Please do all of this Lord until I can sell my property in the next few months. Lord, do this and I promise I will be a good boy. Let me able to sell my property in the next few months or the next year and I promise never to take out a big mortgage again or even a credit card or even a consumer loan. Do this one for me Lord and I promise to be a saver. Forever. And never borrow money again. Amen.
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herbie
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createdby
9 Oct 2015, 10:41 PM
Dear Lord, please help the Chinese to save the Australian real estate market. Please ward the Chinese shadow dollar remittance system from the evil prying eyes of the Australian money laundering police. Please Lord, bless the holy ass crack of the 7 extended Chinese family members to slip and smuggle the $1 million worth of bills undetected through customs. Thank you Lord for the Chinese and their powerful wealth. Please blind the customs officer with your bright light whenever they try to pry into the suitcase or ass crack of the Chinese saviors.

Also Lord, please use your holy power to make Australians jittery about the economy to take out a big mortgage? God, please strengthen their faith. Not just in you, but in the resilience of Australian house prices to weather the deflationary headwinds blowing from the EM and commodities collapse. May the Lord strengthen their faith and spirit in house prices continuing increase in the next financial year. If not, at least move sideways for a decade.

Dear Holy Spirit, please shine your holy light upon Glen Stevens brain, that he may see the path to righteousness and cut interest rates. Also, please quicken the spirit of the board members, and CEOs, of the big 4 banks who were tempted by the Devil APRA into stopping speculative investors from buying more property. Dear Holy Spirit, please release APRA from the clutches of the Devil. Please use your power to let banks issue more loans. Please work with Mother Mary and all the saints and angels to bring ZIRP into Australia and subprime loans. Please do all of this Lord until I can sell my property in the next few months. Lord, do this and I promise I will be a good boy. Let me able to sell my property in the next few months or the next year and I promise never to take out a big mortgage again or even a credit card or even a consumer loan. Do this one for me Lord and I promise to be a saver. Forever. And never borrow money again. Amen.
If overseas money is pouring into the joint, seems ta me it'd be sensible ta say Ta 'n make the most of it - While it continues ta happen at least anyway ...
Edited by herbie, 9 Oct 2015, 11:19 PM.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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deluded
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createdby
9 Oct 2015, 10:41 PM
Dear Lord, please help the Chinese to save the Australian real estate market. Please ward the Chinese shadow dollar remittance system from the evil prying eyes of the Australian money laundering police. Please Lord, bless the holy ass crack of the 7 extended Chinese family members to slip and smuggle the $1 million worth of bills undetected through customs. Thank you Lord for the Chinese and their powerful wealth. Please blind the customs officer with your bright light whenever they try to pry into the suitcase or ass crack of the Chinese saviors.

Also Lord, please use your holy power to make Australians jittery about the economy to take out a big mortgage? God, please strengthen their faith. Not just in you, but in the resilience of Australian house prices to weather the deflationary headwinds blowing from the EM and commodities collapse. May the Lord strengthen their faith and spirit in house prices continuing increase in the next financial year. If not, at least move sideways for a decade.

Dear Holy Spirit, please shine your holy light upon Glen Stevens brain, that he may see the path to righteousness and cut interest rates. Also, please quicken the spirit of the board members, and CEOs, of the big 4 banks who were tempted by the Devil APRA into stopping speculative investors from buying more property. Dear Holy Spirit, please release APRA from the clutches of the Devil. Please use your power to let banks issue more loans. Please work with Mother Mary and all the saints and angels to bring ZIRP into Australia and subprime loans. Please do all of this Lord until I can sell my property in the next few months. Lord, do this and I promise I will be a good boy. Let me able to sell my property in the next few months or the next year and I promise never to take out a big mortgage again or even a credit card or even a consumer loan. Do this one for me Lord and I promise to be a saver. Forever. And never borrow money again. Amen.
Don't crack up on us man!

Entertaining though it is.
Real Trump News -- Real Climate Science News -- Real Democrat Party News
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Hankook
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Of coarse the mood would be changing, it's been around 15 years since prices started to skyrocket and a vocal minority started refusing to buy. Most couples I know who have borrowed around $400,000 around 5 years ago have paid their mortgage down so much the interest each month in under $500 and will be mortgage free in the next 3 years, while their Sydney/Melbourne house price has soared. At the start of the boom it would have been denial, in the middle jealousy, and now acceptance. Yes Perth prices have dropped with the mining boom ending, but at the end of the day most of the bears on APF are not property investors looking to buy in Perth but are young families wanting to buy in Syd/Melb.
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Sydneyite
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Shadow
9 Oct 2015, 08:20 PM
I rarely read Macrobusiness any more, but I popped over there this evening for a look.

The mood has really changed.

A year ago they sounded very confident, convinced 'The Bubble' will pop very soon based on macroprudential, crackdown on foreign buyers etc.

But now they seem resigned to continued house price growth. Some of the old bears there are saying it could run for another ten years.

Many are talking about leaving the country. Their confidence has totally evaporated.

Is it the same for bears here on APF?
Yea I'd stopped reading stuff over there for a while, but had a look as well a couple of weeks back - noticed the same thing! Also noticed there seemed to a lot more bullish commenters/posters, without their posts being deleted etc?

Yes the main bloggers themselves (DLS etc) don't seem to have changed their tune much at all? I think they have made a few bug housing market crash calls again now? :re:
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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Trollie
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Rastus2
9 Oct 2015, 09:10 PM
Unlike yourself, i am not fluent in baby trash talk
Yes you are.
Rastus2
9 Oct 2015, 09:10 PM
get mummy to type it out for you next time
I don't need to turn to mummy to help me when the bad man disagrees with me. Fight your own battles.
John Frum
9 Oct 2015, 09:06 PM
sitting on a low-traffic forum snarling, cursing and mocking those less fortunate?

Surely all you winners have beautiful models to entertain, cocaine to snort, valleys to quad-bike. Why waste your Friday night
That's you frum. Remember how your internet persona is supposed to be rich and us PI's are on the bones of our arse?

Fortunate to be blessed with a brain is what I am. Try using your's frum.
Edited by Trollie, 10 Oct 2015, 10:27 AM.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Sydneyite
10 Oct 2015, 09:37 AM
Yes the main bloggers themselves (DLS etc) don't seem to have changed their tune much at all
Yep, DLS is still calling a 40% crash beginning next year. Always next year.

Considering yesterday's housing finance numbers, I think he's going to be very disappointed again...

Value of dwelling commitments
Posted Image
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Sydneyite
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Shadow
10 Oct 2015, 12:05 PM
Yep, DLS is still calling a 40% crash beginning next year. Always next year.

Considering yesterday's housing finance numbers, I think he's going to be very disappointed again...

Value of dwelling commitments
Posted Image
Yes - those finance numbers look very bullish. I thought it was over a few months ago when the numbers dipped, but now I don't think so. Probably what happening is Sydney might slow a bit in price growth as volume picks up, but other cities might be starting to take off.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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