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RBA Reserve Bank Interest Rate Decision for November 2015?; Pressure is on the RBA to cut rates as commodity bloc sweats
Topic Started: 9 Oct 2015, 04:42 PM (6,318 Views)
John Frum
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Rastus2
4 Nov 2015, 07:27 AM

I disagree.

The RBA was keen to try and show the tail can not wag the dog so their reluctance to let banks force their hand is understandable... none the less, another cut is quite likely if the economy does not show some strength before christmas... in particular as the remaining banks add themselves to the line of rate rises.

I am no fan of rates this low, or lower, however, in a suprise move, but the tail has a firm grip on the dog and is shaking it down and certainly not letting go.
I'm not sure what the problem is here.

The banks are raising mortgage rates out of lock-step with the official cash rate because of increased pressure from APRA to shore up their capital buffers. This is having the effect of cooling the housing market.

The RBA can now cut feeling much more certain that the extra borrowing it encourages will be directed at stuff more likely to drive long term economic growth - business investmemt, jobs, etc etc.

This is the 'macroprudential' behaviour that the bears have been banging on about for the last few years. Why are many of them now complaining about it?
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness.
"Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
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peter fraser
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John Frum
4 Nov 2015, 08:25 AM
I'm not sure what the problem is here.

The banks are raising mortgage rates out of lock-step with the official cash rate because of increased pressure from APRA to shore up their capital buffers. This is having the effect of cooling the housing market.

The RBA can now cut feeling much more certain that the extra borrowing it encourages will be directed at stuff more likely to drive long term economic growth - business investmemt, jobs, etc etc.

This is the 'macroprudential' behaviour that the bears have been banging on about for the last few years. Why are many of them now complaining about it?
We have had macropru for years John. Not sure why DLS and the MB crew have so vigorously denied that. The recent changes have only affected investors, and not all investors. It's the out of cycle rate rises that have cooled the market although it was always going to cool as it reached it's upper limits of affordability.

I don't see an issue either, it's just a short period of adjustment in the market.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Jimbo
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John Frum
4 Nov 2015, 08:25 AM
This is the 'macroprudential' behaviour that the bears have been banging on about for the last few years. Why are many of them now complaining about it?
Macro pru doesn't and can't crash housing markets. Macro pru is fine tuning that can be turned on an off at will.

But fine tuning doesn't work when the underlying electronics is totally fucked.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Ex BP Golly
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stinkbug
4 Nov 2015, 06:38 AM
That's what I thought at the time.

As smeone with a long history here of adding nothing and simply attacking others, it's rather hypocritical of you to even join in a thread like this.

The only thing you get right is that housing prices will go up. Every other call has been wrong, from the decline of China, the trashing of iron ore, and interest rate movements.

The only reason your position on house prices has been right is because a huge number of people like you are irrationally exuberant.

The only person I have ever 'attacked' is Shadow. I know that upsets you greatly.

That makes me happy.

WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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Loki
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stinkbug
4 Nov 2015, 06:38 AM
So you found them, but won't post them. Um... ok.
I've already posted two you pillock! Are you deliberately being dense or does it just come naturally?
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Based on the heat in your posts here, I'm guessing you've tuned up your crystal ball recently?

I'm not what that means.
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How's our crash coming along?
Already in motion in some parts of the country. I expect Sydney (lesser extent Melbourne) will keep rising as the RBA keeps cutting, pushing the peasants out to the periphery and filling the skyline with cranes.


“Talk sense to a fool and he calls you foolish.” - Euripides
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stinkbug
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Ex BP Golly
4 Nov 2015, 10:15 AM

The only person I have ever 'attacked' is Shadow. I know that upsets you greatly.


Liar.

Want me to start posting links to prove it?
Loki
4 Nov 2015, 10:19 AM


Already in motion in some parts of the country. I expect Sydney (lesser extent Melbourne) will keep rising as the RBA keeps cutting, pushing the peasants out to the periphery and filling the skyline with cranes.
You are delusional. Excluding remote mining towns, there is now crash. Some places have markets softening and falling a bit, some are steady, some are on the rise.
Edited by stinkbug, 4 Nov 2015, 10:32 AM.
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While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Ex BP Golly
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stinkbug
4 Nov 2015, 10:30 AM
Liar.

Want me to start posting links to prove it?
Did I inadvertently beat you to near death once with a bit of limp lettuce?
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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stinkbug
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Ex BP Golly
4 Nov 2015, 11:49 AM
Did I inadvertently beat you to near death once with a bit of limp lettuce?
Ahhhh, the old redirect again.

It's a real pleasure reading your posts.
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Loki
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stinkbug
4 Nov 2015, 10:30 AM
You are delusional.
Coming from you, I will take that as a compliment.
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Excluding remote mining towns,
And regional NSW, and regional QLD, and regional SA.
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there is now crash.
Yes, that's what I wrote, I'm glad we agree.
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Some places have markets softening and falling a bit, some are steady, some are on the rise.
Define a crash.


“Talk sense to a fool and he calls you foolish.” - Euripides
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stinkbug
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Loki
4 Nov 2015, 12:16 PM


Yes, that's what I wrote, I'm glad we agree.

Define a crash.
Ooooh, cort bi tha speling poleece. Tee hee!

A crash is when a market falls rapidly and significantly. Personally, I'd consider a fall of 15% or more a crash. No doubt others will have varying definitions. What's yours?
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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