Are you sure the whole thing hasn't worked at all? In the US the unemployment rate fell from 11% down to 5% during the period when QE / ZIRP policy has been running since the GFC? The US went from a prolonged and deep recession into a period of fairly sustained and constant GDP growth in the 2-3%pa range since - over a period of 5+ years now?
Noone believes that propaganda, including yourself.
Noone believes that propaganda, including yourself.
Really? I thought only tin-foil hat wearing mad as bat-shit uber-bears / slavish devotees of doom sites like Zerohedge and Macrobusiness etc were the ones who make claims like this?
As soon as you come out and try and claim all the official GDP growth, unemployment data is doctored / untruthful / manipulated, the discussion becomes like religion - more a matter of faith, rather than a rational discussion of facts and evidence.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
Are you sure the whole thing hasn't worked at all? In the US the unemployment rate fell from 11% down to 5% during the period when QE / ZIRP policy has been running since the GFC? The US went from a prolonged and deep recession into a period of fairly sustained and constant GDP growth in the 2-3%pa range since - over a period of 5+ years now?
PS - need to be careful to say whether you are talking about the US or Oz as well (ie your reference to "your" wages)? We don't have ZIRP and we don't/didn't have QE - we just have quite low interest rates at the moment.
Also interesting to consider the UK versus Europe, and also Europe pre and post qe.
In fact, it would be interesting to see qe run alongside rising interest rates.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
Really? I thought only tin-foil hat wearing mad as bat-shit uber-bears / slavish devotees of doom sites like Zerohedge and Macrobusiness etc were the ones who make claims like this?
As soon as you come out and try and claim all the official GDP growth, unemployment data is doctored / untruthful / manipulated, the discussion becomes like religion - more a matter of faith, rather than a rational discussion of facts and evidence.
It is the conclusions that are drawn from those statistics that is the propaganda. The statistics are meaningless without an interpretation. I don't dispute the stats. whether they are real or not is irrelevant, because the conclusions drawn from them are the only thing that counts. The conclusions are the propaganda. And that is what noone believes.
It is the conclusions that are drawn from those statistics that is the propaganda. The statistics are meaningless without an interpretation. I don't dispute the stats. whether they are real or not is irrelevant, because the conclusions drawn from them are the only thing that counts. The conclusions are the propaganda. And that is what noone believes.
So what are you saying then?
I reckon that US GDP growth is higher and US unemployment lower, with QE / ZIRP, than would have been the case had they maintained higher interest rates and had no QE. Do you disagree?
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
Are you sure the whole thing hasn't worked at all? In the US the unemployment rate fell from 11% down to 5% during the period when QE / ZIRP policy has been running since the GFC? The US went from a prolonged and deep recession into a period of fairly sustained and constant GDP growth in the 2-3%pa range since - over a period of 5+ years now?
PS - need to be careful to say whether you are talking about the US or Oz as well (ie your reference to "your" wages)? We don't have ZIRP and we don't/didn't have QE - we just have quite low interest rates at the moment.
The type of monetary policy employed is irrelevant, the effect is the same - asset price bubbles.
The difference between this and other u.s recoveries is i) its taken a very long time ii) it's taken a lot of debt. iii) although the unemployment rate has remained low, underemployment has risen substantially.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness. "Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
I reckon that US GDP growth is higher and US unemployment lower, with QE / ZIRP, than would have been the case had they maintained higher interest rates and had no QE. Do you disagree?
Tell me what conclusion you're inferring from the unemployment statistic then I'll attempt to answer you. The statistic is meaningless without an interpretation.
Tell me what conclusion you're inferring from the unemployment statistic then I'll attempt to answer you. The statistic is meaningless without an interpretation.
Stop avoiding the question with gibberish like that please!
My question is a simple one - if there had been no ZIRP and QE, would US unemployment be higher or lower than now? How about GDP growth? The measures are exactly the same in either scenario.
My question is a simple one - if there had been no ZIRP and QE, would US unemployment be higher or lower than now? How about GDP growth? The measures are exactly the same in either scenario.
Maybe 10 trillion dollars of new sovereign debt since 2007 might have had a hand in it?
lonewolf
5 Oct 2015, 10:18 PM
With 0% interest rate in US, I am starting to think why can't Australia have the same? If its just about printing money, what makes the interest rate 0% in some country and 10% in some? Can someone explain in noob terms? Are we going to see below 2% interest rate for next 10 years here in Australia too?
If I lend you money, I will need to asses the risk of lending to you to gauge my return.
If you are a tramp on the street corner, asking for $5 bucks for a coffee, I am not going to get my money back.
I could charge you 500% interest but I will not see a penny of it (but my balance book would look very good for a while).
If you were Richard Branson asking for a 50 cent piece for the parking meter, I would hand it over to you in a flash, no interest expected.
But what if you were Richard Branson, on the ropes and up to his ears in debt but nobody was really aware of the fact?
Or it was so hard to believe that you were on the ropes, that nobody believed it?
You could still borrow for no interest, live the high life on borrowed money.
And one day, I would find out that I might as well have given the tramp $5 for a coffee.
Interest rates are not a function of the ability to repay. They are a function of the perception of the lender of the ability of the borrower to repay.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
Maybe 10 trillion dollars of new sovereign debt since 2007 might have had a hand in it? If I lend you money, I will need to asses the risk of lending to you to gauge my return.
If you are a tramp on the street corner, asking for $5 bucks for a coffee, I am not going to get my money back.
I could charge you 500% interest but I will not see a penny of it (but my balance book would look very good for a while).
If you were Richard Branson asking for a 50 cent piece for the parking meter, I would hand it over to you in a flash, no interest expected.
But what if you were Richard Branson, on the ropes and up to his ears in debt but nobody was really aware of the fact?
Or it was so hard to believe that you were on the ropes, that nobody believed it?
You could still borrow for no interest, live the high life on borrowed money.
And one day, I would find out that I might as well have given the tramp $5 for a coffee.
Interest rates are not a function of the ability to repay. They are a function of the perception of the lender of the ability of the borrower to repay.
It goes a bit further than that. Not so long ago, people paid German banks to look after their money, in the expectation that other people would be prepared to pay the German banks more at a later date, thus increasing the value of their loss making investment. Sounds crazy until you realise this is the same logic the Australian housing market is built on.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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