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Owner-occupiers pick up the housing market baton; APRA's credit brake changes the housing equation
Topic Started: 1 Oct 2015, 05:39 PM (1,865 Views)
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Owner-occupiers pick up the housing market baton

APRA's credit brake changes the housing equation

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peter fraser
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As predicted
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Terry
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peter fraser
1 Oct 2015, 05:49 PM
As predicted
By who? Not much of a prediction when you have owner occupiers and non-owners.
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peter fraser
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Terry
1 Oct 2015, 05:53 PM
By who? Not much of a prediction when you have owner occupiers and non-owners.
By me.

Yes it's an intuitive prediction for me, but apparently not so others.
My prediction was that investor lending would reduce to under 10% growth before Xmas.
The data will meet or better the APRA target of 10% growth.

Hallelujah.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Veritas
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peter fraser
1 Oct 2015, 05:49 PM
As predicted
Wont be enough to pick up the slack.

No way.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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peter fraser
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Veritas
1 Oct 2015, 06:08 PM
Wont be enough to pick up the slack.

No way.
very little aggregate change is also part of my prediction.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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ThePauk
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peter fraser
1 Oct 2015, 06:02 PM
By me.

Yes it's an intuitive prediction for me, but apparently not so others.
My prediction was that investor lending would reduce to under 10% growth before Xmas.
The data will meet or better the APRA target of 10% growth.

Hallelujah.
Can you reference this prediction of yours?
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Veritas
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peter fraser
1 Oct 2015, 06:09 PM
very little aggregate change is also part of my prediction.
Its not mine.

Especially in WA, demand will fall significantly from investors and demand from OOs will not be enough to make up the difference.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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peter fraser
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Veritas
1 Oct 2015, 06:19 PM
Its not mine.

Especially in WA, demand will fall significantly from investors and demand from OOs will not be enough to make up the difference.
I don't disagree, I was looking at the national scenario.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Terry
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peter fraser
1 Oct 2015, 06:38 PM
I don't disagree, I was looking at the national scenario.
Oh I see, this is some kind of engineered control of what suburbanites purchase houses. What an amazing country we live in. Kind of like that old British TV show from the 70s The Prisoner. And you have the ability from your control panel in suburbia to forecast this all. That's great, but why do we need forecasts, when everything is predetermined anyway?
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