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Australian property crash scenario already playing out! House prices will fall and fall and fall!
Topic Started: 30 Sep 2015, 02:21 PM (4,888 Views)
John F. Kennedy
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I'd say that house prices are overvalued according to their own ROI logic and that's why there will be a correction such as we are probably seeing at the moment. Linking it to this international finance stuff is a bit nebulous and not that helpful as too many variables are involved. Makes good hyperbole though.
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The Whole Truth
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Strindberg
30 Sep 2015, 03:21 PM
yep, the big '87 crash was immediately followed by a huge house price boom.
Idiot. Look at the chart, the 87 collapse was followed by a slump which only recovered after the stock market recovered. Now look at 2008 you idiot. House prices took a hit from the gfc too but recovered after the huge intervention by government and a recovery in stocks. You and shadow can't even read a chart.

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"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Stuart Mill
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Sydneyite
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The Whole Truth
30 Sep 2015, 07:12 PM
Idiot. Look at the chart, the 87 collapse was followed by a slump which only recovered after the stock market recovered. Now look at 2008 you idiot. House prices took a hit from the gfc too but recovered after the huge intervention by government and a recovery in stocks. You and shadow can't even read a chart.

Posted Image
Ummm - you might want to look at data that allows you to see what happened in 1987, vs 88/89. In typical fashion, you are COMPLETELY WRONG with what you just wrote there.....

The stock market crashed in Oct '87 - property was dead then. During '88/89 property went ballistic - more than doubling in Sydney during those 2 years. Those are facts. I know because my parents were trying to sell a Sydney house in '87 - just as well it didn't sell, because they sold it 18 months later for more than double what they were trying to sell it for in '87!
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

The Whole Truth
30 Sep 2015, 07:12 PM
Idiot. Look at the chart, the 87 collapse was followed by a slump

Posted Image
Your chart shows the index booming from 150 to 200 after the 87 crash, and that's in real terms too - it was massive in nominal terms, give the high inflation of that period.

In 1986 the Sydney median unit price was $72K. Within three years, by 1989, it had virtually doubled to $139K.

And the median house price also doubled from $98K in 1986 to $194K in 1990.

Data here... http://www.econ.mq.edu.au/Econ_docs/research_papers2/2004_research_papers/Abelson_9_04.pdf

Quote:
 
You and shadow can't even read a chart.
Better than you it seems.
Edited by Shadow, 30 Sep 2015, 07:59 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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The Whole Truth
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Sydneyite
30 Sep 2015, 07:53 PM


Posted Image
Ummm - you might want to look at data that allows you to see what happened in 1987, vs 88/89.


I don't need to look you idiot, you look

Posted Image

Your 88-90 period was the recovery stage after the crash as per the all ords chart. Then the stock market began to collapse again in an obvious fall and house prices followed suit but stayed suppressed in real terms longer.

In November 2007 the all ords was at 6900 and after the GFC it was 3100, houses dropped quickly too if you remember but they were already falling with the falling market before the GFC, then climbed back up as the market recovered. The stock market collapse now occuring has put the brakes on sydney hasn't it, and if it truly collapses so will house prices across the board.

Stop looking for precise month to month correlations, these markets can exhibit lags but the direct correlations are there if you don't blind yourself.

Here, it's obvious

Posted Image
Edited by The Whole Truth, 30 Sep 2015, 10:40 PM.
"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Stuart Mill
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peter fraser
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The Whole Truth
30 Sep 2015, 10:36 PM


I don't need to look you idiot, you look

Posted Image

Your 88-90 period was the recovery stage after the crash as per the all ords chart. Then the stock market began to collapse again in an obvious fall and house prices followed suit but stayed suppressed in real terms longer.

In November 2007 the all ords was at 6900 and after the GFC it was 3100, houses dropped quickly too if you remember but they were already falling with the falling market before the GFC, then climbed back up as the market recovered. The stock market collapse now occuring has put the brakes on sydney hasn't it, and if it truly collapses so will house prices across the board.

Stop looking for precise month to month correlations, these markets can exhibit lags but the direct correlations are there if you don't blind yourself.

Here, it's obvious

Posted Image
Surely you can't believe the rubbish that you write.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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The Whole Truth
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You're up late peter, not many mortgages to write up tomorrow?

September 28, 2015
The national average (auction)
clearance rate was 71.3 per cent, up from 69.9 per cent the previous week, according to preliminary figures from CoreLogic
Sydney (74.2 per cent) and Melbourne (73.3 per cent) continued to lead the national market, with Adelaide just under 70
per cent
and Brisbane just under 60 per cent.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-28/housing-market-slows-but-mortgage-arrears-fall/6809584
Edited by The Whole Truth, 30 Sep 2015, 10:54 PM.
"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Stuart Mill
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lonewolf
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wow..i see this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=459&v=gw_DvBeyg2s

and its so wrong on many levels, but what really surprise me is this guy is regarded as a genius investor instead of being locked up in a mental institute ! what is really wrong with the society!
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peter fraser
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The Whole Truth
30 Sep 2015, 10:53 PM
You're up late peter, not many mortgages to write up tomorrow?

September 28, 2015
The national average (auction)
clearance rate was 71.3 per cent, up from 69.9 per cent the previous week, according to preliminary figures from CoreLogic
Sydney (74.2 per cent) and Melbourne (73.3 per cent) continued to lead the national market, with Adelaide just under 70
per cent
and Brisbane just under 60 per cent.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-28/housing-market-slows-but-mortgage-arrears-fall/6809584
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.

Ah I did enjoy that. It's actually incredibly busy at the moment, and for your information an auction rate of 60% for Brisbane is very high.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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skamy
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Lou Ellen
30 Sep 2015, 02:21 PM
House prices will fall and fall and fall!

how fast it arrives and how deep it goes?
It has three cascading dominoes to it!

The first is an anything but ordinary global commodities bear market. It is shaping up as one of the greatest bubbles, mis-allocations of capital and busts in the history of capitalism. The macro dynamics at work in the global economy virtually ensure commodity prices will continue to fall as China slows and the US speeds up, boosting its dollar. This is exacerbated by other nations like Europe and Japan doing QE!

.... are double-smashed ............................. is going to default big and unleash a credit panic .................................That will bring on the final great crash in the commodities shakeout!

.................. ripping higher with major miners in tow!

..........bankrupt such household names as Fortescue Metals, Arrium, Santos and Origin Energy, virtually simultaneously. There is nothing in Australian contemporary history to compare with such an event!

................ the Budget is ravaged. They will bunker of course!

..............................The rate cuts that follow will be swift and deep.

.....................................the RBA will have to activate its emergency liquidity facility to keep them afloat!


............................ The Budget will be posting $100 billion plus deficits so the trajectory for sovereign debt will be a rather swift punch through the AAA-securing ceiling of 30% net debt to GDP!

............................ frightened households shocked anew at sovereign downgrades,
It’s a very negative feedback loop that could see house prices fall, and fall, and fall!
Seriously people - how does anyone read this bullshit and not see a snake oil salesman? This guy is peddling grossly exaggerated silly outcomes in words right from the mouths of fire and brimestone preachermen.


Are there seriously any bears who believe this crap?

Armageddon Sells


John F. Kennedy
30 Sep 2015, 03:25 PM
I'd say that house prices are overvalued according to their own ROI logic and that's why there will be a correction such as we are probably seeing at the moment. L
That is just a little fantasy of yours - all my life people have been saying house prices are overvalued but unfortunately house buyers disagree with them by far the majority of the time.
Edited by skamy, 1 Oct 2015, 01:11 AM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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