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Glencore facing collapse; Lehman Brothers moment?
Topic Started: 29 Sep 2015, 08:15 PM (3,781 Views)
Strindberg
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Perthite
29 Sep 2015, 08:15 PM
So what? What is your point?

Hypothetical. If I have a debt of 30 million and 60 million in assets wouldn't you buy me for 16 million?

I know fuck-all about Glencore but I fail to see your point.
Edited by Strindberg, 29 Sep 2015, 11:59 PM.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Terry
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Loki
29 Sep 2015, 09:19 PM
Yes, the bailout of AIG did the opposite of what derivatives are supposed to do. For every risk, there is a derivative. Goldman were buying CDS on CDOs from AIG, but they were not buying CDS on AIG itself because the premiums would have reduced their profit margins.

If AIG and Goldman had been allowed to go under, markets would have corrected in about 18 months to 2 years. A lot of rich people would have been made a LOT poorer, and that cannot be allowed to happen in a Kleptocracy that the US has unfortunately become. But the Baby Boomers retirement had to be saved at the expense of every future generation for political reasons, and rich people had to be saved for political reasons.

Now 7 years on and the markets are even more fragile than in 2008, but there appears to be a magic solution to this: Negative interest rates. That will blow the mother of all asset bubbles in every asset class. Think Tokyo real estate on steroids. Those who have assets (collateral) will obtain even more assets, those who have no assets (the young) will find themselves in perpetual servitude. The birth rate will collapse, and the barbarians will flood in.

This is an economic war where the side that commits suicide the fastest wins.
If AIG and GS had gone under, it's quite possible that you'd be bathing in the day after and things would have been tough for most, but possibly revelatory. You're talking about how sectors of the economy being completely reformed. It was never going to happen.

I think what you say about negative interest rates is potentially where we're heading, but it may not be so obvious. The problem is that the average retiree will be effectively tapped out under this scenario. Owning a house and even a couple of rentals is not necessarily a comfort zone. I think that it's quite possible that the reverse mortgage phenomenon will get some traction, which will be good for the old farts to some extent. P2P lending represents an opportunity and will possibly be more socially acceptable when the old farts realize that they can contribute to the younger generations while making lucre at the same time. The banks will grin and bear it to some extent. What I hope to see is the emergence of a P2P credit system as this appears to be the last bastion when it comes to consumer finance. Furthermore, the dark internet should become more prevalent. Whether its car sharing accommodation, drugs, knowledge transfer, the middle man should be marginalized to some extent.
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Loki
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Strindberg
29 Sep 2015, 11:58 PM
So what? What is your point?

Hypothetical. If I have a debt of 30 million and 60 million in assets wouldn't you buy me for 16 million?
If Glencore had more than 30 billion in assets then it would be trading at a 50% discount to NAV, and every hedge fund, private equity, LBO cowboy would be salivating at the prospect of asset stripping the shit out of it for a quick profit.

The fact that it's share price hasn't recovered tells you that it doesn't have more then 30 billion in assets, so it must be insolvent.
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I know fuck-all about Glencore but I fail to see your point.
You know fuck all about a lot of things.

herbie
29 Sep 2015, 09:31 PM
Woe, woe, woe - Cry, cry, cry ... :)
Fuckwit.
Edited by Loki, 30 Sep 2015, 12:23 AM.


“Talk sense to a fool and he calls you foolish.” - Euripides
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Matthew
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Strindberg
29 Sep 2015, 11:58 PM
So what? What is your point?

Hypothetical. If I have a debt of 30 million and 60 million in assets wouldn't you buy me for 16 million?

I know fuck-all about Glencore but I fail to see your point.
cashflow has a fair say as well
Loki
30 Sep 2015, 12:22 AM
If Glencore had more than 30 billion in assets then it would be trading at a 50% discount to NAV, and every hedge fund, private equity, LBO cowboy would be salivating at the prospect of asset stripping the shit out of it for a quick profit.

The fact that it's share price hasn't recovered tells you that it doesn't have more then 30 billion in assets, so it must be insolvent.

You know fuck all about a lot of things.


Fuckwit.
you are a smug fuckwit and I am hoping at some point on this journey we share you will actually make a point that does not make you seem like such a c u nt
Edited by Matthew, 30 Sep 2015, 12:43 AM.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Strindberg
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Loki
30 Sep 2015, 12:22 AM
You know fuck all about a lot of things.

Fuckwit.
..and you know fuck all about anything imagining, like your fellow crash wishing doomers like perthite, that a net positive market value is the same thing as insolvency.

Glencore may be insolvent - but not simply on the basis of two isolated figures perthite posted from his worshipped ABC doomer public leeches site.

But I am very happy I have no shares and have never spruiked any share buying unlike some of the easy money gambling property bears on this site and those on dedicated doomer sites like macrobusiness et al.
Edited by Strindberg, 30 Sep 2015, 12:59 AM.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Loki
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Matthew
30 Sep 2015, 12:42 AM
you are a smug fuckwit and I am hoping at some point on this journey we share you will actually make a point that does not make you seem like such a c u nt
Thanks for sharing your insight, the level of detail in your posts always impresses.

Here is a freebie for you: http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/glncy/financials

Knock yourself out making a point that does not make you seem like such a c u nt.


Strindberg
30 Sep 2015, 12:55 AM
..and you know fuck all about anything imagining, like your fellow crash wishing doomers like perthite, that a net positive market value is the same thing as insolvency.

Glencore may be insolvent - but not simply on the basis of two isolated figures perthite posted from his worshipped ABC doomer public leeches site.

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/glncy/financials

That's from the doomer site Market Watch.

You seem to think you are pretty smart. You figure it out.
Quote:
 
But I am very happy I have no shares and have never spruiked any share buying unlike some of the easy money gambling property bears on this site and those on dedicated doomer sites like macrobusiness et al.
Oh, shares are for easy money gamblers. Right. Like them new fangled aeroplanes. If God had meant us to fly, we would have been born with 100,000 frequent flyer points.

Posted Image
Edited by Loki, 30 Sep 2015, 01:11 AM.


“Talk sense to a fool and he calls you foolish.” - Euripides
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Matthew
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Loki
30 Sep 2015, 01:03 AM
Thanks for sharing your insight, the level of detail in your posts always impresses.

Here is a freebie for you: http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/glncy/financials

thanks for going to all that effort to copy and paste a link with out actually making a point relating to it.

The fact you then posted the same link a second time, in the same comment, still without making a point about it. Well if you are wondering that is what makes you a c u nt
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Ex BP Golly
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Strindberg
29 Sep 2015, 11:58 PM
So what? What is your point?

Hypothetical. If I have a debt of 30 million and 60 million in assets wouldn't you buy me for 16 million?

I know fuck-all about Glencore but I fail to see your point.
we have bankruptcy provisions to cater for folk like you.
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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Loki
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Matthew
30 Sep 2015, 01:22 AM
Well if you are wondering that is what makes you a c u nt
I wrote a detailed reply, but thought better of it. Thanks for the heads up on my c u nt i ness.


“Talk sense to a fool and he calls you foolish.” - Euripides
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Strindberg
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Ex BP Golly
30 Sep 2015, 01:43 AM
we have bankruptcy provisions to cater for folk like you.
I see. I'll take that irrelevant ad hominem as confirmation that, just like your fellow doomer loki, you are unable to find any valid point being made by perthite in his OP.

Bears do have an amusing habit of inadvertently indicating golden "buy" opportunities, even if only short term, when they go into a mutual celebratory circle jerk over some apparent doomer event. This one (here) caught almost the whole APF doomer tribe - createdby, John Frum, Terry, newjez, Chris, loki, foxbat, luudapull, ex BP golly, jimbo and the whole lie all in mutual frenzied glee and missing the short term opportunity to make dosh (+17% in 24 hours wasn't it?).
Edited by Strindberg, 30 Sep 2015, 10:36 AM.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
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