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Foreign interest in Aussie debt peaks; The great capital flight begins
Topic Started: 25 Sep 2015, 10:25 AM (7,400 Views)
Simon_S
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John Frum
27 Sep 2015, 12:19 PM
It's artificially masking investment risk in the hope that the economy will reach escape velocity and again be able to price yields solely on risk and inflation expectations.


Very Good point John.....

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John Frum
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Is Donald Trump going to burst Australia's housing bubble?

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More inflation is what the bond market reaction is saying as yields rise and the price of bonds dive.


Bond market rumblings signal the death knell for expensive property. You're about to get SMASHED folks.
Edited by John Frum, 12 Nov 2016, 09:15 PM.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness.
"Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
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herbie
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John Frum
12 Nov 2016, 09:14 PM
You're about to get SMASHED folks.
Did that make you feel any better John?
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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John Frum
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Sufferin' succotash! Recently issued Austrian70 year bonds crash 11% on speculation of Trumpflation!!!!!

Posted Image

bu-bu-bu what about all those boffins promising us yields were going to be "lower for longer" and a "new normal" (oh yeh, they were also the ones smugly assuring us that Clinton was a shoo-in. whoopsie!)

And what, pray tell, about all those people levered to the hilt with massive mortgages and shrinking pay-packets?

Surely you won't bump up rates now and pop the bubble, will you Philip?

....Philip? ..... Philip?

OH NOES!!! THE HUMANITY!

Edited by John Frum, 15 Nov 2016, 12:56 AM.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness.
"Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
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herbie
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John Frum
15 Nov 2016, 12:32 AM
Sufferin' succotash! Recently issued Aussie 70 year bonds crash 11% on speculation of Trumpflation!!!!!

Posted Image

bu-bu-bu what about all those boffins promising us yields were going to be "lower for longer" and a "new normal" (oh yeh, they were also the ones smugly assuring us that Clinton was a shoo-in. whoopsie!)

And what, pray tell, about all those people levered to the hilt with massive mortgages and shrinking pay-packets?

Surely you won't bump up rates now and pop the bubble, will you Philip?

....Philip? ..... Philip?

OH NOES!!! THE HUMANITY!

70 yr Oz bonds?

Ya not makin' this shit up are ya Frummy?

Like ya've not accidentally happened on some link ta price movements in Bond's undies for 70 yr old Aussies 'n got all excited or some such have ya? ... :) ???

Oh, it's AUSTRIA - Never mind; We all know wot them 'wogs' are like ... :)
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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John Frum
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herbie
15 Nov 2016, 12:48 AM
70 yr Oz bonds?

Ya not makin' this shit up are ya Frummy?

Like ya've not accidentally happened on some link ta price movements in Bond's undies for 70 yr old Aussies 'n got all excited or some such have ya? ... :) ???

Oh, it's AUSTRIA - Never mind; We all know wot them 'wogs' are like ... :)
Doh! good pickup Herbie. Have corrected.

Still, you wont have anything to worry about when the great capital flight begins, eh? Being all paid off with your properties like.
Egads! U.S bond yields rocketing too!

Posted Image

With Australian-US yield spreads shrinking so quickly, what's a guy to do?
Edited by John Frum, 15 Nov 2016, 01:03 AM.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness.
"Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
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herbie
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John Frum
15 Nov 2016, 12:58 AM
Doh! good pickup Herbie. Have corrected.

Still, you wont have anything to worry about when the great capital flight begins, eh? Being all paid off with your properties like.
Egads! U.S bond yields rocketing too!

Posted Image

With Australian-US yield spreads shrinking so quickly, what's a guy to do?
Oh dear; Tha Yanks are back in action - Wotever might happen ta tha shiny shit tonite?

Wif me personal feelin' bein' ta concur 'n say Yep, I am happy ta have some paid off property - Even if it is only shitty Brisvegas shit ... :)
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

John Frum
25 Sep 2015, 10:25 AM
One of the narratives I've noticed from property bulls on this forum over the last couple of years is the idea that the RBA still has "plenty of firepower left" i.e. will be able to cut rates, buy currency, bonds, do whatever it takes to keep property prices rising at current levels, so enjoy the ride and house prices to the moon etc etc.

As a counter-argument I've been suggesting that this firepower is non-existant - that only big currencies like the euro and the us dollar have the financial gravitas to make these kinds of manipulations. My argument runs more along the lines that the aussie dollar is at it's core still the pacific peso, and as bigger western nations begin their fiscal tightening cycle we will see a massive wave of capital flight that will sink our dollar into the 50's, force up yields on bonds and ultimately mortgage interest rates, precipitating a housing crash of epic proportions.

Well behold, we now have dramatic evidence that this process is beginning in earnest:

http://m.smh.com.au/business/markets/foreign-holdings-of-australian-government-bonds-may-have-peaked-20150923-gjt1da.html


who in their right mind would lend money to someone at 2% interest or less??




herbie
15 Nov 2016, 01:21 AM
Oh dear; Tha Yanks are back in action - Wotever might happen ta tha shiny shit tonite?

Wif me personal feelin' bein' ta concur 'n say Yep, I am happy ta have some paid off property - Even if it is only shitty Brisvegas shit ... :)
Yes i have been paddy whacked,

Lost a bucket load, and the bloody bucket.

Grrrrr
Peter
as i say, if the rates go to low, who would invest into them???

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-14/30-year-us-treasury-yields-spike-above-300-highest-fed-rate-hike

$30,000 p.a. on $1m.

Edited by Foxy, 15 Nov 2016, 09:59 AM.
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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herbie
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Musty: "Loss a bucket load,and the bloody bucket."

Ah well, at least ya still got ya sense a humour mate. (Assumin' ya meant that ta be a funny comment? - Like just checkin' like?)

No wunder tha bloody Chinese outcompete us tho eh? :

https://www.bonds.com.au/mens/underwear.html?utm_source=bing&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=Bonds%20-%20AU%20-%20Audience%20-%20Mens&utm_term=bonds%20underwear%20men&utm_content=Bonds%20Underwear%20Men&gclid=CIiHia_IqNACFYUpvAodsM4MOw&gclsrc=ds&dclid=CK7Rk6_IqNACFUYplgod2HkPqA

Ferk, I can only hope we've NOT actually outsourced makin' this shit ta them - Imagine workin' 18 hrs a days in some sweat shop makin' such shit - LOL

Tha little buggers would be THOROUGHLY justified in hatin' our guts forever I reckon ... :D (Hmmm - 'N there's 1.3 billion of 'em :hmm: - LOL)

Edited by herbie, 15 Nov 2016, 04:10 AM.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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herbie
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Musty: "Loss a bucket load,and the bloody bucket."

Tha good news is it seems ta be holdin' up OK for now Musty - But ya knows wot these Yank dudes can be like - They can be SUCH speculative fickle trader types ... :)
Edited by herbie, 15 Nov 2016, 04:42 AM.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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