I agree. Nevertheless, the researcher needs to remove himself from speculating on "what it all means" and let you think about that for yourself. It's a tremendous resource and I wonder what they actually offer their clients as opposed to these public releases.
The sampling seems very sound, if not a little too large, which means that the actual data collection costs can't be cheap.
it's hard to resist the temptation of putting an interpretation on data, but I really don't mind that. We are all free to disagree if we choose to.
What I've been looking at is the chart for the different dwelling choices that people have a preference for.
There has been a lot of speculation about the volume of apartments being built. Many analysts think that there will be a glut of units. However that chart is telling us that about 33% if FTB's want to buy a suburban house, and another 13% want to buy a house on the outskirts - so a total of 46% want a house on there own plot of land.
But another 13% want a city edge unit, 5% want an inner city unit, and another 35% want a suburban unit. So in all 53% of buyers prefer a unit and only 46% prefer a house. I have left the undecided out of the equation.
Based on that all of the apartments might find buyers even if it takes some time. Maybe we have all under-estimated the shift towards units, or maybe the shift is price driven and in reality FTB's would rather have a house. I suspect that DFA have more detailed information but release it to only those who will pay for it, which is fair enough, it costs money to do this research. Large unit developers pay for that information, and they have been building - so that's worth thinking about. They would be unlikely to build against the advise of their research.
Except for you though Chris - right? You're smarter than all those dumb people aren't you?
I've never said I was infinitely smarter than anyone, ever.
I am not immuned by any means, I'm just not driven to meet the ideals of others, thats not to say I haven't felt them encroach on me.
I have primarily seen those younger than me stressing at 19, 20, 25 that they don't have a property and spending significant portion of their lives thinking of ways to buy. Once they have purchased most admit it's IO and with little or no deposit, they have risen to the ideal but given little or no consideration as to whether they are actually getting the dream they have been sold, or ever will.
Just because I consider these things does not make me smarter at all, not one bit. I am just older and have been afforded the gift of perspective, I know what recessions can do to someone's 'perceived' wealth.
it's hard to resist the temptation of putting an interpretation on data, but I really don't mind that. We are all free to disagree if we choose to.
What I've been looking at is the chart for the different dwelling choices that people have a preference for.
There has been a lot of speculation about the volume of apartments being built. Many analysts think that there will be a glut of units. However that chart is telling us that about 33% if FTB's want to buy a suburban house, and another 13% want to buy a house on the outskirts - so a total of 46% want a house on there own plot of land.
But another 13% want a city edge unit, 5% want an inner city unit, and another 35% want a suburban unit. So in all 53% of buyers prefer a unit and only 46% prefer a house. I have left the undecided out of the equation.
Based on that all of the apartments might find buyers even if it takes some time. Maybe we have all under-estimated the shift towards units, or maybe the shift is price driven and in reality FTB's would rather have a house. I suspect that DFA have more detailed information but release it to only those who will pay for it, which is fair enough, it costs money to do this research. Large unit developers pay for that information, and they have been building - so that's worth thinking about. They would be unlikely to build against the advise of their research.
Sure, I think that you pose the right questions, which can be answered by a preference question among the different variables. With that one question, you're giving an important insight that can help you make inferences to what can see below. What would be even more interesting is what people are prepared to trade off to choose a house over an apartment. It would be possible to understand this by looking at the differences in the cross tabs of "what you will buy" x "reasons to buy" for houses vs apartments. However, you can only ask so much information in a modern-day consumer survey. If you take more than 20 mins of people's time, they're not interested. People expect incentives to take part in a survey. For example, in Japan, housewives get paid about AUD40 for a 20-25 min online survey. If you're a housewife or part-time worker, that's not a bad payment.
But as I said "the youngest Gen Y in my family would like to buy, and probably will in maybe three years. Her older brother is busy enjoying himself for now, so almost certainly won't - That's life."
PS: Fuck you're stupid Paul.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer:"negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
We can all draw whatever interpretations we like. To me it simply looks as though first timers are now becoming priced out of owning a traditional family home and are using the strategy of buying a less expensive unit which they do not really wish to live in as a leg up into an actual house. Hence the focus on capital gains over somewhere to live as the prime motivator.
It may be all but impossible for growing numbers of them to afford a house but the profit from the sale of their investment unit might just be the leg up they need to get there. I tend to think that this is likely just as big a reason if not the main reason for the behaviour, as opposed to simply seeing it as a wealth building tool, though I'm sure that motivation is strong as well.
Once this strategy being employed by our current crop of first timers has caused unit prices to swell to the point where the next crop can't even afford that, it seems unclear what will happen from there.
But anyway, to put it back into some sort of semblance of perspective (from my mob's perspective anyway), the youngest Gen Y in my family would like to buy, and probably will in maybe three years
So when she comes back from walkabout she'll apply for that special government loan?
"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Stuart Mill
So when she comes back from walkabout she'll apply for that special government loan?
The fact that so many bears are such fuckwits these days, does make it rather more difficult for me to empathise with the cause than was once the case.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer:"negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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