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Hit The Bid! Australian property is intensely vulnerable. Why property is in trouble.; A housing bust is inevitable and cannot be avoided!
Topic Started: 22 Sep 2015, 03:56 PM (7,033 Views)
skamy
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Veritas
25 Sep 2015, 12:53 AM
Thats what Bern Bernanke said in 2006 about US house prices.

Veritas - you are being silly -just because one person once thought that a hyper-inflating market would not crash that does not mean that now anyone anywhere has got no right to comment on the fact that most property markets don't crash.

The US was a totally overheated market - whereas we are in a market that is just recovering from a decade well below average growth- US house prices are rebounding and so are Australia's.
Price's sometimes crash after a long period of above average growth not after a decade of stagnation. Why do you fall for this rubbish? How much of your young life are you gonna waste serving at the altars of doom and gloom?

If the average price growth for the past decade was well above the usual growth of 9% maybe a crash or correction will be due but the polar opposite is true.

A building fell down in China recently - I bet you could find loads of people who said this could not happen- so does this mean that all buildings everywhere are now going to fall over.
Why do you let these stupid propaganda methods get past your bullshit meters?

Edited by skamy, 25 Sep 2015, 01:59 AM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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newjez
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skamy
25 Sep 2015, 12:47 AM
Posted Image

Why do people keep believing that Sydney prices will fall ? it really is a nonsensical belief.

Historically over the last 7 decades, Sydney prices have grown on average by 9% per annum - yet using the ABS index the average annual house price growth has been just 4.7% over the decade since 2005. (including last quarter's huge 8.9% growth).

Many times in the last 7 decades house prices have stalled for years but they have always always caught up again. Why would this time be any different? It is definitely what is being observed at the moment. Why not believe that things will do what they always do ? - why have these fantasies of never before observed scenarios of doom?

Looking at the chart above, there have only been a very very few occasions since 1880 when there has been any kind of significant drop ie 5% or above - why on earth do people believe these silly people predicting ridiculous price drops ? Common sense should tell you how unlikely these scenarios of doom are.

Honestly some people will predict Armageddon like there's no tomorrow.

Australian prices have grown on average by 8.6% over the past 7 decades --over the last decade since 2005 (using the ABS index) they have grown on average by 5.3%.

It does not take much common sense to see what is going to happen next - property will do what it has always done --of course it will.


Doomsters have their own agendas and always have- eventually this new generation of bears that have fallen for their nonsense will wake up just as every other generation before them did.
So - if we take everything you've said about the Perth market and put it in your shit machine, we get the above do we?
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Terry
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skamy
25 Sep 2015, 01:51 AM
Veritas - you are being silly -just because one person once thought that a hyper-inflating market would not crash that does not mean that now anyone anywhere has got no right to comment on the fact that most property markets don't crash.

The US was a totally overheated market - whereas we are in a market that is just recovering from a decade well below average growth- US house prices are rebounding and so are Australia's.
Price's sometimes crash after a long period of above average growth not after a decade of stagnation. Why do you fall for this rubbish? How much of your young life are you gonna waste serving at the altars of doom and gloom?

If the average price growth for the past decade was well above the usual growth of 9% maybe a crash or correction will be due but the polar opposite is true.

A building fell down in China recently - I bet you could find loads of people who said this could not happen- so does this mean that all buildings everywhere are now going to fall over.
Why do you let these stupid propaganda methods get past your bullshit meters?
Puppet master letting your leash out a bit after not getting many bites recently? Seems almost ready for the rest home for trolls.
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

It does not matter what price the houses are at, they have no yield.

You may as well buy rocks.

Peter
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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Jimbo
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skamy
25 Sep 2015, 01:51 AM
Why do you fall for this rubbish? How much of your young life are you gonna waste serving at the altars of doom and gloom?
Everything you have said would happen in the last year has not happened. The spring house buying spree in Perth (2014), the global recovery, the strengthening Australian economy.

You are consistently wrong, post after post.

Welcome back.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Ex BP Golly
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skamy
25 Sep 2015, 01:51 AM
A building fell down in China recently - I bet you could find loads of people who said this could not happen-
Yes, they are called property bulls.

Only they could be blinkered enough to fail to imagine the possibility in China.
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Jimbo
25 Sep 2015, 04:35 AM
Everything you have said would happen in the last year has not happened
What happened to the Perth crash you promised? RP Data shows Perth to be essentially flat, down less than 1% percent over the year, which is just noise.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Rastus2
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skamy
25 Sep 2015, 01:51 AM
Veritas - you are being silly -just because one person once thought that a hyper-inflating market would not crash that does not mean that now anyone anywhere has got no right to comment on the fact that most property markets don't crash.

The US was a totally overheated market - whereas we are in a market that is just recovering from a decade well below average growth- US house prices are rebounding and so are Australia's.
Price's sometimes crash after a long period of above average growth not after a decade of stagnation. Why do you fall for this rubbish? How much of your young life are you gonna waste serving at the altars of doom and gloom?

If the average price growth for the past decade was well above the usual growth of 9% maybe a crash or correction will be due but the polar opposite is true.

A building fell down in China recently - I bet you could find loads of people who said this could not happen- so does this mean that all buildings everywhere are now going to fall over.
Why do you let these stupid propaganda methods get past your bullshit meters?
Are you rewlky saying just kne person thought the market would not crash ? :bl:


Our average price growth is based on an economy that allows that growth... i am watching our leading indicators before pulling the trigger on any purchase simply because historic returns are not a predictor of the future.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Strindberg
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Jimbo
25 Sep 2015, 04:35 AM
Everything you have said would happen in the last year has not happened. The spring house buying spree in Perth (2014), the global recovery, the strengthening Australian economy.

You are consistently wrong, post after post.
...but not as "wrong" as you.

This was you on a Perth thread over a year ago (here):
Quote:
 
Jimbo 31 Aug 2014, 01:22 PM

This is where we are now.

Posted Image

You weren't alone with your unambiguous Perth crash prediction.

This was Veritas, about the same time on a Perth crash thread (here):
Quote:
 
Veritas 13 Aug 2014, 03:24 PM

Would you consider a drop in the median of between 20-30% a crash?

That's what's coming barring ZIRP.




Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Veritas
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Strindberg
25 Sep 2015, 10:05 AM
...but not as "wrong" as you.

This was you on a Perth thread over a year ago (here):


You weren't alone with your unambiguous Perth crash prediction.

This was Veritas, about the same time on a Perth crash thread (here):




Remind me again, what direction are house prices in Perth heading. Oh, that’s right, down.
I never said it would be quick. Downswings in house prices rarely are. Even Ireland took a good four years to bottom out.
Meanwhile, WA bulls have been throwing in the towel left right and centre.
Then again, could be wrong. Will you be filling your boots with Perth IPs this year?


skamy
25 Sep 2015, 01:51 AM
Veritas - you are being silly -just because one person once thought that a hyper-inflating market would not crash that does not mean that now anyone anywhere has got no right to comment on the fact that most property markets don't crash.

The US was a totally overheated market - whereas we are in a market that is just recovering from a decade well below average growth- US house prices are rebounding and so are Australia's.
Price's sometimes crash after a long period of above average growth not after a decade of stagnation. Why do you fall for this rubbish? How much of your young life are you gonna waste serving at the altars of doom and gloom?

If the average price growth for the past decade was well above the usual growth of 9% maybe a crash or correction will be due but the polar opposite is true.

A building fell down in China recently - I bet you could find loads of people who said this could not happen- so does this mean that all buildings everywhere are now going to fall over.
Why do you let these stupid propaganda methods get past your bullshit meters?
What temperature is the Sydney housing market?


Posted Image
Edited by Veritas, 25 Sep 2015, 12:32 PM.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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