Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 5
  • 7
Hit The Bid! Australian property is intensely vulnerable. Why property is in trouble.; A housing bust is inevitable and cannot be avoided!
Topic Started: 22 Sep 2015, 03:56 PM (7,034 Views)
Shadow
Member Avatar
Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Sydneyite
24 Sep 2015, 11:54 AM
I called it based on the finance data trend back in July:

http://australianpropertyforum.com/single/?p=8566088&t=10335705
The May finance figures (release in July) did fall sharply, but bounced back strongly in the June and July figures...

MAY
Posted Image

JULY
Posted Image

If you look at the auction clearance rate breakdown by region (these are the RPData figures for last weekend) the weakness is in the lower-socioeconomic areas to the west of Sydney...

Posted Image

These areas traditionally aren't big on auctions, but I think with the media frenzy over the $1M median it has encouraged a lot of people in those areas to put their homes on the market.

The weak clearance rates in those parts are dragging down the overall Sydney median.

The beaches and eastern suburbs and north shore type areas are still very strong.
Attached to this post:
Attachments: RPData_Auction_Clearance_20Sep15.jpg (144.79 KB)
Edited by Shadow, 24 Sep 2015, 02:55 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
John F. Kennedy
Default APF Avatar


Bubble deflation has to start somewhere. Baulkham Hills this time.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Loki
Member Avatar


John F. Kennedy
24 Sep 2015, 03:23 PM
Bubble deflation has to start somewhere. Baulkham Hills this time.
I always thought Carlingford was ground zero for property corrections/crashes.


“Talk sense to a fool and he calls you foolish.” - Euripides
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
peter fraser
Member Avatar


Sydneyite
24 Sep 2015, 11:54 AM
You are a bit slow with that call, I called it based on the finance data trend back in July:

http://australianpropertyforum.com/single/?p=8566088&t=10335705

having said that, given this cycle has been mainly about Sydney/Melbourne, Brisbane may still have a while to run yet, even against the finance aggregates and auction/price trends in the big smoke.
I agree about Brisbane. Finance will stay strong for a while yet, but it's getting much harder for investors.
Terry
24 Sep 2015, 12:49 PM
Do you have a gadget that allows you to know this or is this something you said because it sounds exciting?
Decades of market observation. It's not fool proof but it does provide some insight.
Edited by peter fraser, 24 Sep 2015, 10:17 PM.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Terry
Member Avatar


peter fraser
24 Sep 2015, 10:13 PM
Decades of market observation. It's not fool proof but it does provide some insight.
And is the gift of decades of observing available to everyone or is there some process that most be followed? Feel free to share. What one's life be wasted if one sat back and observed for the next 5 years and things were not much different that they were today?
Edited by Terry, 24 Sep 2015, 11:08 PM.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
The Whole Truth
Member Avatar


zaph
24 Sep 2015, 12:47 PM
Sydneyite
24 Sep 2015, 11:54 AM
Brisbane may still have a while to run yet, even against the finance aggregates and auction/price trends in the big smoke.
I think so. Brisbane has ~10-20% gains left in this cycle.

The really dumb southern investors will soak up some of inner city unit oversupply. The slightly less dumb will buy up Logan/Ipswich. Cheap rents in the inner city and the outer city.

Brisbane has gone nowhere. Do you know anyone personally who has sold? I know 3 and all properties were in different inner city suburbs and all went for less that the peak prices back in 07-08. It's a myth Brisbane has seen gains, the gains purportedly achieved have been driven by sales of major renos and new builds on old blocks near the city, both of which have been extensive in number. The median price is bullshit considering these practices because no account is made for the cost of the improvements.



"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Stuart Mill
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Ex BP Golly
Member Avatar


Sydneyite
23 Sep 2015, 09:50 AM
How do you figure that? How many people do you think bought a house on Sydney at current prices on a > 90% LVR? You are massively overstating the numbers, even for this unlikely scenario .
Bought or borrowed?
Owe or owned.

Edited by Ex BP Golly, 25 Sep 2015, 12:39 AM.
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
skamy
Member Avatar


Posted Image

Why do people keep believing that Sydney prices will fall ? it really is a nonsensical belief.

Historically over the last 7 decades, Sydney prices have grown on average by 9% per annum - yet using the ABS index the average annual house price growth has been just 4.7% over the decade since 2005. (including last quarter's huge 8.9% growth).

Many times in the last 7 decades house prices have stalled for years but they have always always caught up again. Why would this time be any different? It is definitely what is being observed at the moment. Why not believe that things will do what they always do ? - why have these fantasies of never before observed scenarios of doom?

Looking at the chart above, there have only been a very very few occasions since 1880 when there has been any kind of significant drop ie 5% or above - why on earth do people believe these silly people predicting ridiculous price drops ? Common sense should tell you how unlikely these scenarios of doom are.

Honestly some people will predict Armageddon like there's no tomorrow.

Australian prices have grown on average by 8.6% over the past 7 decades --over the last decade since 2005 (using the ABS index) they have grown on average by 5.3%.

It does not take much common sense to see what is going to happen next - property will do what it has always done --of course it will.


Doomsters have their own agendas and always have- eventually this new generation of bears that have fallen for their nonsense will wake up just as every other generation before them did.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Veritas
Default APF Avatar


skamy
25 Sep 2015, 12:47 AM
Posted Image

Why do people keep believing that Sydney prices will fall ? it really is a nonsensical belief.

Historically over the last 7 decades, Sydney prices have grown on average by 9% per annum - yet using the ABS index the average annual house price growth has been just 4.7% over the decade since 2005. (including last quarter's huge 8.9% growth).

Many times in the last 7 decades house prices have stalled for years but they have always always caught up again. Why would this time be any different? It is definitely what is being observed at the moment. Why not believe that things will do what they always do ? - why have these fantasies of never before observed scenarios of doom?

Looking at the chart above, there have only been a very very few occasions since 1880 when there has been any kind of significant drop ie 5% or above - why on earth do people believe these silly people predicting ridiculous price drops ? Common sense should tell you how unlikely these scenarios of doom are.

Honestly some people will predict Armageddon like there's no tomorrow.

Australian prices have grown on average by 8.6% over the past 7 decades --over the last decade since 2005 (using the ABS index) they have grown on average by 5.3%.

It does not take much common sense to see what is going to happen next - property will do what it has always done --of course it will.


Doomsters have their own agendas and always have- eventually this new generation of bears that have fallen for their nonsense will wake up just as every other generation before them did.
Thats what Bern Bernanke said in 2006 about US house prices.

Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Terry
Member Avatar


skamy
25 Sep 2015, 12:47 AM
Posted Image

Why do people keep believing that Sydney prices will fall ? it really is a nonsensical belief.

Historically over the last 7 decades, Sydney prices have grown on average by 9% per annum - yet using the ABS index the average annual house price growth has been just 4.7% over the decade since 2005. (including last quarter's huge 8.9% growth).

Many times in the last 7 decades house prices have stalled for years but they have always always caught up again. Why would this time be any different? It is definitely what is being observed at the moment. Why not believe that things will do what they always do ? - why have these fantasies of never before observed scenarios of doom?

Looking at the chart above, there have only been a very very few occasions since 1880 when there has been any kind of significant drop ie 5% or above - why on earth do people believe these silly people predicting ridiculous price drops ? Common sense should tell you how unlikely these scenarios of doom are.

Honestly some people will predict Armageddon like there's no tomorrow.

Australian prices have grown on average by 8.6% over the past 7 decades --over the last decade since 2005 (using the ABS index) they have grown on average by 5.3%.

It does not take much common sense to see what is going to happen next - property will do what it has always done --of course it will.


Doomsters have their own agendas and always have- eventually this new generation of bears that have fallen for their nonsense will wake up just as every other generation before them did.
The puppet master must have spent a good 15 mins on that before whipping you of the box for this little cameo.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 5
  • 7



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy