Wow..I can't believe my eyes! Did the omniscience Shadow just mentioned the possibility of price going down! Wow...looks like I don't have to leave Sydney as planned afterall!!!
House prices fall every few years - just part of the cycle. Sydney prices fell in 2004, 2005, 2008 and 2011. Between 2003 and 2008, Sydney fell 20% in real terms.
"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Stuart Mill
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
How many Sydney properties will you be buying this year? It doesnt matter.
A 30% fall means hundreds of thousands in negative equity.
The fact that it takes it back to 2011 is neither here nor there.
Unless you believe that the losses will be reversed in short order.
Perhaps that's what your book on the property cycle written by the Kiwi 'get rich quick' merchant says?
Come on Veritas - do you seriously still believe the nonsense this guy posts?
How many years will you waste your life paying rent waiting on these silly fantasies of highly unlikely outcomes for our rich cities?
This guy is just an Armageddon spruiker these types have been around for hundreds of years why are you taken in by it over and over again?
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Come on Veritas - do you seriously still believe the nonsense this guy posts?
How many years will you waste your life paying rent waiting on these silly fantasies of highly unlikely outcomes for our rich cities?
This guy is just an Armageddon spruiker these types have been around for hundreds of years why are you taken in by it over and over again?
Perth property price are falling and have been falling for some time now.
Next.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
A 30% fall means hundreds of thousands in negative equity.
The fact that it takes it back to 2011 is neither here nor there.
Unless you believe that the losses will be reversed in short order.
I don't believe losses of that magnitude are going to occur in the first place.
Yes, Sydney will have a correction when this boom ends, probably around 10% in nominal terms. Which is no big deal considering prices have doubled in seven years.
But David Llewellyn-Smith's dreams of a 30-40% crash are pure fantasy.
I was simply pointing out that even if prices did crash by 30%, this would only take prices back to 2011 levels, which is when DLS originally predicted prices would decline in nominal terms for a decade. So his new forecast is a massive backflip from his 2011 forecast.
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