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Hit The Bid! Australian property is intensely vulnerable. Why property is in trouble.; A housing bust is inevitable and cannot be avoided!
Topic Started: 22 Sep 2015, 03:56 PM (7,037 Views)
Trollie
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Shadow
22 Sep 2015, 06:02 PM

Why all the abuse?
He's angry and afraid.
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Strindberg
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Trollie
22 Sep 2015, 09:41 PM
He's angry and afraid.
...and wishes he'd listened to Shadow and Bear Trap instead of waiting for the crash.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

lonewolf
22 Sep 2015, 09:34 PM
Wow..I can't believe my eyes! Did the omniscience Shadow just mentioned the possibility of price going down! Wow...looks like I don't have to leave Sydney as planned afterall!!!
House prices fall every few years - just part of the cycle. Sydney prices fell in 2004, 2005, 2008 and 2011. Between 2003 and 2008, Sydney fell 20% in real terms.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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The Whole Truth
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Shadow
22 Sep 2015, 04:24 PM

A 30% fall would only take Sydney prices back to where they were in 2011.

Which would take them back to around what they were in 2002.
Edited by The Whole Truth, 22 Sep 2015, 10:25 PM.
"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Stuart Mill
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

The Whole Truth
22 Sep 2015, 10:24 PM

Which would take them back to around what they were in 2002.
In real terms, yes, but they'd still be a lot higher in nominal terms.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Veritas
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Strindberg
22 Sep 2015, 09:44 PM
...and wishes he'd listened to Shadow and Bear Trap instead of waiting for the crash.
How many Sydney properties will you be buying this year?
Shadow
22 Sep 2015, 11:48 PM
In real terms, yes, but they'd still be a lot higher in nominal terms.
It doesnt matter.

A 30% fall means hundreds of thousands in negative equity.

The fact that it takes it back to 2011 is neither here nor there.

Unless you believe that the losses will be reversed in short order.

Perhaps that's what your book on the property cycle written by the Kiwi 'get rich quick' merchant says?
Edited by Veritas, 23 Sep 2015, 12:14 AM.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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skamy
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Veritas
23 Sep 2015, 12:11 AM
How many Sydney properties will you be buying this year?

It doesnt matter.

A 30% fall means hundreds of thousands in negative equity.

The fact that it takes it back to 2011 is neither here nor there.

Unless you believe that the losses will be reversed in short order.

Perhaps that's what your book on the property cycle written by the Kiwi 'get rich quick' merchant says?
Come on Veritas - do you seriously still believe the nonsense this guy posts?

How many years will you waste your life paying rent waiting on these silly fantasies of highly unlikely outcomes for our rich cities?

This guy is just an Armageddon spruiker these types have been around for hundreds of years why are you taken in by it over and over again?
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Veritas
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skamy
23 Sep 2015, 12:19 AM
Come on Veritas - do you seriously still believe the nonsense this guy posts?

How many years will you waste your life paying rent waiting on these silly fantasies of highly unlikely outcomes for our rich cities?

This guy is just an Armageddon spruiker these types have been around for hundreds of years why are you taken in by it over and over again?

Perth property price are falling and have been falling for some time now.

Next.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Veritas
23 Sep 2015, 12:11 AM
A 30% fall means hundreds of thousands in negative equity.

The fact that it takes it back to 2011 is neither here nor there.

Unless you believe that the losses will be reversed in short order.
I don't believe losses of that magnitude are going to occur in the first place.

Yes, Sydney will have a correction when this boom ends, probably around 10% in nominal terms. Which is no big deal considering prices have doubled in seven years.

But David Llewellyn-Smith's dreams of a 30-40% crash are pure fantasy.

I was simply pointing out that even if prices did crash by 30%, this would only take prices back to 2011 levels, which is when DLS originally predicted prices would decline in nominal terms for a decade. So his new forecast is a massive backflip from his 2011 forecast.
Edited by Shadow, 23 Sep 2015, 12:37 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

Shadow
22 Sep 2015, 04:24 PM
A 30% fall would only take Sydney prices back to where they were in 2011.
Hi Shadow, we got to get "real"

Real terms please.

Peter :oo:
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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