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When will property peak AU wide?
Topic Started: 22 Sep 2015, 12:32 PM (2,528 Views)
ThePauk
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So anyone want to make their guess about the peaks?
Edited by ThePauk, 22 Sep 2015, 12:33 PM.
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Car tart
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The general consensus is that the property market peaks immediately after you buy and reaches its lowest trough the day after you sell.
You cant drive a house, BUT you can always sleep in a car!
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The Whole Truth
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In real terms about 8 years ago
"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Stuart Mill
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Matthew
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The Whole Truth
22 Sep 2015, 02:05 PM
In real terms about 8 years ago
given the absolute mountain of actual evidence that debunks that bedtime story, care to tell us how you jumped to that wrong conclusion?
ThePauk
22 Sep 2015, 12:32 PM
So anyone want to make their guess about the peaks?
Australian market will probably peak in 2018/19. By that time Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane will be in the rise again, but not by enough to counter the stall that has to hit Sydney and Melbourne.
Edited by Matthew, 22 Sep 2015, 03:51 PM.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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peter fraser
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ThePauk
22 Sep 2015, 12:32 PM
So anyone want to make their guess about the peaks?
Every city is different Paul. EG in your area prices have been depressed but coming back now. Darwin falling, Perth falling, Brisbane and GC rising - it's not a homogeneous market.

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

The ultimate peak will occur when Australia's population starts to fall, possibly around 2050.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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peter fraser
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Shadow
22 Sep 2015, 06:08 PM
The ultimate peak will occur when Australia's population starts to fall, possibly around 2050.
You may be correct, but my best guess is that our population will continue to rise all of this century and well into the next. The global population may peak earlier, but there will be pressure from nations of lower socio-economic status to accept more and more immigrants to try to attain a population balance. We could easily have 100 million here in the next century.

Of course I could be wrong, it may be much more.

Edited by peter fraser, 22 Sep 2015, 06:35 PM.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Mallard
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The Whole Truth
22 Sep 2015, 02:05 PM
In real terms about 8 years ago
Aww. No tears now. You got it wrong. Suck it up princess
Collecting desperation.
Ex-Bp Golly April 2 2015. "I see with a slight overshoot -70% [fall in Sydney house prices] as being well within possibility"
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The Whole Truth
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"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Stuart Mill
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herbie
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Shadow
22 Sep 2015, 06:08 PM
The ultimate peak will occur when Australia's population starts to fall, possibly around 2050.
2060 barring stimulus is my very very rubbery punt at this time.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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