Sydney property prices faltering as new home 'tsunami' hits; Homes are 20 per cent overvalued, according to Goldman Sachs, which is seeing a one in three chance of a recession
Just rang the bank to get a new quote and found that the amount they're going to lend me for a PPOR has dropped by about 15%, despite nothing changing with my circumstances bar being 6 months older.
A sure sign as ever that either price falls or rate cuts are on the way very soon.
I recently had the opposite experience. Approval increased by around 45%. Fortunately for the house I bought we don't need the full amount.
I recently had the opposite experience. Approval increased by around 45%. Fortunately for the house I bought we don't need the full amount.
Utter rubbish.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness. "Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
It is possible that I wasn't pushing my borrowing limits with the first approval though - they just wrote an approval for what I asked for and again just recently.
Just rang the bank to get a new quote and found that the amount they're going to lend me for a PPOR has dropped by about 15%, despite nothing changing with my circumstances bar being 6 months older.
A sure sign as ever that either price falls or rate cuts are on the way very soon.
Perhaps that 6 months tipped you into an older category and hence less borrowing power?
Perhaps that 6 months tipped you into an older category and hence less borrowing power?
I doubt it would step up in a 15% jump, especially since i haven't had a birthday in that time.
A Lurker
22 Sep 2015, 11:04 AM
Why would you say that? It's totally true.
It is possible that I wasn't pushing my borrowing limits with the first approval though - they just wrote an approval for what I asked for and again just recently.
Your circumstances are totally different. You're comparing apples and oranges
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness. "Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
I doubt it would step up in a 15% jump, especially since i haven't had a birthday in that time.
Fair enough. Happy unbirthday!
Individual bank policies change all the time. Perhaps it's just the bank change. I'd be more interested if a broker could only get you 15% less and why?
For the next 12 months I predict that prices will continue to rise while the macro signs (commodity prices, employment, ToT) continue to deteriorate. I expect foreign investment in the sydney market to increase especially from China. I expect FHB number to continue to dwindle. I expect household debt rates to continue to outstrip GDP growth. I expect the median Sydney house price to top 1 mil sometime round the middle of next year. I then expect an 'event' to trigger a 'rush for the exits', a systemic retail banking crisis, and a property crash in the latter half of 2015 followed by a recession spilling over to 3-4 quarters of negative GDP numbers.
"What is your target median price for Sydney houses by the end of 2015?"
$750,000
You did originally say $700k by end 2015, but we'll take the later clarification of $750k in response to a direct question from Dr Watson. I couldn't easily find the post but I do also remember you citing October '15 specifically as the "tipping point".
So the "event" must be very close now that will trigger a "rush for the exits"! Any signs of the imminent collapse of your current employer? How are the default rates and bad loan provisions etc looking?
Thanks! Prefer celebrating days that don't remind of my age.
Quote:
Individual bank policies change all the time. Perhaps it's just the bank change. I'd be more interested if a broker could only get you 15% less and why?
I'm going to see a broker as it happens...considering the largish amount I want to borrow and my age it's probably a good idea.
Sydneyite
22 Sep 2015, 02:28 PM
!! !! !!
Wow!! Lots of smileys and exclamation marks!! - good to see you getting into the spirit of things too at this exciting time Sydneyite!!!
Quote:
So the "event" must be very close now that will trigger a "rush for the exits"!
This here looks like it has some potential to qualify, what do you think?
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness. "Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
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