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Sydney property prices faltering as new home 'tsunami' hits; Homes are 20 per cent overvalued, according to Goldman Sachs, which is seeing a one in three chance of a recession
Topic Started: 21 Sep 2015, 12:01 PM (5,157 Views)
A Lurker
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John Frum
22 Sep 2015, 09:34 AM
Just rang the bank to get a new quote and found that the amount they're going to lend me for a PPOR has dropped by about 15%, despite nothing changing with my circumstances bar being 6 months older.

A sure sign as ever that either price falls or rate cuts are on the way very soon.
I recently had the opposite experience. Approval increased by around 45%. Fortunately for the house I bought we don't need the full amount.
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John Frum
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A Lurker
22 Sep 2015, 10:29 AM
I recently had the opposite experience. Approval increased by around 45%. Fortunately for the house I bought we don't need the full amount.
Utter rubbish.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness.
"Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
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A Lurker
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John Frum
22 Sep 2015, 11:01 AM
Utter rubbish.
Why would you say that? It's totally true.

It is possible that I wasn't pushing my borrowing limits with the first approval though - they just wrote an approval for what I asked for and again just recently.
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zaph
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John Frum
22 Sep 2015, 09:34 AM
Just rang the bank to get a new quote and found that the amount they're going to lend me for a PPOR has dropped by about 15%, despite nothing changing with my circumstances bar being 6 months older.

A sure sign as ever that either price falls or rate cuts are on the way very soon.
Perhaps that 6 months tipped you into an older category and hence less borrowing power?
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John Frum
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zaph
22 Sep 2015, 11:07 AM
Perhaps that 6 months tipped you into an older category and hence less borrowing power?
I doubt it would step up in a 15% jump, especially since i haven't had a birthday in that time.
A Lurker
22 Sep 2015, 11:04 AM
Why would you say that? It's totally true.

It is possible that I wasn't pushing my borrowing limits with the first approval though - they just wrote an approval for what I asked for and again just recently.

Your circumstances are totally different. You're comparing apples and oranges
Edited by John Frum, 22 Sep 2015, 11:46 AM.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness.
"Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
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zaph
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John Frum
22 Sep 2015, 11:44 AM
I doubt it would step up in a 15% jump, especially since i haven't had a birthday in that time.
Fair enough. Happy unbirthday!

Individual bank policies change all the time. Perhaps it's just the bank change. I'd be more interested if a broker could only get you 15% less and why?
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Experts debunk ‘tsunami’ of new housing threat for Sydney
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Alex Barton
22 Sep 2015, 01:40 PM
The inverted commas were incorrectly placed. I think that should have read:

"Experts" debunk tsunami of new housing threat.
You cant drive a house, BUT you can always sleep in a car!
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Sydneyite
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John Frum
21 Sep 2015, 07:45 PM
I believe I called $1 mil median middle of 2015 to around $750k median at year end.

Assuming prices are dropping now this corresponds to a fall of roughly 2% per week until the end of the year.

Big call. Getting very excited now!
Correct - here are 2 key posts outlining your call!

http://australianpropertyforum.com/single/?p=8499331&t=10116371
John Frum
 
For the next 12 months I predict that prices will continue to rise while the macro signs (commodity prices, employment, ToT) continue to deteriorate. I expect foreign investment in the sydney market to increase especially from China. I expect FHB number to continue to dwindle. I expect household debt rates to continue to outstrip GDP growth. I expect the median Sydney house price to top 1 mil sometime round the middle of next year. I then expect an 'event' to trigger a 'rush for the exits', a systemic retail banking crisis, and a property crash in the latter half of 2015 followed by a recession spilling over to 3-4 quarters of negative GDP numbers.

http://australianpropertyforum.com/single/?p=8500722&t=10116371
John Frum
 
"What is your target median price for Sydney houses by the end of 2015?"

$750,000
You did originally say $700k by end 2015, but we'll take the later clarification of $750k in response to a direct question from Dr Watson. :to: I couldn't easily find the post but I do also remember you citing October '15 specifically as the "tipping point".

So the "event" must be very close now that will trigger a "rush for the exits"! Any signs of the imminent collapse of your current employer? How are the default rates and bad loan provisions etc looking? :dry:
Edited by Sydneyite, 22 Sep 2015, 02:28 PM.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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John Frum
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zaph
22 Sep 2015, 12:17 PM
Fair enough. Happy unbirthday!
Thanks! Prefer celebrating days that don't remind of my age.

Quote:
 
Individual bank policies change all the time. Perhaps it's just the bank change. I'd be more interested if a broker could only get you 15% less and why?

I'm going to see a broker as it happens...considering the largish amount I want to borrow and my age it's probably a good idea.
Sydneyite
22 Sep 2015, 02:28 PM
!! :re: !! :re: !! :re:
Wow!! :lol Lots of smileys and exclamation marks!! :lol - good to see you getting into the spirit of things too at this exciting time Sydneyite!!!

Quote:
 
So the "event" must be very close now that will trigger a "rush for the exits"!


This here looks like it has some potential to qualify, what do you think?

http://www.domain.com.au/news/agents-and-auctioneers-sound-warning-ahead-of-big-spring-auction-day-20150921-gjrhhm/
Edited by John Frum, 22 Sep 2015, 06:50 PM.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness.
"Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
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