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Oh dear my fellow bears, I truly am thinking we're screwed Brothers :); The baskets are even getting their plan in place to do "QE for The People" 'next time 'round'
Topic Started: 18 Sep 2015, 08:47 AM (7,775 Views)
herbie
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createdby
18 Sep 2015, 10:28 AM
China is fucked. They will end up like Russia, but even worse.
I quite like Russia ... :)
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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Ex BP Golly
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Chris
18 Sep 2015, 09:19 AM
Facetious Herb??

Fellow bears aigh, it's odd you use that wording because it implies you consider yourself a bear, which is absurd because you are clearly not.

Given that this post makes you look like a shit stirrer?!

At your core Herb you are a bull and you know it.
Herbie is best described as a reluctant Bull.
Back on Bubblenomics he was initially very bullish, but came, I believe, to realise the damage high property prices do.

He was especially concerned for children in the future never being able to afford housing, if I remember it correctly.

His biggest fear perhaps would be best experienced by looking at Black Panthers neo fudalist transmutation rantings.

Anything you'd like to add to that Herbie?


WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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peter fraser
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createdby
18 Sep 2015, 10:28 AM
Fucking naïve to think you can turn $2 a day factory workers into a nation of the consumers overnight.

Consumerism needs billions in investment in advertising to tap into the inner insecurities of people and make them buy shit. You need research, focus groups, airtime, print, media, a whole fucking industry that can't be created overnight, no less run by central government bureaucrats. Creative people need to run this shit.

Consumerism is also sustained by credit cards offers in the mail, installment schemes, leasing schemes, and a whole bunch of credit industry products and services to keep consumers spending beyond their means.

Can't fucking force $2 a day workers or even the regular Chinese middle class to go shopping on a hope, prayer, or commie decree (they would rather day trade).

China won't have a plan B beyond cheap labor for western consumers. Their copycat dream of fostering internal consumption without a corresponding massive investment in advertising, consumer loan industry, etc is naïve, laughable, and pathetic.

They squandered their money investing on computer trading account kiosks instead of billboards and TV ads. They squandered even more capital from stock market speculation instead of fostering aggregate demand for their factories.

China is fucked. They will end up like Russia, but even worse.
You've been left behind by reality

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/wages
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Poontang
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peter fraser
18 Sep 2015, 11:12 AM
You've been left behind by reality

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/wages
I think that is a double edged sword for them Peter.\

Foreign companies are becoming more reluctant to invest money in China based industries due to the quite high wage inflation over the last few years and are now looking at alternate countries to invest in.
Edited by Poontang, 18 Sep 2015, 11:29 AM.
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict.
Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.

The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it.
The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.

Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
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The Whole Truth
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The masses have had their QE. They spent it on houses, new cars and holidays.
"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Stuart Mill
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Black Panther
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Ex BP Golly
18 Sep 2015, 10:59 AM
Herbie is best described as a reluctant Bull.
Back on Bubblenomics he was initially very bullish, but came, I believe, to realise the damage high property prices do.

He was especially concerned for children in the future never being able to afford housing, if I remember it correctly.

His biggest fear perhaps would be best experienced by looking at Black Panthers neo fudalist transmutation rantings.

Anything you'd like to add to that Herbie?

Re "His biggest fear perhaps would be best experienced by looking at Black Panthers neo fudalist transmutation rantings."

The Transmutation is Real.
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herbie
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Ex BP Golly
18 Sep 2015, 10:59 AM
Herbie is best described as a reluctant Bull.
Back on Bubblenomics he was initially very bullish, but came, I believe, to realise the damage high property prices do.

He was especially concerned for children in the future never being able to afford housing, if I remember it correctly.

His biggest fear perhaps would be best experienced by looking at Black Panthers neo fudalist transmutation rantings.

Anything you'd like to add to that Herbie?

Bear since mid 2005 - Even sold a property as a result to have a REALLY good whack in nice safe cash back then. (Though kept one too - Just in case I was wrong.)

Proved wrong in 2007 - Bought back in in early 2008. Whilst still retaining a decent whack of cash just in case I was wrong about me 'being wrong' ... :)

So in hindsight at least have come to reckon Steve Keen sounded like a bit of a Johnny Come Lately when he popped up on the radar screen crying CRASH about then - But certainly allowed for the fact he could be correct at the time - And I'd just screwed up my timing VERY badly - Both on selling AND on reluctantly buying back in (AFTER getting my arse kicked by the market moving up pretty aggressively in the interim :) )

But NOT to the point I was prepared to change my position again on his (or anyone else's) Johnny Come Lately say so - And held.


As to the other, Yep, have certainly had concerns that high housing prices weren't 'good' - Generally overall speaking. Including for the young.

But also came to develop rather even bigger concerns about the militant bear fix of a Minsky Moment - With its associated Great Depression II and possible WWIII 'n whatever - Eff them - The prices of some potential fixes are just SO high no sane person could seriously actively WANT to see them happen.

With that being the guts of it I suppose? - Except I've recently seen the market begin to start moving against me again. So have bought a bit more. Whilst still (for now anyway) retaining a significant whack of cash.

Cheers Golly ... :)
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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Chris
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peter fraser
18 Sep 2015, 09:40 AM
Like it or not we live in an economy driven by consumption (spending)

Savers are a drag on the economy and spenders benefit the economy. Housing is such an important part of that spending, governments will do almost anything to maintain that spending. Crashing the housing market is not on their agenda.

Here is an interactive chart on the US housing market - http://au.spindices.com/indices/real-estate/sp-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-index
The USA is now growing quite well because housing is almost back to the pre-gfc peak.

China is experiencing a slow down because they are transitioning from a manufacturing economy to a consumption economy. When the Chinese people begin to spend more the world will take off again, especially if that coincides with the USA and Europe also returning to retail therapy. When that happens wages will grow and we will see higher inflation along with higher interest rates. Will those higher rates crash housing and the economy - no because we will also have higher incomes.


Sounds unnervingly like the wagon with the wonky wheel is getting loaded up with even more weight.

Just means a greater mess when the wheel comes off.
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createdby
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peter fraser
18 Sep 2015, 11:12 AM
You've been left behind by reality

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/wages
Ooooooooh 56000 yuan average wage per year. Or about $12000 aussie. $230 per week. Or about $46 a day or $5 an hour for your average (not median so not representative of reality) Chinese.

Sorry for insulting the chiners reading who earn $5 an hour. You are the saviors of the world economy and you deserve more respect. /s
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Sydneyite
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createdby
18 Sep 2015, 12:37 PM
Ooooooooh 56000 yuan average wage per year. Or about $12000 aussie. $230 per week. Or about $46 a day or $5 an hour for your average (not median so not representative of reality) Chinese.

Sorry for insulting the chiners reading who earn $5 an hour. You are the saviors of the world economy and you deserve more respect. /s
You could have just conceded that your "$2 a day workers" comment was complete crap? :re:
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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