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Demographics determine house price headwinds...
Topic Started: 17 Sep 2015, 12:14 PM (2,477 Views)
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peter fraser
17 Sep 2015, 05:55 PM
Global population growth rates may not be in lock step with Australia's growth rates.
We have long been importers of people and I can't see that changing, but who knows.

The population of Africa is set to explode this century, and many of them will want to move to new countries seeking greater opportunities.
Would you not agree that its not how many people you have, but wheather you have jobs for those people.
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ThePauk
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peter fraser
17 Sep 2015, 05:55 PM
Global population growth rates may not be in lock step with Australia's growth rates.
We have long been importers of people and I can't see that changing, but who knows.

The population of Africa is set to explode this century, and many of them will want to move to new countries seeking greater opportunities.
Global population growth rate peaked in 1965 and has been declining since.

Posted Image

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_growth

Correct, we are a nation of immigrants, however you are totally ignoring our projected dramatic fall in our natural growth. Heck, you are still in denial that we have had two years of fewer babies born in OZ. Yep, fewer! You also seem to have no understanding about the 'demographic momentum' or more people living longer which is 30% of the growth to 10/11 billion.
Edited by ThePauk, 17 Sep 2015, 06:53 PM.
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peter fraser
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ThePauk
17 Sep 2015, 06:51 PM
Global population growth rate peaked in 1965 and has been declining since.

Posted Image

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_growth

Correct, we are a nation of immigrants, however you are totally ignoring our projected dramatic fall in our natural growth. Heck, you are still in denial that we have had two years of fewer babies born in OZ. Yep, fewer! You also seem to have no understanding about the 'demographic momentum' or more people living longer which is 30% of the growth to 10/11 billion.
Paul you always misinterpret growth rates.

Here are the global population projections. If the median scenario comes to pass then the population is exploding and it will stay that way for the 21st century well after we have left this planet.

Posted Image

Attached to this post:
Attachments: Global_population_projections.png (14.99 KB)
Edited by peter fraser, 17 Sep 2015, 08:28 PM.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Mallard
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Pauk why do you keep doing these threads. You've done loads and then you never address the points that are made. It makes you look like a nutter.
Collecting desperation.
Ex-Bp Golly April 2 2015. "I see with a slight overshoot -70% [fall in Sydney house prices] as being well within possibility"
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ThePauk
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Mallard
17 Sep 2015, 09:24 PM
Pauk why do you keep doing these threads. You've done loads and then you never address the points that are made. It makes you look like a nutter.
What points?
I do not disagree with what Peter posted, however he does not seem to understand where that global growth is happening or at what ages etc, like the demographic momentum.
I am sure he did not realise that peak global population growth was in 1965. Did you?
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Mallard
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ThePauk
17 Sep 2015, 09:28 PM
What points?
I do not disagree with what Peter posted, however he does not seem to understand where that global growth is happening or at what ages etc, like the demographic momentum.
I am sure he did not realise that peak global population growth was in 1965. Did you?
A. Where do you get 1965 from?

B. China's population growth has been slowing and yet their economic growth is still huge

C. Your obsession with demography when you don't understand it. Do a course online so you don't look like a bellend all the time.
Collecting desperation.
Ex-Bp Golly April 2 2015. "I see with a slight overshoot -70% [fall in Sydney house prices] as being well within possibility"
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herbie
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ThePauk
17 Sep 2015, 06:51 PM
Global population growth rate peaked in 1965 and has been declining since.

Posted Image
Hot Diggity Damn! - Global population growth rates have been declining since 1965!! And Australians' standards of livings and life expectancies and education levels and housing prices and wealth and share prices even have been increasing since then!!!

I now personally understand the secret of Australia's national prosperity over the last 50 years ... It is declining global population growth rates!



So with you continuing to predict declining global population growth rates going forward, can I safely assume Australians' standards of livings and life expectancies and education levels and housing prices and wealth and share prices will continue increasing Oh Learned Master of all things Demografix related?

Or might the thought ever enter your mind that the positive correlation between 'happy' things happening for Australians and declining global population growth rates, just mightn't necessarily be all that tight?
Edited by herbie, 17 Sep 2015, 09:42 PM.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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Loki
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herbie
17 Sep 2015, 09:38 PM
Hot Diggity Damn! - Global population growth rates have been declining since 1965!! And Australians' standards of livings and life expectancies and education levels and housing prices and wealth and share prices even have been increasing since then!!!

I now personally understand the secret of Australia's national prosperity over the last 50 years ... It is declining global population growth rates!

So with you continuing to predict declining global population growth rates going forward, can I safely assume Australians' standards of livings and life expectancies and education levels and housing prices and wealth and share prices will continue increasing Oh Learned Master of all things Demografix related?

Or might the thought ever enter your mind that the positive correlation between 'happy' things happening for Australians and declining global population growth rates, just mightn't necessarily be all that tight?
That post makes you sound like a tool.

As it happens, declining birth rates and prosperity are HIGHLY and TIGHTLY correlated. There is barely a social metric that has been more researched or is better understood.

When women receive education they (a) add to household income and (b) have less children and (c) make sure their children receive an education.

There are of course still plenty of Sky-Godder scum that want women to leave primary school and pop out 10 babies so their business model of selling overpriced houses to the unborn continues unabated. I didn't think you were one of them ... but maybe you are.

peter fraser
17 Sep 2015, 08:26 PM
Here are the global population projections. If the median scenario comes to pass then the population is exploding and it will stay that way for the 21st century well after we have left this planet.

Posted Image
Nice! Only 1/2 a child less each and the world will become that much better a place.
Edited by Loki, 17 Sep 2015, 11:10 PM.


“Talk sense to a fool and he calls you foolish.” - Euripides
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ThePauk
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Loki
It will be interesting to see how the 'demographic paradox' plays out in Africa. As it is now, even as China relax their 1 child rule, their fertility has renamed below replacement as the wealth has grown.
From a purely biological point of view, it does interest me that our survival as a species may not depend at all on rising wealth and quality of life and to me that is the most interesting thing to ponder about.
"Nice! Only 1/2 a child less each and the world will become that much better a place." - I agree 100%...

Were you aware of our fewer births over the last couple of years?
Mallard
17 Sep 2015, 09:36 PM
A. Where do you get 1965 from?

B. China's population growth has been slowing and yet their economic growth is still huge

C. Your obsession with demography when you don't understand it. Do a course online so you don't look like a bellend all the time.
A. From the data.
B. Yep, the demographic paradox.
C. Online? No, I do prefer to study Sociology on campus.
Edited by ThePauk, 17 Sep 2015, 11:19 PM.
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Loki
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ThePauk
17 Sep 2015, 11:17 PM
Loki
It will be interesting to see how the 'demographic paradox' plays out in Africa. As it is now, even as China relax their 1 child rule, their fertility has renamed below replacement as the wealth has grown.
Africa is an interesting one. Most Western commentators have written it off as hopelessly irredeemable. It is still an incredibly resource rich continent, with fertile soils and many different climates (desert,savanna, tropical, sub-tropical, Mediterranean). There is no economic pressure to modernise in those types of environments. The only real change I expect to see is North Africa as more and more oil is discovered and the population increasingly converts to Islam. That will cause a social change, but it is hard to see that as progressive.
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From a purely biological point of view, it does interest me that our survival as a species may not depend at all on rising wealth and quality of life and to me that is the most interesting thing to ponder about.
From an individuals point of view, the difference between being a billionaire or living in a mud hut is very large, but from a biological point of view, they are very close. Survival is not that difficult, and if that is as high as the bar is raised, then there is going to be a LOT more people in the world. But if we bring the other 4 billion across to the idea of prosperity beyond mere survival, then maybe we can have smaller population growth AND prosperity.
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Were you aware of our fewer births over the last couple of years?
No, but I am now. Thanks for sharing and remember "non illegitimi carborundum".


“Talk sense to a fool and he calls you foolish.” - Euripides
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