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Perth - Where to from here?; Rational evidence based discussion of Perth fundamentals
Topic Started: 17 Sep 2015, 12:22 AM (5,034 Views)
newjez
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Jake
23 Sep 2015, 09:00 AM
What did he predict, apart from a 40% fall in real Perth prices which hasn't happened, not even close.
Iron ore
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Matthew
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newjez
23 Sep 2015, 12:01 PM
Iron ore
every man and their proverbial dog could see what was going to happen with Iron Ore. Add a shit load of capacity to a historical $20/t commodity and what do you think will be the outcome?
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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The Whole Truth
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It must be very stressful to be a bull in a nation where nearly every financial indicator has been flashing red since the gfc. 7 whole years of mounting bad news, every rug pulled out one after the other. And then adding salt to the wounds, gold, the one asset they were actually bearish on turns out to have been the best one out of them all :lol
"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Stuart Mill
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Matthew
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The Whole Truth
23 Sep 2015, 01:59 PM
It must be very stressful to be a bull in a nation where nearly every financial indicator has been flashing red since the gfc. 7 whole years of mounting bad news, every rug pulled out one after the other. And then adding salt to the wounds, gold, the one asset they were actually bearish on turns out to have been the best one out of them all :lol
Gold price January 2011 - A$1,400/oz. (round numbers)
Gold price today - A$1,600/oz. (round numbers)

Cumulative inflation January 2011 - June 2015 means that an ounce of gold tracking inflation in real terms has now cost $1,556.

So you have made in the past 4 years $44 (enough for a carton of crown lager.)

You have received no dividend. You have received no rent. You have received no yield.

Your whole gain was made pre December 2010. Since then you have gone nowhere whatsoever.

If your only investment in the past 5 years has been gold you are the epitome of a financial retard.

Well done to you sir. All forum members please rise to your feet and applaud The Whole Truth. Without a doubt the dumbest prick you will ever meet.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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hidflect
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The Crunch
17 Sep 2015, 12:22 AM
Perth is an interesting area right now as it has had a tough year and there are 2 schools of thought on where it is going. The bulls say it's cheap, the bears say we're doomed so what's going on.....
"Cheap" is not what makes an investment go up in price. "Growing" is what makes a price rise. That's a classic newbie mistake.
Apple stock was not cheap at $200/share. Then it went to $500/share.
Property in Leonora is cheap. But would you buy any?

Perth needs to remember that its appeal is very, very mild compared (4th most boring in the world) to 1000 other cities as alternatives and it was really only the prospect of JOBS! (all too rare in this global deflating economy) that made people flock in. Now with jobs off the table and even locals struggling, just apply the simple barometer question:
"Is there anything on the near to mid horizon that will produce a positive change in circumstances for WA?"
And the answer is.. No. Some industries will do well. Gold mining, IT. Most are going to tank.
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Terry
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Matthew
23 Sep 2015, 04:04 PM


If your only investment in the past 5 years has been gold you are the epitome of a financial retard.

But it's a kind of dumb argument. It's almost like saying that anyone who didn't invest all of their worth into residential real estate in the main centers of Anglo-Saxondom is also a retard. It's also stupid to suggest that something needs to make a yield for it to have any investment value because of relativity. But anyway, if your investments have all lost in USD terms, that's OK. Like a lion in a safari park, you're a man of suburban Australia.
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Matthew
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Terry
23 Sep 2015, 04:32 PM
But it's a kind of dumb argument. It's almost like saying that anyone who didn't invest all of their worth into residential real estate in the main centers of Anglo-Saxondom is also a retard. It's also stupid to suggest that something needs to make a yield for it to have any investment value because of relativity. But anyway, if your investments have all lost in USD terms, that's OK. Like a lion in a safari park, you're a man of suburban Australia.
I have never told people to invest in only one asset class at all, in fact I regularly say that you should have a balance of shares, property and cash (if you can afford it). The argument is not dumb, it is sound and backed by fact and not emotion. the Whole retard struts around like a peacock making stupid statements about gold being the winner since the GFC, however since the bottom of the GFC both property and shares have outperformed him, particularly in the past 4 years of stock market and property gains against, as proven, fuck all movement in gold. In fact if you take out the A$ depreciation of the past 18 months he has gone backward.

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But anyway, if your investments have all lost in USD terms, that's OK
The war cry of the drunken fool and now you. As someone living in Australia, paid in A$ who spends in A$, whose property, shares and cash investments were all transacted in A$ and if sold settled in A$ I truly could not give a flying fuck if prices have fallen against the US$. It isn't kind of a dumb argument you are making, it is the dumbest of them all.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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deluded
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Matthew
23 Sep 2015, 07:08 PM
I have never told people to invest in only one asset class at all, in fact I regularly say that you should have a balance of shares, property and cash (if you can afford it). The argument is not dumb, it is sound and backed by fact and not emotion. the Whole retard struts around like a peacock making stupid statements about gold being the winner since the GFC, however since the bottom of the GFC both property and shares have outperformed him, particularly in the past 4 years of stock market and property gains against, as proven, fuck all movement in gold. In fact if you take out the A$ depreciation of the past 18 months he has gone backward.


The war cry of the drunken fool and now you. As someone living in Australia, paid in A$ who spends in A$, whose property, shares and cash investments were all transacted in A$ and if sold settled in A$ I truly could not give a flying fuck if prices have fallen against the US$. It isn't kind of a dumb argument you are making, it is the dumbest of them all.
But you do realise that someone looking at you from the outside could equally call you totally moronic for having all your investments denominated in AUD?

The exact argument you have made against The Whole Retard for investing into gold, can and does apply to yourself for investing into AUD assets. you too are a fucking moron. We all are, we are Australians after all.
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The Whole Truth
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You're cranky tonight mattie, that fat smelly wife of yours knock you back again?
"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Stuart Mill
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Terry
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deluded
23 Sep 2015, 08:27 PM
But you do realise that someone looking at you from the outside could equally call you totally moronic for having all your investments denominated in AUD?

The exact argument you have made against The Whole Retard for investing into gold, can and does apply to yourself for investing into AUD assets. you too are a fucking moron. We all are, we are Australians after all.
Nicely expressed.....particularly for our suburban brethren who can relate to that communication style. For a start, the average Australian suburbanite is likely to have more riding in the property sector than anyone who owns gold. Considering that the nation's wealth is wrapped up in postal digits, investment in an asset such as gold makes one "un-retarded" as it seems that the suburban perception is that owning gold is anti-status quo. The finance industry reads from a hedging and diversification book, From that position, being anti-gold is nothing more than an emotive reaction when there are plenty of assets that have probably done much worse.
Matthew
23 Sep 2015, 07:08 PM
I have never told people to invest in only one asset class at all, in fact I regularly say that you should have a balance of shares, property and cash (if you can afford it). The argument is not dumb, it is sound and backed by fact and not emotion. the Whole retard struts around like a peacock making stupid statements about gold being the winner since the GFC, however since the bottom of the GFC both property and shares have outperformed him, particularly in the past 4 years of stock market and property gains against, as proven, fuck all movement in gold. In fact if you take out the A$ depreciation of the past 18 months he has gone backward.

That's just an exercise in dick measuring. The whole property and finance industry needs people like you. It's almost like you're trained not to think, but react to whatever sparkling marbles get thrown your way and how many you scramble to pick up.
Edited by Terry, 23 Sep 2015, 09:08 PM.
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