I used to be a die hard believer in the Sydney housing bubble theory. I am no longer.; A correction in Sydney house prices is unlikely. A correction in our living standards is certain.
That set-up would suit many families (particularly extended families that may pool their money)
Oh look - we're surreptitiously back to the yellow peril narrative again. How about those Indians eh? Yes, those Indians, they sleep 20 to a room, don't they?? It'll be positively cheap for them, especially with our falling dollar!
Look out everyone, they're coming!!!!!!!!
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There is no doubt that it will be worth $2m at some time in the future (this is RBA policy).
ah yes the wealth effect, it's just like magic!
herbie
15 Sep 2015, 11:28 PM
You're always good for a giggle Frummy - I've got ta give ya that at least! ...
I know you don't take it personally Herbie - you could be a supermodel trolling between photo-shoots for all I know.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness. "Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
Oh look - we're surreptitiously back to the yellow peril narrative again. How about those Indians eh? Yes, those Indians, they sleep 20 to a room, don't they?? It'll be positively cheap for them, especially with our falling dollar!
Look out everyone, they're coming!!!!!!!!
Actually my comment wasn't directed at any particular race, ethnicity or nationality. Lots of people have extended family arrangements.
Personally I don't have any need for such a set up because no one else in my family has moved to Australia.
John Frum
15 Sep 2015, 11:36 PM
ah yes the wealth effect, it's just like magic!
It's not magic it's called a 2-3% inflation target. They won't achieve it every year but in the long run I wouldn't bet against it.
I know you don't take it personally Herbie - you could be a supermodel trolling between photo-shoots for all I know.
Now now John, don't get me going - Or I could get all teary eyed 'n feel ta start telling ya about me failed breast augmentation surgery where I've got one perfect 38 D cup and one hollow ole sac dragging on me knee on the other side ...
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer:"negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
Actually my comment wasn't directed at any particular race, ethnicity or nationality. Lots of people have extended family arrangements.
Evidence please
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It's not magic it's called a 2-3% inflation target. They won't achieve it every year but in the long run I wouldn't bet against it.
Yes we know how inflation works and how it's used as a tool by the central banks. That's one of the reasons why we're currently in this financial mess.
You know very well that I was referring to speculation when I used the 2mil figure - you're just being deliberately obtuse.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness. "Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
Yes we know how inflation works and how it's used as a tool by the central banks. That's one of the reasons why we're currently in this financial mess.
You know very well that I was referring to speculation when I used the 2mil figure - you're just being deliberately obtuse.
Evidence of what? That people have multiple generations or combined family groups at a single address?
Ok, I accept that you now agree that the price of that home will one day be $2m.
Did you see the similarly crappy house on slightly smaller block (700sqm) for sale in Balmain for $3.5m+? 3 Carieville St, Balmain
Rare but an illustration that getting land size like that comes at a premium.
Now now John, don't get me going - Or I could get all teary eyed 'n feel ta start telling ya about me failed breast augmentation surgery where I've got one perfect 38 D cup and one hollow ole sac dragging on me knee on the other side ...
Oh Herbie, stop it you tease!
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness. "Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
Evidence of what? That people have multiple generations or combined family groups at a single address?
Evidence that "extended family arrangements" are an increasing trend.
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Ok, I accept that you now agree that the price of that home will one day be $2m.
You're having trouble with this, aren't you? I clarified that I was referring to speculative behavior in my original post when mentioning the 2mil figure - I'm not the slightest bit interested in nominal price rises.
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Did you see the similarly crappy house on slightly smaller block (700sqm) for sale in Balmain for $3.5m+? 3 Carieville St, Balmain
Rare but an illustration that getting land size like that comes at a premium.
What are you assuming here - that I can't differentiate between the value of the land and the property itself?
The property you show here is near the water and close to the city - or course it's going to be worth more than 600sq meters of bushland in outer bumfuck.
But you're just time wasting here -none of what you've mentioned provides any proof that we're not in a speculative bubble - all you are doing is identifying features that make X more desirable compared to some other Y. I couldn't care less about relative differences, I'm way more interested in why X and Y are both so hideously overpriced in the first place.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness. "Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
Evidence that "extended family arrangements" are an increasing trend.
You're having trouble with this, aren't you? I clarified that I was referring to speculative behavior in my original post when mentioning the 2mil figure - I'm not the slightest bit interested in nominal price rises.
What are you assuming here - that I can't differentiate between the value of the land and the property itself?
The property you show here is near the water and close to the city - or course it's going to be worth more than 600sq meters of bushland in outer bumfuck.
But you're just time wasting here -none of what you've mentioned provides any proof that we're not in a speculative bubble - all you are doing is identifying features that make X more desirable compared to some other Y. I couldn't care less about relative differences, I'm way more interested in why X and Y are both so hideously overpriced in the first place.
I never said that extended family arrangements are an increasing trend.
Not interested in nominal price increases - interesting.
Overpriced compared to what? I acknowledge that house prices in Sydney are expensive but a speculative bubble? Now that's a stretch. We are just experiencing the normal run up after a period of relatively stable prices. Prices will stabilise again soon (maybe around February next year) and then we'll likely have another protracted flat patch. Of course if we get a significant increase in unemployment or a recession bought on by external factors we might get some pull back but these events are hard to predict.
I never said that extended family arrangements are an increasing trend.
Ok sorry i misunderstood you - so we agree this behaviour is not responsible for the current run up in prices.
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Not interested in nominal price increases - interesting.
Why would I care about a phenomenon that has little to no impact on affordability?
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Overpriced compared to what?
FFS there you go being deliberately obtuse again? Wages of course.
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no bubble ... small run up ... leveling off ... cooling down ... softening ... cyclical correction
whatevs.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness. "Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
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