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Bear Trap's Prediction; 100% guaranteed
Topic Started: 5 Sep 2015, 04:37 AM (4,143 Views)
The Whole Truth
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Rastus2
5 Sep 2015, 04:37 AM

Quote:
 

infact if IRs fall we shall get a "mother of all booms" !



Did he get it right or wrong ?

Clearly wrong. A mother of all booms would be bigger than the 100% 7 Year boom we saw across Australian capitals up to 2007, and the muted echo of that we have just witnessed in the Sydney market that failed to deliver before 08. It was just another bullshit prediction, by a sockpuppet no doubt.

If you had taken heed of it back then (excluding syd) you would be deep shit. But while the bulls here were fooled once, they have learned their lesson since, and haven't bought a single property since the gfc. Even shadow for all his postulating about sydney isn't on record buying a single property there. Why? If it was a given syd was going to boom as shadow predicted he would have put his money where his mouth was.

I have been to a seminar, I know the basic plan. You leverage up on property and when you have seen some gains you buy more, then you buy more. The bulls are not as stupid as they make out. If they stopped protesting that residential RE was a total winner they would not even look stupid.

7 years is a long to go without seeing any (real) capital gains in a game where capital gains is the desired result of the investment.
Edited by The Whole Truth, 7 Sep 2015, 09:51 AM.
"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Stuart Mill
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Shadow
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The Whole Truth
7 Sep 2015, 09:49 AM
7 years is a long to go without seeing any (real) capital gains in a game where capital gains is the desired result of the investment.
Sydney house prices have doubled over the past seven years.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
7 Sep 2015, 10:41 AM
Sydney house prices have doubled over the past seven years.
no relevence to the actual prediciton


Where did his prediction say within 7 years ?
Where did it say Sydney ?
where did it even say Houses ?


nope... it's a fail on the basic requirement that to actually claim you predicted somthing, you have to be able to identify that your prediction directly related to the events that unfolded.
Shadow
7 Sep 2015, 09:29 AM
OK, good. I'm sure BT will be glad you've calmed down now.
Unlike yourself, I was perfectly calm when I started the thread, right through it.

You rushed in to worship BT's 'prediction' without even considering the 100+ page thread where you demanded evidence of human caused climate change and nit picked your way through it. :re:

Only one person on this thread is not calm... and he seems to be wetting his pants over bt... perhaps it's you ?
Edited by Rastus2, 7 Sep 2015, 09:24 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
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Rastus2
7 Sep 2015, 09:22 PM
Only one person on this thread is not calm
Yep, the one writing all the lengthy ranting posts.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
7 Sep 2015, 10:04 PM
Yep, the one writing all the lengthy ranting posts.

I was thinking more of the love struck shady character who demands proof of others, but insists bt's non prediction was 103% correct...

I am waiting for you to detail responses to the holes in his prediction i drove a truck through :D
Edited by Rastus2, 7 Sep 2015, 10:31 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
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Rastus2
7 Sep 2015, 10:30 PM
I am waiting for you to detail responses to the holes in his prediction i drove a truck through :D
I didn't see any holes.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
7 Sep 2015, 11:41 PM
I didn't see any holes.
Oh good.

Then you should have mo problem giving me details i managed to miss with bt's wording of the prediction...


Where did his prediction give a time frame ?
Where did it say Sydney ?
where did it even say Houses ?
What is a 'leap' exacactly for interest rates ?
Where did he quantify boom ?

If you want to highlight where he detailed those specifics at the time of his prediction, we can better validate his prediction... unfortunatly, bt was unable to do so when he made the actual prediction...
Edited by Rastus2, 8 Sep 2015, 12:38 AM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
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Rastus2
8 Sep 2015, 12:37 AM
Then you should have mo problem giving me details i managed to miss with bt's wording of the prediction...
BT is the prophet, not me.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Matthew
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foxbat
5 Sep 2015, 03:19 PM
You are saying this so perfectly, Foxbat will be proud when he hears.

Post mining boom is here.

So well put, your quote should be in economic text books for all to read, a classic explanation of what happens when an economy catches Dutch disease then the price of the commodities goes below the cost of production.

In the vernacular (simple Australian) put your head between your legs and kiss your arse goodbye, because your fucked.

Peter





Well ok but what about since 2006/ 2007??

And PLEASE adjust for inflation as some people can not understand real terms.

I am sure you understand the difference even though you keep stating nominal.

Peter
1) You clearly don't understand Jim's point
2) You clearly don't understand real terms.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
8 Sep 2015, 12:41 AM
BT is the prophet, not me.

so you say, but since you have already made the claim that his prediction is 103% correct, you must have a basis of that.

I assume you read aspects of his wording that the rest of us could not manage... obviously not.

So we are agreed he did not

give a time frame
give a location
give an asset class,
explain just what a 'leap' in interest rates was
or quantify a boom.


"I shall 100 pc guarantee there shall be no crash if IRs do not leap.. infact if IRs fall we shall get a "mother of all booms" !"

good... well I read the prediction as

If IR do not do 'leap' (up or down was not identified), somthing shall not crash (no details given of what).
If IR fall, we shall get some kind of large boom in some asset (I assume not just some sound), at some time !

:bl:
how is that 103% correct ?
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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