Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
Bear Trap's Prediction; 100% guaranteed
Topic Started: 5 Sep 2015, 04:37 AM (4,144 Views)
newjez
Member Avatar


Jimbo
5 Sep 2015, 05:41 AM
UK property is worth slightly more than its 2007 peak and the exchange rate is moving in your favour.

But (big but), if you had made the move in 2007 (as I did), you would have sold at the UK peak, bought in below the Perth peak and got a near peak exchange rate ($2.50).

You would have also walked into a strange environment where you interviewed your prospective employers to see which one you liked the best and would pay you the most.

I had three jobs in the first six months because I kept being poached for more money. I am not saying that I am that great. It's just that there were far more positions to be filled in engineering than there were applicants to fill them.

Two years ago, many of the EPC's had green as grass graduates running some of their biggest projects. At KOM's, we weren't sure whether to serve coffee and biscuits or warm milk and rusks.

By moving to WA in 2007, I got to take part in the biggest boom in the states history. I also missed out on the UK recession.

Your dream Aussie property may have dropped in price against the Pound, but I am afraid that you may have missed out on the free money party that has been the Perth of the last ten years.



Back to this, I'm not sure that I'd call a 40% rise in the Brighton market since 2007 trivial.

http://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_report.htm?location=brighton&startmonth=06&startyear=2007&endmonth=06&endyear=2015

But we would have considered it. Sadly I was only 1 year into remission from NHL, so we weren't making plans to do anything. I had private health and insurance.

2008 I was made redundant, but by then nothing was selling.

You make the best call you can, and you put your family first. We're not dissimilar.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Shadow
Member Avatar
Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

zaph
6 Sep 2015, 06:12 PM
As usual you are quite liberal with the truth.
How so?
Rastus2
6 Sep 2015, 04:54 PM
I can see 3 capitals that did not exactly boom after his prediction
Price rose nationally and boomed in the two biggest cities. Brisbane is starting to take off as well.

BT didn't put any timeframe on it, based on what you've quoted. He said there would be a boom after rates fell, and there was a boom in at least two cities already, with more to come.

BT was 103% correct.
Edited by Shadow, 6 Sep 2015, 09:15 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Rastus2
Member Avatar


Shadow
6 Sep 2015, 09:13 PM
How so?

Price rose nationally and boomed in the two biggest cities. Brisbane is starting to take off as well.

BT didn't put any timeframe on it, based on what you've quoted. He said there would be a boom after rates fell, and there was a boom in at least two cities already, with more to come.

BT was 103% correct.
I am glad you mentioned the lack of detail bt gave...

Remember i did ask him for more detail...

Based on the delail he actually gave... the exact words, , if gold had boomed, he could claim to be correct, if oil had boomed, the sharemarket, or even if only dubbo property boomed 50 years later with the rest of australian property flat, he could claim to be correct.

Some prophecy :re:

Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Shadow
Member Avatar
Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Rastus2
6 Sep 2015, 10:11 PM
Based on the delail he actually gave... the exact words, , if gold had boomed, he could claim to be correct, if oil had boomed, the sharemarket, or even if only dubbo property boomed 50 years later with the rest of australian property flat, he could claim to be correct.
You're really clutching at straws now.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Rastus2
Member Avatar


Shadow
6 Sep 2015, 10:12 PM
You're really clutching at straws now.
Not at all.. it was you who mentioned how broad bt's prophecy was with regards to time.

It was also broad in asset class, location of property (assuming he meant property), etc ect.

He got the no crash right... the boom, well since he did not give details, it means very little...
Edited by Rastus2, 6 Sep 2015, 10:43 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Shadow
Member Avatar
Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Rastus2
6 Sep 2015, 10:42 PM
He got the no crash right... the boom, well since he did not give details, it means very little...
It means enough for you to start a whole thread about it. And I'm glad you did, for it has revealed BT to have almost godlike powers.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Rastus2
Member Avatar


Shadow
6 Sep 2015, 11:31 PM
It means enough for you to start a whole thread about it. And I'm glad you did, for it has revealed BT to have almost godlike powers.

well you might worship him as a god,

in reality his prediciton was not exactly earth shattering, let alone full of details

Time frame - none

Asset class - none

Assuming he meant property - location of property - none

What a boom consists of - no detail

what is a 'leap' for Interest Rates - no detail


All this despite me asking him to give us details if he wanted to make a prophecy of any value...

I did, initially think he got the no crash thing right, but looking at it now (thanks to you reminding me he had no time frame on it)... if property (assuming that is the asset class he cited) ever crashes in the future without interest rates 'leaping' ... he was wrong :D


So, in summary.. not a convincing performance, kind of like prediciton that there will be a boom in somthing, somewhere, some time... but giving no detail... yawn
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Shadow
Member Avatar
Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Rastus2
7 Sep 2015, 12:18 AM
So, in summary.. not a convincing performance
I think he said his IPs are all in Sydney. He has probably made a fortune from his prediction. Sounds like you're just angry you didn't follow his advice.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Rastus2
Member Avatar


Shadow
7 Sep 2015, 08:36 AM
I think he said his IPs are all in Sydney. He has probably made a fortune from his prediction. Sounds like you're just angry you didn't follow his advice.
why the abuse ?

I am not angry at anyone... indeed i asked him to clarify and quantify his prediciton so we could measure it against the outcome down the track... he ignored my request so the prediciton is the one we have.

if IR does not leap, something will not crash, if IR drops, a boom of somthing will happen some time

really ? your impressed with this ?

You have spent more than 100 pages in another thread trying to say that NASA are wrong in their claim 200+ associations and orginzations agree with their climate change proposition...
You insist there is no consensus on the proposition, you insist the evidence is lacking and have thrown what you consider as proof that the claim is wrong.

Yet here, where it comes to evidence, you show none of those basic requirements, you accept a 'prediction' that :

has no assset class
has no time frame
and has no qualification of what a crash and what a boom is.



So the impressiveness of the prediciton is very weak...
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Shadow
Member Avatar
Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Rastus2
7 Sep 2015, 09:13 AM
I am not angry at anyone
OK, good. I'm sure BT will be glad you've calmed down now.
Edited by Shadow, 7 Sep 2015, 09:30 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
ZetaBoards - Free Forum Hosting
Free Forums with no limits on posts or members.
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy