It has taken 4.5 years for prices to rise in most of australia..
Anyone who bought immediatly after his prediction could have postpones for years and been ahead... even then, sydney and melbourne were the select winners.
Your claims are destroyed by the official data, which supports bear trap.
The first interest rate cut was not until November 2011.
ABS data shows that the 8 city house prices began to rise with the FIRST quarter of 2012 ie immediately following the first interest rate cut.
The 8 city house price index has risen in every quarter, except one, since the first interest rate cut.
Prices are up 23% to March 2015 from Dec 2011, to which yield (~4% pa) needs to be added. CPI is up only 7% over the same period.
Yes, there is total consensus that the ABS Residential Property Price weighted average 8 city price index rose in the very first quarter (Mar 2012) following the first RBA interest rate cut (Nov 2011) and has risen in every quarter, except one, ever since and at Mar 2015 stood 23% higher than the Dec 2011 quarter level with a further rise about to be announced by the ABS.
The charts you posted are taken from the unrevised and now defunct old established property price indices. These have all been discarded and superceded by the Residential Property Price indices.
Yes, there is total consensus that the ABS Residential Property Price weighted average 8 city price index rose in the very first quarter (Mar 2012) following the first RBA interest rate cut (Nov 2011) and has risen in every quarter, except one, ever since and at Mar 2015 stood 23% higher than the Dec 2011 quarter level with a further rise about to be announced by the ABS.
The charts you posted are taken from the unrevised and now defunct old established property price indices. These have all bben discarded and superceded by the Residential Property Price indices.
They were the charts posted by abs at the time, and consensus was they were correct at the time.
You can spin it as you like, the abs charts of the cities clealy show a decline in the 1st quater...
Residential property prices, Weighted average of eight capital cities - Quarterly % change
Yes, and the ABS Residential property price index, 8 cap cities, has risen 23% to March 2015 since the first RBA cut, more than three times the rate of CPI over the same period. On the 22nd of this month ABS will publish the figures for the June 2015 quarter further emphasising just how right Bear Trap was with his prediction.
Rastus2
6 Sep 2015, 04:35 PM
They were the charts posted by abs at the time, and consensus was they were correct at the time.
You can spin it as you like, the abs charts of the cities clealy show a decline in the 1st quater...
Those figures issued at the time have been admitted by the ABS to have been wrong and they have revised them. You can find the updated Established Property Price Indices (which are no longer led with by the ABS) here (published in the latest ABS release) and they show a very similar result to the Residential Property price indices with a 23% rise to March 2015 and with only a single quarter showing a fall since the RBA first cut rates.
There was no consensus that the figures you posted were "correct at the time". The ABS made no such claim and nor did anyone else. The ABS made great play of the fact that at the time of publication they were "preliminary" estimates which were subject to updating. They have done the updating and the fall from Dec 2011 to Mar 2012 for the 8 cap city average has been eliminated by the revisions - see the xls link above.
Yes, and the ABS Residential property price index, 8 cap cities, has risen 23% to March 2015 since the first RBA cut, more than three times the rate of CPI over the same period. On the 22nd of this month ABS will publish the figures for the June 2015 quarter further emphasising just how right Bear Trap was with his prediction.
He predicted a boom 4.5 years ago and much of australia is yet to actually see that boom itself despite the cuts being dramatic and ongoing.
I asked him to elaborate on his prediction, he declined ... if he had meant 8 capital cities, he should have stated so, or perhaps just sydney and melbourne ... australia does not simply consist of those 2 or 8.. indeed there are many more
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