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Bear Trap's Prediction; 100% guaranteed
Topic Started: 5 Sep 2015, 04:37 AM (4,145 Views)
Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Rastus2
6 Sep 2015, 12:07 AM
It took a long time for this boom of his to start
Prices boomed a few months after rates fell. BT was right.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Strindberg
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Rastus2
6 Sep 2015, 12:07 AM

His prediction was feb 2011, rates fell in 2011..


It has taken 4.5 years for prices to rise in most of australia..

Anyone who bought immediatly after his prediction could have postpones for years and been ahead... even then, sydney and melbourne were the select winners.
Your claims are destroyed by the official data, which supports bear trap.

The first interest rate cut was not until November 2011.

ABS data shows that the 8 city house prices began to rise with the FIRST quarter of 2012 ie immediately following the first interest rate cut.

The 8 city house price index has risen in every quarter, except one, since the first interest rate cut.

Prices are up 23% to March 2015 from Dec 2011, to which yield (~4% pa) needs to be added. CPI is up only 7% over the same period.

ABS 8 city indices

Dec 2011 99.4
Mar 2012 100.0
Mar 2015 122.1

CPI

Dec 2011 99.8
Mar 2015 106.8
Edited by Strindberg, 6 Sep 2015, 11:02 AM.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Rastus2
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Strindberg
6 Sep 2015, 10:55 AM
Your claims are destroyed by the official data, which supports bear trap.

The first interest rate cut was not until November 2011.

ABS data shows that the 8 city house prices began to rise with the FIRST quarter of 2012 ie immediately following the first interest rate cut.

The 8 city house price index has risen in every quarter, except one, since the first interest rate cut.

Prices are up 23% to March 2015 from Dec 2011, to which yield (~4% pa) needs to be added. CPI is up only 7% over the same period.

ABS 8 city indices

Dec 2011 99.4
Mar 2012 100.0
Mar 2015 122.1

CPI

Dec 2011 99.8
Mar 2015 106.8


Yeah, sure

Posted Image

Posted Image



Do you have a consensus on that ? :D
Edited by Rastus2, 6 Sep 2015, 02:09 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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zaph
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Shadow
6 Sep 2015, 09:14 AM
Prices boomed a few months after rates fell. BT was right.
As usual you are quite liberal with the truth.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

zaph
6 Sep 2015, 02:42 PM
As usual you are quite liberal with the truth.
How so? You can quite easily see the boom kicking off in Q1 2012, the quarter immediately after rates started falling.

Every single quarter, except one, has been UP since rates fell. BT was 102% correct. Prices boomed after rates fell.

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/allprimarymainfeatures/D096F22C811A8AF2CA257CD60017CB90

Residential property prices, Weighted average of eight capital cities - Quarterly % change
Posted Image
Posted Image
Edited by Shadow, 6 Sep 2015, 02:55 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Strindberg
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Rastus2
6 Sep 2015, 02:08 PM


Yeah, sure


Do you have a consensus on that ? :D
Yes, there is total consensus that the ABS Residential Property Price weighted average 8 city price index rose in the very first quarter (Mar 2012) following the first RBA interest rate cut (Nov 2011) and has risen in every quarter, except one, ever since and at Mar 2015 stood 23% higher than the Dec 2011 quarter level with a further rise about to be announced by the ABS.

The charts you posted are taken from the unrevised and now defunct old established property price indices. These have all been discarded and superceded by the Residential Property Price indices.
Edited by Strindberg, 6 Sep 2015, 04:38 PM.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Rastus2
Member Avatar


Strindberg
6 Sep 2015, 04:28 PM
Yes, there is total consensus that the ABS Residential Property Price weighted average 8 city price index rose in the very first quarter (Mar 2012) following the first RBA interest rate cut (Nov 2011) and has risen in every quarter, except one, ever since and at Mar 2015 stood 23% higher than the Dec 2011 quarter level with a further rise about to be announced by the ABS.

The charts you posted are taken from the unrevised and now defunct old established property price indices. These have all bben discarded and superceded by the Residential Property Price indices.
They were the charts posted by abs at the time, and consensus was they were correct at the time.

You can spin it as you like, the abs charts of the cities clealy show a decline in the 1st quater...
Edited by Rastus2, 6 Sep 2015, 04:36 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Strindberg
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Shadow
6 Sep 2015, 02:48 PM
How so? You can quite easily see the boom kicking off in Q1 2012, the quarter immediately after rates started falling.

Every single quarter, except one, has been UP since rates fell. BT was 102% correct. Prices boomed after rates fell.

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/allprimarymainfeatures/D096F22C811A8AF2CA257CD60017CB90

Residential property prices, Weighted average of eight capital cities - Quarterly % change
Posted Image
Posted Image
Yes, and the ABS Residential property price index, 8 cap cities, has risen 23% to March 2015 since the first RBA cut, more than three times the rate of CPI over the same period. On the 22nd of this month ABS will publish the figures for the June 2015 quarter further emphasising just how right Bear Trap was with his prediction.
Rastus2
6 Sep 2015, 04:35 PM
They were the charts posted by abs at the time, and consensus was they were correct at the time.

You can spin it as you like, the abs charts of the cities clealy show a decline in the 1st quater...
Those figures issued at the time have been admitted by the ABS to have been wrong and they have revised them. You can find the updated Established Property Price Indices (which are no longer led with by the ABS) here (published in the latest ABS release) and they show a very similar result to the Residential Property price indices with a 23% rise to March 2015 and with only a single quarter showing a fall since the RBA first cut rates.

There was no consensus that the figures you posted were "correct at the time". The ABS made no such claim and nor did anyone else. The ABS made great play of the fact that at the time of publication they were "preliminary" estimates which were subject to updating. They have done the updating and the fall from Dec 2011 to Mar 2012 for the 8 cap city average has been eliminated by the revisions - see the xls link above.

Edited by Strindberg, 6 Sep 2015, 04:55 PM.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Rastus2
Member Avatar


Strindberg
6 Sep 2015, 04:37 PM
Yes, and the ABS Residential property price index, 8 cap cities, has risen 23% to March 2015 since the first RBA cut, more than three times the rate of CPI over the same period. On the 22nd of this month ABS will publish the figures for the June 2015 quarter further emphasising just how right Bear Trap was with his prediction.
He predicted a boom 4.5 years ago and much of australia is yet to actually see that boom itself despite the cuts being dramatic and ongoing.

I asked him to elaborate on his prediction, he declined ... if he had meant 8 capital cities, he should have stated so, or perhaps just sydney and melbourne ... australia does not simply consist of those 2 or 8.. indeed there are many more

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_towns_in_Australia
Indeed, one could argue he did not mention house price boom, so perhaps he meant gold... :D

Do you consider perth to have boomed ?

I can see 3 capitals that did not exactly boom after his prediction... hobart, yet again, flopped


Posted Image

Edit. Looking at that excel link you gave, the 1st quater of 2012 was flat, not up.
Shadow
6 Sep 2015, 09:14 AM
Prices boomed a few months after rates fell. BT was right.
Defined boomed ... i would call a boom huge.. prices started a slow rise many months after rates fell from already low rates.... hardly a boom.


Edited by Rastus2, 6 Sep 2015, 05:17 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
zaph
Default APF Avatar


Shadow
6 Sep 2015, 02:48 PM
How so? You can quite easily see the boom kicking off in Q1 2012, the quarter immediately after rates started falling.

Every single quarter, except one, has been UP since rates fell. BT was 102% correct. Prices boomed after rates fell.

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/allprimarymainfeatures/D096F22C811A8AF2CA257CD60017CB90

Residential property prices, Weighted average of eight capital cities - Quarterly % change
Posted Image
Posted Image
As usual you are quite liberal with the truth.
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