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Bear Trap's Prediction; 100% guaranteed
Topic Started: 5 Sep 2015, 04:37 AM (4,142 Views)
Rastus2
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Anyone remember this prediction ?


Posted 24 Feb 2011, 08:13 PM in Australian Property Forum by Bear Trap

Quote:
 

I shall 100 pc guarantee there shall be no crash if IRs do not leap.. infact if IRs fall we shall get a "mother of all booms" !


Well it's been 4 1/2 years
He made no specific mention of Sydney or Melbourne
Interest rates fell and kept falling since then...

Sure, we got no crash,

However, in most cities in Australia, we got no boom .. (indeed, many mining towns are well down).

72% of the population lives outside of Sydney and Melbourne Cities.

What do people think ?

Did he get it right or wrong ?

Edited by Rastus2, 5 Sep 2015, 04:40 AM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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newjez
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Rastus2
5 Sep 2015, 04:37 AM
Anyone remember this prediction ?


Posted 24 Feb 2011, 08:13 PM in Australian Property Forum by Bear Trap




Well it's been 4 1/2 years
He made no specific mention of Sydney or Melbourne
Interest rates fell and kept falling since then...

Sure, we got no crash,

However, in most cities in Australia, we got no boom .. (indeed, many mining towns are well down).

72% of the population lives outside of Sydney and Melbourne Cities.

What do people think ?

Did he get it right or wrong ?
Depends on where you live.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Jimbo
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newjez
5 Sep 2015, 05:03 AM
Depends on where you live.
UK property is worth slightly more than its 2007 peak and the exchange rate is moving in your favour.

But (big but), if you had made the move in 2007 (as I did), you would have sold at the UK peak, bought in below the Perth peak and got a near peak exchange rate ($2.50).

You would have also walked into a strange environment where you interviewed your prospective employers to see which one you liked the best and would pay you the most.

I had three jobs in the first six months because I kept being poached for more money. I am not saying that I am that great. It's just that there were far more positions to be filled in engineering than there were applicants to fill them.

Two years ago, many of the EPC's had green as grass graduates running some of their biggest projects. At KOM's, we weren't sure whether to serve coffee and biscuits or warm milk and rusks.

By moving to WA in 2007, I got to take part in the biggest boom in the states history. I also missed out on the UK recession.

Your dream Aussie property may have dropped in price against the Pound, but I am afraid that you may have missed out on the free money party that has been the Perth of the last ten years.



Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

Rastus2
5 Sep 2015, 04:37 AM
Anyone remember this prediction ?


Posted 24 Feb 2011, 08:13 PM in Australian Property Forum by Bear Trap




Well it's been 4 1/2 years
He made no specific mention of Sydney or Melbourne
Interest rates fell and kept falling since then...

Sure, we got no crash,

However, in most cities in Australia, we got no boom .. (indeed, many mining towns are well down).

72% of the population lives outside of Sydney and Melbourne Cities.

What do people think ?

Did he get it right or wrong ?
Like most predictions he got it partially right and partially wrong.

Just like a person that predicts that a ship will sink if kept on it original course.

If people listen to him the ship may be saved, if in the case of the Titanic the captain chooses not to listen, well you get the rest.

Peter

http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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stubby
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The Great Sideways continues in my neck of the woods (Brisbane), just as I thought it would.

:lol :lol :lol
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

BearTrap
 
I shall 100 pc guarantee there shall be no crash if IRs do not leap.. infact if IRs fall we shall get a "mother of all booms" !
Good call. Sydney and Melbourne already booming. Brisbane starting to take off, and then it will be time for Perth and Adelaide. Spot on about 'no crash' too. Well played BearTrap.

After rates started falling, prices increased as follows according to RP Data since 2012...

Sydney 51%
Melbourne 33%
Brisbane 14%
Perth 13%
Adelaide 10%
Edited by Shadow, 5 Sep 2015, 11:53 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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newjez
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Jimbo
5 Sep 2015, 05:41 AM
UK property is worth slightly more than its 2007 peak and the exchange rate is moving in your favour.

But (big but), if you had made the move in 2007 (as I did), you would have sold at the UK peak, bought in below the Perth peak and got a near peak exchange rate ($2.50).

You would have also walked into a strange environment where you interviewed your prospective employers to see which one you liked the best and would pay you the most.

I had three jobs in the first six months because I kept being poached for more money. I am not saying that I am that great. It's just that there were far more positions to be filled in engineering than there were applicants to fill them.

Two years ago, many of the EPC's had green as grass graduates running some of their biggest projects. At KOM's, we weren't sure whether to serve coffee and biscuits or warm milk and rusks.

By moving to WA in 2007, I got to take part in the biggest boom in the states history. I also missed out on the UK recession.

Your dream Aussie property may have dropped in price against the Pound, but I am afraid that you may have missed out on the free money party that has been the Perth of the last ten years.



No, should have moved in 2002/2003. Big mistake financially. But I'd be married to someone else now. Such is life.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Foxy
Member Avatar
Zero is coming...

Jimbo
5 Sep 2015, 05:41 AM
UK property is worth slightly more than its 2007 peak and the exchange rate is moving in your favour.

But (big but), if you had made the move in 2007 (as I did), you would have sold at the UK peak, bought in below the Perth peak and got a near peak exchange rate ($2.50).

You would have also walked into a strange environment where you interviewed your prospective employers to see which one you liked the best and would pay you the most.

I had three jobs in the first six months because I kept being poached for more money. I am not saying that I am that great. It's just that there were far more positions to be filled in engineering than there were applicants to fill them.

Two years ago, many of the EPC's had green as grass graduates running some of their biggest projects. At KOM's, we weren't sure whether to serve coffee and biscuits or warm milk and rusks.

By moving to WA in 2007, I got to take part in the biggest boom in the states history. I also missed out on the UK recession.

Your dream Aussie property may have dropped in price against the Pound, but I am afraid that you may have missed out on the free money party that has been the Perth of the last ten years.



You are saying this so perfectly, Foxbat will be proud when he hears.

Post mining boom is here.

So well put, your quote should be in economic text books for all to read, a classic explanation of what happens when an economy catches Dutch disease then the price of the commodities goes below the cost of production.

In the vernacular (simple Australian) put your head between your legs and kiss your arse goodbye, because your fucked.

Peter




Shadow
5 Sep 2015, 11:44 AM
Good call. Sydney and Melbourne already booming. Brisbane starting to take off, and then it will be time for Perth and Adelaide. Spot on about 'no crash' too. Well played BearTrap.

After rates started falling, prices increased as follows according to RP Data since 2012...

Sydney 51%
Melbourne 33%
Brisbane 14%
Perth 13%
Adelaide 10%
Well ok but what about since 2006/ 2007??

And PLEASE adjust for inflation as some people can not understand real terms.

I am sure you understand the difference even though you keep stating nominal.

Peter
Edited by Foxy, 5 Sep 2015, 03:21 PM.
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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Rastus2
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Shadow
5 Sep 2015, 11:44 AM
Good call. Sydney and Melbourne already booming. Brisbane starting to take off, and then it will be time for Perth and Adelaide. Spot on about 'no crash' too. Well played BearTrap.

After rates started falling, prices increased as follows according to RP Data since 2012...

Sydney 51%
Melbourne 33%
Brisbane 14%
Perth 13%
Adelaide 10%

His prediction was feb 2011, rates fell in 2011..


It has taken 4.5 years for prices to rise in most of australia..

Anyone who bought immediatly after his prediction could have postpones for years and been ahead... even then, sydney and melbourne were the select winners.

I did give him the chance to elaborate on his prediction so he could have limited it to sydney and melbourne ... he did not.

Posted Image

It took a long time for this boom of his to start and many areas missed out for years.... even after the rates dropped 2011 there was hardly a boom for ages...

You conviently cherry pick a date when the market had slumped to claim a rise... this was well after he had made his prediction and hardly valid...
Edited by Rastus2, 6 Sep 2015, 12:08 AM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Ex BP Golly
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Rastus2
6 Sep 2015, 12:07 AM

Posted Image
Tasmanians ignored again. Sheesh!
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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