Oh dearie me could it be that Perth is not gonna crash after all the weeping and wailing of the Perth bears claiming 40% price drops and other such silly nonsense.
All these years of throwing rent money down the drain that could have had a mortgage well paid down just in time to enjoy the catch up to normal price growth which has gotta be just around the corner.
Actually, whats just around the corner is increased supply and less demand as the economy craters.
Although, we know that economic fundamentals like that dont figure in Skamenomics.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Actually, whats just around the corner is increased supply and less demand as the economy craters.
Although, we know that economic fundamentals like that dont figure in Skamenomics.
Yet I continue to be right and you continue to throw your money down the drain on rent. There is still no crash Veritas.
When are you gonna give up believing in this silly crash nonsense?
Why on earth would the people of Perth with their good wages, low unemployment, great prospects, etc sell their houses at huge discounts? Seriously think about it - would you sell your house in a market that is almost a decade in stagnation?
There is a stand off in the market and household formation rates have been at record lows for almost a decade how can you not see what is coming. In a market that is used to decades of growth at 8-9% pa and has seen almost a decade of no growth, it does not take a rocket scientist to see which way the wind is gonna blow?
I will go with Skamenomics over Jimbo-long-odds any day.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Oh dearie me could it be that Perth is not gonna crash after all the weeping and wailing of the Perth bears claiming 40% price drops and other such silly nonsense.
All these years of throwing rent money down the drain that could have had a mortgage well paid down just in time to enjoy the catch up to normal price growth which has gotta be just around the corner.
Probably more to do with the 15 and 17 million dollar property that just sold. They tend to twist things. I expect it will drop again soon. What will you crow about then?
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
Actually, whats just around the corner is increased supply and less demand as the economy craters.
Although, we know that economic fundamentals like that dont figure in Skamenomics.
For house prices to really move down in a big way we need unemployment to rise substantially high 7% range heading to into 8 would be a good start. That would kick start price declines. To get any meaningful declines such as 30-40% we need to head for 10% or higher coupled with a hit to the states economy other then mining.
I can see price declines of perhaps up to 10% due to over supply and slower demand but beyond this I do not think you will see larger falls.
We would really need to see China implode to crater the WA economy and see mass unemployment, even then I'm not sure it would be enough as so few workers as a % of the economy would be affected.
I also think Australia is through the worst of the economic slowdown and we will see things gradually improve over 2016 as the economy rebalances away from mining and back into services, tourism, manufacturing and others due to the dollar returning to long term norms. So certainly WA will be slower due to mining, but other sectors which employ far more people are picking up, hence why unemployment has remained relatively low. This trend will accelerate over 2016/2017.
WA is set for lower growth, but more sustainable. Lower incomes but also lower prices for most items as the economy moves away from high wages and the mining sector driving inflation. Things will return to similar levels prior to the mining boom, slower but also better in many ways.
For house prices to really move down in a big way we need unemployment to rise substantially high 7% range heading to into 8 would be a good start. That would kick start price declines. To get any meaningful declines such as 30-40% we need to head for 10% or higher coupled with a hit to the states economy other then mining.
I can see price declines of perhaps up to 10% due to over supply and slower demand but beyond this I do not think you will see larger falls.
So you obviously have a basic working model to quantify this or are you just separating the hairs between your buttock cheeks?
Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.
Forum Rules:
The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.
Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.
Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.
This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.
Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ
Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy