I still think your call is good. If not October, then definitely for Christmas. What a wonderful gift that would be!
ohh yes splendid, I'll think I'll decorate my tree with a few miniature model Investment Properties...And lashings of gold trinkets!
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness. "Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
If there was a 'flood of capital' coming in now our dollar would be not be getting pulverised to the extent that it is.
Considering the trouble economists are having picking the bottom with both AUD and commodity prices at the moment, it's likely that potential overseas investors will be wary of catching a falling knife
The dollar is getting hammered due to events in China and subsequent potential effect on Australia. The primary driver of the declining dollar is the reduced capital expenditure on mining investment, which was primarily funded by off shore money. By a flood of capital, I mean flood directed at Australian property which is only a tiny fraction of the overall capital outlay. The massive outlays for the mining investment boom dwarf capital inflows for property, overseas investment could increase by 500% and still be only a fraction of mining investment of years past. Hence why the dollar is falling even though capital inflows to our property market are increasing.
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really? To me the provision of a lower trading range for the Yuan by the CCP signals a concert move to cut down on capital flight. They'll be knocking on Canberra's door as we speak.
How much as the Yuan trading range fallen? How much as the Australian dollar fallen in the past year. The Aussie is down 40% vs the US dollar and the Chinese Yuan is down 3.5% vs the US dollar in the new trading band. Their is your answer genius
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Typical yellow peril spruiker speak, not worth dignifying with a response.
No it is reality, I do not fear the Chinese or Asian buyers. As an a developer I welcome it but as a local living here it is likely not healthy for the long term benefit of the nation.
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Flood! tidal wave! Tsunami! Help!!!!!!!
The flawed assumption you and other investors in our housing market keep making is that the RBA/Government will continue to have all the necessary regulatory and monetary firepower to sustain lower interest rates to keep valuations high. They pay scant regard for how precipitous the situation really is right now.
This is all about to change.
No, you're ignorance is bliss. I have talked a number of times in recent weeks about the threat of rising interest rates. As the US increases interest rates which I expect them to do so in the coming months it will put further downward pressure on our dollar. Inflation here will rise and the RBA will come under pressure to support the dollar and containing rising inflation within its 2-3% band over the coming 12-24 months.
I am well aware of what may infold and make preparations best I can to cover these potential outcomes as im sure most astute investors/developers do.
You sir need a dose of humility and perhaps step down of that high horse you are riding on.
The dollar is getting hammered due to events in China and subsequent potential effect on Australia. The primary driver of the declining dollar is the reduced capital expenditure on mining investment, which was primarily funded by off shore money. By a flood of capital, I mean flood directed at Australian property which is only a tiny fraction of the overall capital outlay. The massive outlays for the mining investment boom dwarf capital inflows for property, overseas investment could increase by 500% and still be only a fraction of mining investment of years past. Hence why the dollar is falling even though capital inflows to our property market are increasing.
How much as the Yuan trading range fallen? How much as the Australian dollar fallen in the past year. The Aussie is down 40% vs the US dollar and the Chinese Yuan is down 3.5% vs the US dollar in the new trading band. Their is your answer genius
No it is reality, I do not fear the Chinese or Asian buyers. As an a developer I welcome it but as a local living here it is likely not healthy for the long term benefit of the nation.
No, you're ignorance is bliss. I have talked a number of times in recent weeks about the threat of rising interest rates. As the US increases interest rates which I expect them to do so in the coming months it will put further downward pressure on our dollar. Inflation here will rise and the RBA will come under pressure to support the dollar and containing rising inflation within its 2-3% band over the coming 12-24 months.
I am well aware of what may infold and make preparations best I can to cover these potential outcomes as im sure most astute investors/developers do.
You sir need a dose of humility and perhaps step down of that high horse you are riding on.
Sounds more like hope mike.
The world has deemed that we are no longer a fit place to invest their cash, but the hordes will buy our houses? Doesn't make sense. A few bods like me will take advantage of the situation. But that will be a drop in the ocean.
Currency movements are more about belief than fact. The market believes that the US Fed will raise rates so the USD has strengthened. The Fed haven't done anything though.
A strong economy will have a strong currency, but a strong currency doesn't always mean a strong economy.
I don't take much notice of headline economic indicators though. If they were that indicative, we would know about recessions in advance.
What people tend to forget, is that prior to every recession, there is always low unemployment, decent pay, strong consumer spending and all of the other things we assume mean that an economy is in rude health. The mistake we always make is to assume that this is going to continue forever.
Mike takes these indicators on face value and believes that they prove an economy has become bullet proof. The better the numbers, the less likely that a recession is just around the corner.
But history shows that the best numbers always come right before the recession.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
Mike takes these indicators on face value and believes that they prove an economy has become bullet proof. The better the numbers, the less likely that a recession is just around the corner.
But history shows that the best numbers always come right before the recession.
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But history shows that the best numbers always come right before the recession.
Is that right, pity long term data disagrees with you're view point.
In not one of the 11 US recessions can I find better GDP growth figures just prior to the recession then at the start or middle of that expansionary period.
In fact the data supports the complete opposite to what you state. GDP growth is strongest at the start of a recovery or during the middle years of that expansionary growth period. Each cycle shows in almost complete unison that a recession is proceeded by at least 1-2 slowing quarters of GDP growth. In nearly every expansion the best growth was 2 years prior to the recession.
Hardly right before a recession. Be nice if you use some fact to support such an outlandish statement with no bearing on economic reality or history. Some times Jimbo you come out with some pearlers and this is one of them.
How much as the Yuan trading range fallen? How much as the Australian dollar fallen in the past year. The Aussie is down 40% vs the US dollar and the Chinese Yuan is down 3.5% vs the US dollar in the new trading band. Their is your answer genius
And the Vietnamese dong has fallen 5% against USD. Treating all currencies the same in trading terms is kind of Mickey Mouse, genius or sub-genius.
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