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The US economy looks like it's getting even stronger
Topic Started: 3 Sep 2015, 02:34 AM (4,538 Views)
Poontang
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http://www.dentresearch.com/archives/press-release-august-jobs-additions-great-news-if-you-want-to-wait-tables/


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Press Release: August Jobs Additions: Great News If You Want to Wait Tables


It seems our economic growth may be gradually slowing to a standstill. In August, the U.S. economy posted the weakest job additions in five months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This is despite the unemployment rate ticking down to a seven-year low (5.1%).

On the bright side, Dent Research finds that the majority of the 140,000 private-sector jobs were created above the median wage line. However, further analysis reveals continued weakness in middle-paying jobs.

Just like last month, middle-income workers get left behind in what we’ve been calling the “U-shaped recovery” in jobs. The job additions reflect a clear preference towards the highest and lowest paying industries. Just 14% of newly-created jobs went to the middle third of the wage scale. Meanwhile we saw equal strength in the lowest and highest thirds, with each sharing 43% of August’s hires.

The most alarming takeaway is that nearly 30% of the job gains fell in the lowest wage bucket. Restaurants and bars were the biggest winners in August, alone adding over 26,000 workers. But these jobs pay an industry average hourly wage of just $12.85. Hardly an inspiration.

Rodney Johnson, co-founder of Dent Research, is concerned by this growing trend.

“When you look inside the report, the “U” shape of jobs creation by income must stand for ugly,” he states. “While more jobs were created above median, there was a massive build at the low end, and losses in between. The middle class continues to suffer.” This apparent segregation in job additions is a pattern we need to keep a close eye on in the coming months.

Each month we produce a detailed chart depicting where the job additions fall along the wage scale. You can see the full results below, showing that the latest balance of jobs was created below the median wage:

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Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.

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The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.

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Loki
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stubby
5 Sep 2015, 02:05 PM
Evidence?

You seem to want your gloom both ways. First you reference "GloomBoomDoom"'s link as evidence of "the destruction of the US middle class in one chart".

Now you claim that the rising prospects of the underclass, as shown in that chart, are actually being usurped by the middle-class. Or more particularly, by 18-24 year olds "mostly with college degrees", who mysteriously qualify for the "less than high-school diploma" cohort shown in the chart.

Consistency isn't your strong point, is it?

:lol :lol :lol
You're right. My mistake, and for that I apologise.

It is certainly a great thing that the US workforce is becoming less educated. Lower wages and higher profits for the rich.

Happy now?


“Talk sense to a fool and he calls you foolish.” - Euripides
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Mike
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Poontang
5 Sep 2015, 02:51 PM
The most alarming takeaway is that nearly 30% of the job gains fell in the lowest wage bucket. Restaurants and bars were the biggest winners in August, alone adding over 26,000 workers. But these jobs pay an industry average hourly wage of just $12.85. Hardly an inspiration.


So 70% of new jobs created went to higher paying jobs, well that is good news. Some here trying to convince us all new jobs created are low paying. In reality only 30% of new jobs were low paying, which is probably proportionate to the population that typically work these jobs over the longer term. That is good news.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Terry
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Mike
5 Sep 2015, 03:07 PM
So 70% of new jobs created went to higher paying jobs, well that is good news. Some here trying to convince us all new jobs created are low paying. In reality only 30% of new jobs were low paying, which is probably proportionate to the population that typically work these jobs over the longer term. That is good news.
Irrelevant. If 70% went to 10% of job classifications and composition, that is not necessarily good news for the majority.
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The Whole Truth
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The stockmarket is the true indicator of a strength of an economy. They US market is telling us that businesses are overvalued, hence things are not well in business, hence the economy is weaker than it was even 6 montjs ago. Mike is an idiot, the job numbers are manipulated and mean nothing.
"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Stuart Mill
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newjez
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The Whole Truth
5 Sep 2015, 06:29 PM
The stockmarket is the true indicator of a strength of an economy. They US market is telling us that businesses are overvalued, hence things are not well in business, hence the economy is weaker than it was even 6 montjs ago. Mike is an idiot, the job numbers are manipulated and mean nothing.
No, I really don't think that's true.

There are much better measures of an economy than the stock market.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Loki
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newjez
6 Sep 2015, 12:57 AM
No, I really don't think that's true.

There are much better measures of an economy than the stock market.
Such as?


“Talk sense to a fool and he calls you foolish.” - Euripides
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newjez
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Loki
6 Sep 2015, 09:51 AM
Such as?
Pretty much everything that is used to measure an economy.

The stock markets measure the ability to perform over the foreseeable and not foreseeable but predictable future.

There can be a relationship, but essentially they are different things.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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John Frum
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Mike
5 Sep 2015, 12:18 PM
US job numbers lower then expect but August always is, start of new school year in the US. The numbers will be revised up strongly in the next couple of months. Hours worked increased and wages increased, unemployment rate fell from 5.3% to 5.1%. GDP growth for 2nd quarter 3.7% with most indicators showing this strength continued into the 3rd quarter. The Fed will raise rates in the next 2 months.

Thanks for the running commentary, but we all got the details for the jobs figures on Marketwatch when they were released on Friday.

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I actually think we will see a flood of capital headed our way, already happening.


If there was a 'flood of capital' coming in now our dollar would be not be getting pulverised to the extent that it is.

Considering the trouble economists are having picking the bottom with both AUD and commodity prices at the moment, it's likely that potential overseas investors will be wary of catching a falling knife.

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To me this signals wealthy people in Asia or corrupt ones moving large amounts of money to safe havens.


really? To me the provision of a lower trading range for the Yuan by the CCP signals a concert move to cut down on capital flight. They'll be knocking on Canberra's door as we speak.

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Not only to preserve their wealth but to give them a place to live if things get really bad in Asia. Like an insurance policy for the wealthy. Normal rules for investor do not apply, many of these buyers do not care about capital growth only that a majority of their money is safe plus a place to live in a safe modern society.


Typical yellow peril spruiker speak, not worth dignifying with a response.

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The falling Australian dollar should only increase this influence. For Perth it should only be a small part of the market but for cities like Sydney and Melbourne it could be a huge issue. The money pouring into Australian property will turn into a tidal wave. The Government will need to take strong action as it could distort our property markets badly, much to the detriment of local buyers.


Flood! tidal wave! Tsunami! Help!!!!!!!

The flawed assumption you and other investors in our housing market keep making is that the RBA/Government will continue to have all the necessary regulatory and monetary firepower to sustain lower interest rates to keep valuations high. They pay scant regard for how precipitous the situation really is right now.

This is all about to change.
Edited by John Frum, 6 Sep 2015, 10:51 AM.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness.
"Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
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Loki
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newjez
6 Sep 2015, 10:15 AM
Pretty much everything that is used to measure an economy.

Such as?

Quote:
 
The stock markets measure the ability to perform over the foreseeable and not foreseeable but predictable future.

There can be a relationship, but essentially they are different things.

Aren't stock prices the perceived NPV of future cashflows?


“Talk sense to a fool and he calls you foolish.” - Euripides
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