On a more serious note, there have now been 4 attempts in this correction for the index to get to and stay below 5000, with strong support being evident even in the presence of negative offshore leads. It is looking increasingly unlikely that 5000 support will be broken IMO - ie it is likely (but not certain!) that we have seen the bottom of this years correction now (and as previously posted a 15%+ correction was likely due this year or next on pure technical & history). Although we still have to get through October.....
I hope it keeps rising and falling by 1-2% per day, that would be the best outcome for me. Just bouncing off 5000. Even better if it rose and fell 3-5% per day. Falling terms of trade will take a while to work their way through the economy and while construction is still this frothy, unemployment will probably hold for another quarter. All of the evidence points to a global recession emerging, and a huge recession forming in the US. I think the next rate movement in the US will be QE4, and then GS will cut twice to 1.5%
Since we are sharing crystal ball thoughts.
“Talk sense to a fool and he calls you foolish.” - Euripides
Well Terry. What do you invest in. What are you going to use to fund your retirement. What is your 100% fail safe asset.
What do you recommend? I'm quite interested in selling businesses, particularly to Japanese companies expanding across SEA. Sorry can't give you any IMOs that I think are relevant to you.
I like SBM, that is why I am keeping 150000 of them.
Next year looks very promising for BDR on a rising gold price and falling AUD.
GOR I see more as a takeover target in the short to medium term.
EVN is appealing too.
Good thing you kept some SBM. Closed at 91.5 today. Wife wanted to kiss the CEO, she said. Nah, I said. I've met him.. he's fat. Good guy though. Has that "CEO Odour.." I looked at BDR. Wasn't too keen. But yeah. A longer term play mebbe? Much more liked DRM who have a similar story to SBM, and climbing. I bought 20,000 yesterday for a paddle in the pond.
Poontang
25 Sep 2015, 03:15 PM
I like SBM, that is why I am keeping 150000 of them.
Next year looks very promising for BDR on a rising gold price and falling AUD.
GOR I see more as a takeover target in the short to medium term.
EVN is appealing too.
Just saw your EVN plug. They do look good.. Cheers.
Looks like the market might finish in the red again. Been a bad couple of weeks for the punters I am afraid.
And almost immediately as you posted that the index popped up into the green! Classic, again! .
Are you referring to my call and the fact the market closed in the red again.
"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Stuart Mill
And almost immediately as you posted that the index popped up into the green! Classic, again! It's more likely to be a pretty flat close today I think - maybe slightly up or down.
On a more serious note, there have now been 4 attempts in this correction for the index to get to and stay below 5000, with strong support being evident even in the presence of negative offshore leads. It is looking increasingly unlikely that 5000 support will be broken IMO - ie it is likely (but not certain!) that we have seen the bottom of this years correction now (and as previously posted a 15%+ correction was likely due this year or next on pure technical & history). Although we still have to get through October.....
Big Europe bounce!
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
Another big red day, asx200 kicked under 5000 again and allords poised to follow. I'll be optomistic and say both will close under 5000 today.
"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Stuart Mill
This bear market is like The Terminator for buy the dippers. It's unrelenting and keeps coming back at you with some high powered weapons: China, VW, Glencore. Can't wait to see the next bull bomb after Glencore.
The tide us rapidly going out and all those swimming naked are being exposed.
All ords just 8 points above the magic 5000 Stocks for the long run, VW, Glencore, Rio, pick your bankrupt shell.
"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Stuart Mill
It is hard to see how this will not affect the US. But I doubt the US will act in the East's interest. China acted to protect herself in the GFC. The US will do the same. What will happen when China liquidates its reserves?
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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